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題名:臺灣事故傷害對潛在生命年數、工作年數及社會經濟損失影響探討
書刊名:人口學刊
作者:林正祥 引用關係劉士嘉劉于琪
作者(外文):Lin, Cheng-hsiangLiu, Shih-chiaLiu, Yu-chyi
出版日期:2014
卷期:48
頁次:頁141-171
主題關鍵詞:事故傷害Lee-Carter模式ARIMA模式潛在生命年數損失工作年數損失AccidentLee-Carter modelARIMA modelYears of potential life lostWorking life lost
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:21
  • 點閱點閱:122
本研究利用衛生福利部所提供的「死因資料」,以事故傷害為例,就其影響潛在生命年數及社會經濟損失長期趨勢進行分析探討。除利用Lee-Carter模式探討1985-2009年事故傷害死亡率變化及預測未來趨勢外,並利用該模式求得之各年死亡率高低趨勢以非線性模式配適,並預測未來數年各年齡層事故傷害死亡率。另,針對事故傷害影響推算各年預期生命年數損失,以人力資本法算出其在各年所造成的工作年數社會經濟損失,最後利用時間序列ARIMA模式探討並預測事故傷害經濟損失變動趨勢。研究結果發現自1985-2009年,25年來事故傷害死亡率呈現上升再下降趨勢且在1989年達最高,每10萬人口就有70.04人死於事故傷害,若排除1999年因921大地震及2009年的莫拉克風災年份,在1989年後呈下降趨勢,另Lee-Carter模式所求得之各年死亡率高低趨勢以時間序列及非線性模式預測2010及2011年之事故傷害死亡率均得到良好的配適。就社會經濟損失方面,以2000年臺灣地區年中人口數為基準,在事故傷害方面所造成的每千人口潛在生命年數損失於1989年、1999年及2009年分別為31.13、21.44及10.06年;每千人口潛在工作年數損失為29.56、17.55及7.34年。另外,事故傷害死亡的社會經濟損失經2009年「消費者物價指數」(Consumer Price Index, 簡稱CPI)調整後,以1993年為最高490.37億元,而1999年經濟損失為410.15億元,在1999年後呈下降趨勢且在2009年經濟損失為165.79億元,25年來事故傷害造成的經濟損失減少37.52%。另外,以時間序列模式進行預測,事故傷害其未來3年的每千人口生命年數損失分別為8.86年、8.05年及7.23年;每千人口工作年數損失則為6.32年、5.52年及4.72年;經濟損失分別為147.55億元、127.89億元與108.23億元。
Accidents are always the most important problem related to the safety of people. In this study, we attempt to explore the trend of the effects of accidents in terms of years of potential life lost and economic loss in the past 25 years. The Lee-Carter Model is used for exploring the trend of death rate. The time-varying mortality index from the Lee-Carter model is fitted by a time series model and nonlinear model to predict future accident mortality rate. The years of potential life lost is calculated based on information about life expectancy, and the Human Capital Method is used to figure out the economic loss caused by accidents. Finally, a time series ARIMA model is applied to predict the economic loss caused by accidents. The results show that accident mortality rate has trended upward, then downward in the past 25 years; it peaked at 70.04 deaths per 100,000 population in 1989, then declined after 1989 (1999 and 2009 are excluded due to the extraordinary events of the 921 earthquake and Morak typhoon). In addition, a time series model and nonlinear model are used for fitting a time-varying mortality index k(t), providing good results for predicting accident mortality rates from 2010 to 2011. Using the population of Taiwan in 2000 as a standard, the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population caused by accidents were 31.13, 21.44, and 10.06 in 1989, 1999, and 2009 respectively; the years of working life lost per 1,000 population were 29.56, 17.55, and 7.34 in those same years. The economic loss caused by accidents after adjusting for 2009 CPI peaked at 490.37 billion NT dollars in 1993, then began falling after 1999's 410.15 billion NT dollars, reaching 165.79 billion NT dollars in 2009. From 1985 to 2009, the economic losses caused by accidents declined 37.52%. In addition, the predictions of time series models show that, due to accidents, the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population were 8.86, 8.05, and 7.23; the working life years lost per 1,000 were 6.32, 5.52, and 4.72; and the economic losses were 147.55, 127.89, and 108.23 billion NT dollars from 2010 to 2012 respectively.
期刊論文
1.Ekwueme, D. U.、Chesson, H. W.、Zhang, K. B.、Balamurugan, A.(2008)。Years of Potential Life Lost and Productivity Costs because of Cancer Mortality and for Specific Cancer Sites Where Human Papillomavirus May Be a Risk Factor for Carcinogenesis-United States, 2003。Cancer,113(10),2936-2945。  new window
2.Ekwueme, D. U.、Guy, G. P.、Li, C.、Rim, S. H.、Parelkar, P.、Chen, S. C.(2011)。The Health Burden and Economic Costs of Cutaneous Melanoma Mortality by Race/Ethnicity-United States, 2000 to 2006。Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology,65(5),133-143。  new window
3.Li, C.、Ekwueme, D. U.、Rim, S. H.、Tangka, F. K.(2010)。Years of Potential Life Lost and Productivity Losses from Male Urogenital Cancer Deaths-United States, 2004。Urology,76(3),528-535。  new window
4.Wilmoth, J. R.(1993)。Computational Methods for Fitting and Extrapolating the Lee-Carter Model of Mortality Change。National Institute on Aging,1,1-19。  new window
5.呂宗學、江東亮(20060600)。事故傷害外因註碼:國際疾病分類第九版與第十版之比較。臺灣公共衛生雜誌,25(3),242-251。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.陳立慧、林茂榮、王榮德(19931200)。機動車交通事故之死亡率、潛在生命年數損失及其貨幣價值。中華民國公共衛生學會雜誌,12(4),368-379。  延伸查詢new window
7.Gardner, J. W.、Sanborn, J. S.(1990)。Years of potential life lost (YPLL) --what does it measure?。Epidemiology,1(4),322-329。  new window
8.邱淑媞、曹昭懿、王榮德(19931200)。1974-90年間臺灣地區老年人口意外災害死亡率及潛在生命損失之分析。中華民國公共衛生學會雜誌,12(4),405-420。  延伸查詢new window
9.賴建丞、白璐、蔡行瀚、簡戊鑑、張瑋庭、林佳欣、洪宇箴(20090600)。臺灣1986-2007年事故傷害死亡趨勢分析。北市醫學雜誌,6(3),174-184。  延伸查詢new window
10.Ljung, Greta M.、Box, George E. P.(1978)。On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models。Biometrika,65(2),297-303。  new window
11.潘怜燕、邱淑媞(20110400)。臺灣地區1991~2007年男女性之健康差距:以平均餘命、死亡率及潛在生命年數損失為指標。臺灣公共衛生雜誌,30(2),135-149。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Lee, Ronald D.、Carter, Lawrence R.(1992)。Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality。Journal of the American Statistical Association,87(419),659-671。  new window
13.黃意萍、余清祥(20021200)。臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究。人口學刊,25,145-171。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.曾奕翔、余清祥(2006)。Lee-Carter估計模式與死亡率推估研究。2006年台灣人口學會年會暨學術研討會,中華民國人口學會 (會議日期: 2006/05/26-05/27)。臺北:台灣人口學會。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.行政院衛生福利部統計處。死因統計。  延伸查詢new window
2.楊銘欽、李玉春(1992)。我國吸菸經濟成本之研究期末報告。台北:衛生福利部國民健康署。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.陳經緯(2003)。強制騎乘機車配戴安全帽政策之成本效益分析(碩士論文)。中國醫藥學院。  延伸查詢new window
2.劉于琪(2012)。臺灣事故傷害死亡對潛在生命年數及社會經濟損失影響探討(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.陳麗華(2001)。國民潛在生命年數損失之變動。台北:衛生福利部統計處。  延伸查詢new window
2.Box, G. E. P.、Jenkins, G. M.、Reinsel, G. C.(1976)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。San Francisco:Holden-Day。  new window
其他
1.行政院主計處。衛生統計、勞工統計、物價統計,http://ebas1.ebas.gov.tw/pxweb/Dialog/statfile9L.asp, 2012/12/10。  延伸查詢new window
2.行政院主計處,經建會(2009)。中華民國臺灣地區人力運用調查報告,臺北。  延伸查詢new window
3.內政部統計處。臺灣地區簡易生命表,http://sowf.moi.gov.tw/stat/Life/quary-1age.htm#taiwan-a-title.gif, 2012/12/10。  new window
圖書論文
1.Lewis, E. B.(1982)。Control of Body Segment Differentiation in Drosophila by the Bithorax Gene Complex。Embryonic Development, Part A: Genetics Aspects。New York:Netherlands:Alan R. Liss, Inc.:Springer。  new window
 
 
 
 
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