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題名:貶值有利於臺灣的貿易嗎?
書刊名:臺灣企業績效學刊
作者:江怡慧 引用關係蕭博旭范筑媛陳宜佑彭詩珈
作者(外文):Chiang, Yi-huiHsiao, Po-shuFan, Chu-yuanChen, Yi-yuPeng, Shih-chia
出版日期:2016
卷期:10:1
頁次:頁1-16
主題關鍵詞:匯率貿易偏最小平方法Exchange rateExportsPartial least squarePLS
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:33
  • 點閱點閱:39
身為出口導向的經濟體,台灣面臨著貿易競爭對手的貶值競爭中。台灣是否也該採貶值策略?匯率貶值真的有助於台灣的出口貿易?如果是,程度如何?如果不是,是為什麼?本文以台灣在2002-2012 年間的國家及產業層級的數據為研究對象,並利用偏最小平方法(Partial Least Squares;簡稱PLS)路徑分析法(Path Analysis)及六個假設,來探討匯率和貿易的關係。研究結果發現,匯率對總體因素呈負向影響關係;貿易量對總體因素呈正向影響關係;匯率對廠商ASUS 及HTC 績效呈負向影響關係;匯率對於台灣的貿易量呈負向影響關係;亦即匯率的升貶值並不與貿易量呈同向的變動關係。此研究結果可提供出口商、決策者及相關單位進行貿易規劃時之參考。
As an export-oriented economy, Taiwan is facing depreciated competition among trade partners. Does depreciation of the exchange rate boost Taiwan's trade? If yes, how large is it? If not, why not? This study tested six hypotheses derived from using the partial least squares (PLS) method, country-level and business-level data during the period of 2001-2012. Tests found that the depreciation of the exchange rate has negative impacts on macro factors; total trade has positive impacts on macro factors; depreciation of the exchange rate has negative impacts on total trade, if other conditions constrained. That is, the exchange rate depreciation does not boost Taiwan's trade. The result of this study can provide insights for exporters, policymakers and relevant stakeholders.
期刊論文
1.De Grauwe, P.(1988)。Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade。IMF Staff Papers,35(1),63-84。  new window
2.Asseery, A.、Peel, D. A.(1991)。The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports: Some New Estimates。Economics Letters,37(2),173-177。  new window
3.Sambamurthy, V.、Chin, W. W.(1994)。The effects of group attitudes toward alternative GDSS designs on the decision-making performance of computer-supported groups。Decision Sciences,25(2),215-241。  new window
4.Taggart, J. M.、Taggart, J. H.(1988)。Exchange Rate Effects and Competitive Performance: A Comparison of UK and Irish Firms Exporting to the EU。Irish Marketing Review,10(2),43-52。  new window
5.Koray, F.、Lastrapes, W. D.(1989)。Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach。Review of Economics and Statistics,71(4),708-712。  new window
6.Haenlein, M.、Kaplan, A. M.(2004)。A beginner's guide to partial least squares analysis。Understanding Statistics,3(4),283-297。  new window
7.Fountas, S.、Bredin, D.(1998)。Exchange rate volatility and exports: the case of Ireland。Applied Economics Letters,5(5),301-304。  new window
8.Kunst, R. M.、Marin, D.(1989)。On Exports and Productivity: a Causal Analysis。The Review of Economics and Statistics,71(4),699-703。  new window
9.Bo, H.、Sterken, E.(2002)。Volatility of the interest rate, debt and firm investment: Dutch evidence。Journal of Corporate Finance,8(2),179-193。  new window
10.王儷容(20120700)。匯率與貿易關聯面面觀--WTO「匯率與貿易」研討會紀實。經濟前瞻,142,58-63。  延伸查詢new window
11.Cushman, D. O.(1983)。The effects if real exchange rate risk during the floating period。Journal of International Economics,15(1/2),45-63。  new window
12.Fountas, S.(2000)。Some evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis for Ireland。Applied Economics Letters,7(4),211-214。  new window
13.Hooper, P.、Kohlhagen, S.(1978)。The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the price and volume of international trade。Journal of International Economics,8(4),483-511。  new window
14.Itagaki, T.(1981)。The theory of the multinational firm under exchange rate uncertainty。Canadian Journal of Economics,14(2),276-297。  new window
15.Gordon, D. V.、Sakyi-Bekoe, K.(1993)。Testing the export-growth hypothesis: Some parametric and nonparametric results for Ghana。Applied Economics,25(4),553-563。  new window
16.Shan, Jordan、Sun, Fiona(1998)。On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China。Applied Economics,30(8),1055-1065。  new window
17.Fornell, Claes、Bookstein, Fred L.(1982)。Two Structural Equation Models: LISREL and PLS Applied to Consumer Exit-voice Theory。Journal of Marketing Research,19(4),440-452。  new window
18.Hulland, John S.(1999)。Use of partial least squares (PLS) in strategic management research: A review of four recent studies。Strategic Management Journal,20(2),195-204。  new window
19.Chin, W. W.(1998)。Issues and opinion on structural equation modeling。MIS Quarterly,22(1),7-16。  new window
20.邱皓政(2011)。當PLS遇上SEM:議題與對話。αβγ量化研究學刊,3(1),20-53。  延伸查詢new window
21.王泓仁(20050300)。臺幣匯率對我國經濟金融活動之影響。中央銀行季刊,27(1),13-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.Fornell, Claes R.、Larcker, David F.(1981)。Evaluating Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error。Journal of Marketing Research,18(1),39-50。  new window
學位論文
1.洪瑞蓮(2004)。股價、匯率與利率之價格行為(碩士論文)。朝陽科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.趙蒼頡(2006)。匯率波動對台灣出口量的影響:以新加坡和泰國為例(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳愛華(1994)。貿易開放與經濟成長:東亞及拉丁美洲之實證比較分析(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.曾鴻鈞(2003)。台灣經濟成長、投資、出口交互動態關聯探討(碩士論文)。大葉大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.魏銘孝(2005)。利率與匯率波動、負債對廠商投資影響:美國道瓊上市公司實證研究(碩士論文)。中原大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.藍蔚迎、王詩瑋(2002)。台灣利率與匯率之關聯性實證研究(碩士論文)。國立台北大學。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.彭淮南(2013)。台幣貶無助出口還要承受高物價,http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN1/8304769.shtml#ixzz2l5ekngvk。  延伸查詢new window
2.劉憶如(2013)。太重出口,像小弟養家三大哥睡覺,http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN1/7885087.shtml#ixzz2SkxQ3xpc。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Wold, H.(1982)。Systems under indirect observation using PLS。A Second Generation of Multivariate Analysis。New York:Praeger。  new window
 
 
 
 
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