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題名：臺灣總生育率再分析--ACF法的運用
書刊名：人口學刊
作者：王德睦 引用關係／劉一龍 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wang, Te-mu／Liu, Yilong
出版日期：2008
卷期：36
頁次：頁37-65
主題關鍵詞：總生育率；生育步調；B-F法；SVD模型；ACF法；TFR；Tempo effect；B-F method；SVD model；ACF measure
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(4) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:23
  • 點閱點閱:46
灣總生育率（TFR）的持續下跌引發眾多討論，TFR 為一種估計測量，容易受婦女生育的數量（quantum）與步調（tempo，又稱生育的時間效果）之變化而影響，由於許多國家調查的「理想子女數」仍保持在兩名水準，但是TFR 卻遠低於替換水準，BongaartsandFenny （1998）認為這是生育步調延後所致，婦女實際的生育水準不若觀察值那樣低。不少學者提出調整方法，希望降低婦女生育步調的影響，以獲得實際的生育水準，其中，Bongaarts 等人提出的B-F法運用最為廣泛，然而，B-F 法只是去除生育時間效果後的總生育率調整值，依舊無法代表實際生育水準，必須以其他方法來探討女性的生育水準。我們藉由Schoen（2004）的ACF 法來調整TFR ，只是ACF 法得待所有婦女完成生育方能運用，本文乃透過LiandWu（2003）建議的SVD 模型推估未完成生育之年輪未來的生育率。本文使用B-F法與ACF 法來調整1980 年至2005 年台灣的TFR ，經過比較，ACF 法的結果比BF 法之估計更加接近CFR ，二種結果都指出目前台灣婦女之生育水準仍高於千分之1300（2005 年B-F 法之結果為千分之1545，ACF 法的結果為千分之1399），調整值雖未落入「超低生育水準（lowestlow）」，但也不若「理想子女數」高。
The TFR in Taiwan has declined more rapidly and pervasively than was expected. The TFR is a hypothetical measure, which can be influenced by two distinct parts: a ‘quantum’ component and a 'tempo' component. ‘Many countries’ ‘desired children number’ is kept at 2, but the TFR is far below 2. Bongaarts and Fenny criticized the TFR due to the changes in the timing of child bearing. Therefore, they announced the B-F method to shed the timing effect in order to more reliably capture fertility. However the tempo-free TFR method still can't represent the reality of fertility; we have to make use of other measures. We employed Liand Wu's SVD model and Schoen's ACF method to adjust the 1980-2005 TFR in Taiwan. The output of the ACF method was closer to the CFR. Both findings of the B-F method and ACF measure indicated that the TFR in Taiwan was above 1.3, the lowest-low fertility level. But the adjusted TFRs still did not reach 2.
期刊論文
1.Bongaarts, J.(2002)。The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World。Population and Development Review，28(3)，419-443。  new window
2.Kohler, Hans-Peter、Philipov, D.(2001)。Variance Effects in the Bongaarts-feeney Formula。Demography，38(1)，1-16。  new window
3.Li, Nan、Wu, Zheng(2003)。Forecasting Cohort Incomplete Fertility: A Method and an Application。Population Studies，57(3)，303-320。  new window
4.Lutz, Wolfgang、Skirbekk, Vegard(2005)。Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low-Fertility Countries。Population and Development Review，31(4)，699-720。  new window
5.Schoen, R.(2004)。Timing Effects and the Interpretation of Period Fertility。Demography，41(4)，801-819。  new window
6.Van, Imhoff E.、N. Keilman.(2000)。On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment。Population and Development Review，26，549-553。  new window
7.Lutz, W.、O'Neill, B. C.、Scherbov, S.(2003)。Europe's Population at a Turning Point。Science，299(28)，1991-1992。  new window
8.Philipov,D.、KohlerH.-P.(2001)。Tempo Fertility Decline in the Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulargia, the Czech Republic, Hungry, Poland, and Russia。European Journal of Population，17(1)，37-60。  new window
9.Van, Imhoff, E.(2001)。On the Impossibility of Inferring Cohort Fertility Measures from Period Fertility Measures。Demographic Research，5，23-64。  new window
10.Kohler, Hans-Peter、Billari, F. C.、Ortega, J. A.(2002)。The Emergence of Lowest Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s。Population and Development review，28(4)，641-680。  new window
11.劉一龍、王德睦(20050600)。臺灣地區總生育率的分析：完成生育率與生育步調之變化。人口學刊，30，97-123。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Tu, Edward Jow Ching、Zhang, Xia(20041200)。Patterns of Low Fertility in Hong Kong and Taiwan。國家發展研究，4(1)，31-82。new window  new window
13.McDonald, Peter(2006)。Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy。Population and Development Review，32(3)，485-510。  new window
14.Bongaarts, John、Feeney, Griffith(1998)。On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility。Population and Development Review，24(2)，271-291。  new window
15.Lee, Ronald D.、Carter, Lawrence R.(1992)。Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality。Journal of the American Statistical Association，87(419)，659-671。  new window
16.黃意萍、余清祥(20021200)。臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究。人口學刊，25，145-171。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Lesthaeghe, Ron(2001)。Postponement and Recuperation: Recent Fertility Trends and Forecasts in Six Western European Countries。IUSSP Seminar on International Perspectives on Low Fertility: Trends, Theories and Policies。  new window
18.Ryder, N. B.(1964)。The Process of Demographic。Demography，1，74-82。  new window
19.Hajnal, J.(1947)。The Analysis of Birth Statistics in the Light of the Recent International Recovery of the Birth-rate。Population Studies，1，137-164。  new window
20.Smallwood, S.(2002)。The Effect of Changes in Timing of Childbearing on Measuring Fertility in England and Wales。Population Trends，19，36-45。  new window
21.Kim, Y. J.、Schoen, R.(2000)。Changes in Timing and Measurement of Fertility。Population and Development Review，26，554-559。  new window
22.曾毅、Land, K. C.(2001)。A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bongaarts-feeney Method for Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates。Demography，38，17-28。  new window
23.曾毅、Land, K. C.(2002)。Adjusting Period Tempo Changes with an Extension of Ryder's Basic Translation Equation。Demography，39，269-285。  new window
24.Bongaarts, J.(1999)。The Fertility Impact of Changes in the Timing of Childbearing in the Developing World。Population Studies，53，277-289。  new window
25.Evans, M. D. R.(1986)。American Fertility Patterns: A Comparison of White and Nonwhite Cohort Born 1903-1956。Population and Development Review，12(2)，267-293。  new window
26.Lesthaeghe, Ron、Willems, P.(1999)。Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?。Population and Development Review，25(2)，211-228。  new window
27.Frejka, T.、Calot, G.(2001)。Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-fertility Countries。Population and Development Review，27(1)，103-132。  new window
28.Knodel, John Vipan Prachuabmoh Ruffolo、Ratanalangkarn, Pakamas、Wongboonsin, Kua(1996)。Reproductive Preferences and Fertility Trends in Posttransition Thailand。Studies in Family Planning，27(6)，307-318。  new window
29.Sobotka, Tomá(2004)。Is Lowest-low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing。Population and Development Review，30(2)，195-220。  new window
30.Ryder, N.B.(1964)。The Process of Demographic。Demography，1，74-82。  new window
31.Smallwood, S.(2002)。The Effect of Changes in Timing of Childbearing on Measuring Fertility in England and Wales。Population Trends，19，36-45。  new window
32.Sobotka, Tomá(2004)。Is Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing。Population and Development Review，30(2)，195-220。  new window
33.Zeng,Yi、K.C.Land.(2001)。A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney Method for Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates。Demography，38，17-28。  new window
34.Zeng,Yi、K.C.Land.(2002)。Adjusting Period Tempo Changes with an Extension of Ryder's Basic Translation Equation。Demography，39，269-285。  new window
35.Evans, M. D. R.(1986)。American Fertility Patterns: A Comparison of White and Nonwhite Cohort Born 1903-1956。Population and Development Review，12(2)，267-293。  new window
36.Frejka,T.、G. Calot.(2001)。CohortReproductivePatternsinLow-Fertility Countries。Population and Development Review，27(1)，103-132。  new window
37.Hajnal, J.(1947)。The Analysis of Birth Statistics in the Light of the Recent International Recovery of the Birth-rate。Population Studies，1，137-164。  new window
38.Kim, Y. J.、R. Schoen.(2000)。Changes in Timing and Measurement of Fertility。Population and Development Review，26，554-559。  new window
39.Knodel、John Vipan Prachuabmoh Ruffolo、Pakamas Ratanalangkarn、KuaWongboonsin(1996)。Reproductive Preferences and Fertility Trends in Post transition Thailand。Studies in Family Planning，27(6)，307-318。  new window
40.Lesthaeghe, Ron、P. Willems.(1999)。Is Low fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?。Population and Development Review，25(2)，211-228。  new window
41.Bongaarts, J.(1999)。The Fertility Impact of Changes in the Timing of Childbearing in the Developing World。Population Studies，53，277-289。  new window
會議論文
1.Sobotka, Tomá(2003)。Postponement of Childbearing and Future Fertility Recuperation in Europe。0。  new window
2.楊靜利、李大正(2007)。臺灣出生與死亡資料之編製與調整：1905-1943與1951-1997。0。  延伸查詢new window
3.楊靜利、李大正(2007)。台灣出生與死亡資料之編製與調整:1905-1943 與1951-1997。台北。  延伸查詢new window
4.Lesthaeghe,Ron.(2001)。Postponement and Recuperation: Recent Fertility Trends and Forecasts in Six Western European Countries。Tokyo。  new window
5.Sobotka, Tomá.(2003)。Postponement of Childbearing and Future Fertility Recuperation in Europe。  new window
其他
1.(2008)。婦女婚育與就業調查，0。  延伸查詢new window
2.(2008)。婦女、家庭與生育保健調查系列，0。  延伸查詢new window
3.行政院主計處網站(2008)。婦女婚育與就業調查，http://www.dgbas.， 20080531。  延伸查詢new window
4.衛生署國民健康局網站(2008)。婦女、家庭與生育保健調查系列，http://www.bhp.doh.gov.tw/BHPnet/Portal/Them.aspx?， 20080531。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Ryder, Norman B.(1983)。Cohort and Period Measures of changing Fertility。Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries, Vol. 2: Fertility Regulation and Institutional Influences。New York：Academic Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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