:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:以大數據分析球員技術面表現、對戰組合與中華職棒歷年票房之相關性
書刊名:體育學報
作者:許懷中黃致豪 引用關係
作者(外文):Hsu, Huai-chungHuang, Chih-hao
出版日期:2017
卷期:50:特刊
頁次:頁79-90
主題關鍵詞:棒球數據棒球職業棒球票房運動大數據BaseballSabermetricsProfessional baseball attendanceSport big data
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:58
  • 點閱點閱:21
緒論:在棒球比賽中,賽場上有眾多元素能吸引現場觀眾,包括三振、盜壘、全壘打、投打對決等,而這些技術面表現,以及對戰組合,哪些真正能影響比賽票房,為本研究目的。研究團隊計算中職元年至27年間公開可取得的球員表現與票房之關係,以資料驅動(data-driven)的選模方法,由數據之間的關係以及資訊理論如關聯性分析、赤池信息量準則等歸納出最相關的表現參數。方法:本研究在不做任何假設的前提下,由網路爬蟲程式完整蒐集中華職棒大聯盟官網的1990到2016年每支球隊的各項數據,從6,870場比賽,714,480筆資料中歸納出中職各隊各年度之29項攻守數據,並藉由關聯性分析、線性回歸模型進行解釋性分析,剖析球隊對戰、選手表現數據包括球隊的勝率、安打數、全壘打數、保送數、三振數、為哪一隊等,對於各隊年度票房之影響,再以大數據自動建模方式將上述數據結合球隊因素,與中華職棒從創始到2016年的27年間的各隊票房做相關性分析。結果:研究結果發現全壘打、盜壘數、打者被三振頻率、失誤數、投手不被全壘打的能力、是否為兄弟象及是否為中信鯨為對球迷進場票房影響最大的幾個因素,選出模型的決定係數(R2)為0.76,解釋力十分優秀,模型內變數之p值全數小於.05。結論:球團可依此研究做為挑選新秀之方針之一,而球員也可以依研究結果加強訓練重點,所有進場球迷最想看到的是拚勁與專注度,所以失誤對票房有最大的負面影響。而全壘打的激情、將球打進場內讓球迷看到精采攻防、投手壓制對手的能力則是對票房有最大的正面幫助。
Introduction: The Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) has been in operation for 28 years and, among all factors of player performance, including stealing bases, homeruns, strike outs, we want to find out what are the most important factors affecting fan attendance. Method: In this research, we use big data, auto model selection method to look for significant factors from all performance associated numbers, including winning percentage, hits, home runs, walks, strikeouts, and 23 other team statistics. We use a crawler program to collect data from the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) website and exam the teams' performance in more than six thousand games versus the fans' attendance of the games from 1990 to 2016, 27 years in total. We use auto model selection to find the best model and coefficients, and the most relevant factors to the fan attendance. Result: We found that errors, home runs, K/AB, steals, and pitchers' HR/AB are the most important factors that affect the attendance of CPBL. The R^2 of the selected model is 0.76, which is high correlated. All the p values in the model are less than .05. Conclusion: While errors is an indication to the fans that a player is not focused and thus drive the fans away, home runs, stealing bases, strike outs and the pitchers ability to prevent homeruns are all important factors to attract fans. The clubs can have these ideas in mind when they draft and trade players. And coaches can adjust the team's style of playing. Fans rather see the players they support play actively, stealing some bases, than wait for a walk passively.
期刊論文
1.Regan, C. S.(2012)。The price of efficiency: Examining the effects of payroll efficiency on Major League Baseball attendance。Applied Economics Letters,19(11),1007-1015。  new window
2.王忠茂(20050900)。2003-2004年中華職棒大聯盟觀眾人數之分析。中華體育季刊,19(3)=74,53-60。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.廖主民、黃鈴雯、何鈺雯(20080900)。職棒球迷支持因素、戰績歸因對球迷忠誠度之預測。體育學報,41(3),43-54。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.施致平、黃蕙娟、倪瑛蓮(20100600)。中華職棒比賽勝負預測模式之建構。體育學報,43(2),115-130。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Schmidt, M. B.、Berri, D. J.(2001)。Competitive balance and attendance: The case of Major League Baseball。Journal of Sports Economics,2(2),145-167。  new window
6.Cebula, R. J.(2013)。A panel data analysis of the impacts of regional economic factors, marketing and promotions, and team performance on minor league baseball attendance。The Annals Of Regional Science,51(3),695-710。  new window
7.陳成業(20151200)。環境心理學觀點探討運動賽會場館氣氛。體育學報,48(4),417-430。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Ahn, S. C.、Lee, Y. H.(2014)。Major League Baseball attendance。Journal of Sports Economics,15(5),451-477。  new window
9.Davis, M. C.(2008)。The interaction between baseball attendance and winning percentage: A VAR analysis。International Journal of Sport Finance,3(1),58。  new window
10.Kuhn, M.(2008)。Care package。Journal of Statistical Software,28(5),1-26。  new window
11.莊忠柱、陳天賜、姚為守(20040900)。職業棒球主場觀眾人數的影響因素之探討--以中華職棒聯盟為例。體育學報,37,163-175。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Knowles, G.、Sherony, K.、Haupert, M.(1992)。The demand for Major League Baseball: A test of the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis。The American Economist,36(2),72-80。  new window
13.陳成業(20160600)。觀賞性運動賽會服務品質:量表發展與驗證。體育學報,49(2),195-207。new window  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.王志源(2008)。體驗行銷要素、體驗價值與涉入程度對中華職棒觀眾再購意願之影響(碩士論文)。國立臺灣師範大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.蔡銘仁(2014)。職棒觀眾涉入度與觀賽行為之關聯性研究(碩士論文)。中國文化大學,臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
3.Lim, N.(2017)。Examining professional baseball attendance determinants: A multilevel analysis of Major League Baseball (MLB) Seasons(博士論文)。Indiana University。  new window
圖書
1.Demmert, H. G.(1973)。The economics of professional team sports。Lexington Books。  new window
2.Gennaro, V.(2013)。Diamond dollars: The economics of winning in baseball。Diamond Analytics。  new window
3.Moore, D. S.、Notz, W.、Fligner, M. A.(2013)。The basic practice of statistics。W. H. Freeman。  new window
其他
1.中華職棒大聯盟全球資訊網(2017)。中華職棒歷年各隊逐場攻守數據,http://www.cpbl.com.tw/。  延伸查詢new window
2.棒球統計(2013)。各項棒球數據計算方法,http://twbsball.dils.tku.edu.tw/wiki/index.php/棒球統計。  延伸查詢new window
3.Baseball Almanac, Inc.(2017)。Kansas city royals fan attendance data,http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/kcratte.shtml。  new window
4.ESPN(2017)。NBA games attendance,http://www.espn.com/nba/attendance。  new window
5.Ripley, B.,Venables, B.,Bates, P. M.,Hornik, K.,Gebhard, A.,Firth, D.,Ripley, M. B.(2013)。Package 'MASS',https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MASS/MASS.pdf。  new window
圖書論文
1.Noll, R. G.(1974)。Attendance and price setting。Government and the Sports Business。Washington, DC:The Brookings Institution。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
無相關點閱
 
QR Code
QRCODE