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題名:住宅市場處置效應之研究
書刊名:都市與計劃
作者:林左裕 引用關係傅聖元
作者(外文):Lin, Calvin Tso-yuFu, Sheng-yuan
出版日期:2015
卷期:42:3
頁次:頁273-294
主題關鍵詞:處置效應行為財務學展望理論不動產市場Disposition effectBehavior financeProspect theoryReal estate market
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:35
  • 點閱點閱:77
「處置效應」(Disposition Effect)在證券市場之文獻上為股市投資人在利得區間有風險嫌惡,且在損失區間有損失嫌惡的傾向時,面對持股會呈現「出盈保虧」或「處分獲利、續抱虧損」的投資決策傾向,但在房地產市場的探討卻鮮見相關研究。本研究選取中古屋之成交量為觀察對象,當市場報酬率有所變動,投資人的買賣行為將會反映在成交量上,故由成交量的變化方向與幅度即可推論出相關之處置效應。研究結果指出,在前期報酬率持續為正或由負轉正時,出盈現象顯著存在於台北市中古屋市場;而前期持續的負報酬率會使成交量萎縮,亦顯著呈現保虧效應。在實務意涵上,政府的奢侈稅政策並未控制高漲的房價,僅是使投資者延後出脫導致成交量萎縮,可看出奢侈稅實施後的中古屋市場呈現價漲量縮的現象,並未符合政府原先預期的抑制房價上漲效應。本研究成果可提供政府未來修訂不動產稅制及貨幣政策之有效參考。
The "Disposition Effect" indicates that investors in the stock markets tend to sell to realize the profit as they are "in the money", and hold securities to avoid loss as they are "out of the money". Similar investors' behaviors in the real estate markets are rarely explored. In Taiwan, continuously surging home prices have severely deteriorated home affordability. Underlying factors causing the high housing prices include low tax rate and low interest rates. To analyze investor behavior in the housing markets, this study analyzes the transaction volume in the existing housing market in relation to market return. The empirical results show that investors in the existing housing markets tend to sell to realize profits as the returns stay positive or turn from negative to positive. However, investors tend to hold to avoid loss as the returns stay negative. This conclusion is consistent with the investor behavior of stock markets. The analytical results of this study also imply that the "Luxury Tax" imposed on short-term real estate investment only postpones their timing to sell. However, housing prices continue to appreciate. Results of this study have important implications for policy makers and investors for decision making in the future.
期刊論文
1.黃佳鈴、張金鶚(20051100)。從房地價格分離探討地價指數之建立。臺灣土地研究,8(2),73-106。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.花敬群、張金鶚(19970100)。住宅市場價量波動之研究。住宅學報,5,1-15。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Ortalo-Magne, F.、Rady, S.(2006)。Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraint。Review of Economic Studies,73(2),459-485。  new window
4.Barber, B. M.、Odean, T.(2011)。The behavior of individual investors。SSRN Electronic Journal,2011,1-54。  new window
5.Tu, Y.、Ong, S. E.、Han, Y.(2009)。Turnovers and housing price dynamics: Evidence from Singapore condominium market。The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,38(3),254-274。  new window
6.Yiu, C. Y E.、Chau, K. W.、Wong, S. K.(2008)。What makes housing owners hold。SSRN Electronic Journal,2008,1-17。  new window
7.林左裕、程于芳(20140600)。影響不動產市場之從眾行為與總體經濟因素之研究。應用經濟論叢,95,61-99。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Shefrin, Hersh、Statman, Meir(1985)。The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence。The Journal of Finance,40(3),777-790。  new window
9.陳明吉、曾琬婷(20081000)。臺灣不動產市場從眾行為之檢視。管理與系統,15(4),591-615。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Kahneman, Daniel、Tversky, Amos(1979)。Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,47(2),263-292。  new window
11.Genesove, David、Mayer, Christopher(2001)。Nominal loss aversion and seller behavior: Evidence from the housing market。Quarterly Journal of Economics,116(4),1233-1260。  new window
12.Chang, Eric C.、Cheng, Joseph W.、Khorana, Ajay(2000)。An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective。Journal of Banking and Finance,24(10),1651-1679。  new window
13.Stein, J. C.(1995)。Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects。Quarterly Journal of Economy,110(2),379-406。  new window
14.Janssen, Jos、Kruijt, Bert、Needham, Barrie(1994)。The Honeycomb Cycle in Real Estate。Journal of Real Estate Research,9(2),237-251。  new window
其他
1.行政院主計總處(2010)。人口及住宅普查報告,http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItm=30077&ctNode=3272, 2013/09/01。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.許易民(2008)。台灣房地產業景氣循環之影響與對策。經建專題研究綜合規劃研究96及97年。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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