近年不少議員對澳門假釋的斟酌處理時有批評，認為假釋的過程存在不公平和不可預 測性。以關注焦點理論的框架分析監獄管理者的決定，使用雙變數及多變數統計學方法，對 2008 至2010 年之間的752 個監獄建議方案作出定量分析，結果表明，在監獄建議上有清晰和嚴格的 模式。機構的不當行為及前科很大程度上是監獄建議的首要考慮條件。當作出假釋決定時，監獄 管理者應考慮社會安全與內部秩序安全等。

The discretionary nature of parole in Macau has been in recent years, and from time to time, an object of criticisms from members of the Legislative Assembly. Basically, senators showed concerns about the power of decisionmakers (prison administrators, judges) to determine who’s coming out earlier (granting parole release) and who’s staying longer in prison (denying or postponing it), about the alleged opacity in criteria for case evaluation, and about the consequent uncertainty for the eligible inmates. What those voices revealed was the assumption that parole decisions were unfair and unpredictable. In other words: parole decision-making was seen as game of chance. This article addresses the topic of parole, and focuses on the stage of release decisions. Through a quantitative analysis of prison recommendations for all the 752 cases at first consideration from 2008 through 2010, the study attempts to determine whether there is a pattern emerging from data, and what are the most salient criteria in those recommendations. A theoretical framework inspired by the theory of ‘focal concerns’ was adapted to the specific context of decision-making by prison administrators. Bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques were used to analyze data. Results provided evidence of a clear and very strict pattern in prison recommendations. In consequence, the presumed unpredictability in release decisions was not confirmed. In effect, it was found that a small number of factors, and especially two of them – institutional misconduct and prior convictions – predict to a great extent the outcome of prison recommendations at first consideration. Findings revealed that parole is primarily used as a mechanism of risk management, for controlling: (a) risks associated with future criminal behavior, and (b) risks associated with the breakdown of prisoners ’ discipline. In consequence, when making decisions on conditional release, prison managers are mainly concerned with the protection of the community and the maintenance of internal order and security.