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題名:企業財務資訊、代理問題與信用風險模型之實證研究
書刊名:華人經濟研究
作者:余惠芳 引用關係張士軍黃于軒
作者(外文):Yu, Hui-funZhang, Shi-junHuang, Yi-shin
出版日期:2011
卷期:9:2
頁次:頁1-19
主題關鍵詞:財務資訊代理問題信用風險模型財務風險管理Financial informationAgency problemCredit risk modelsFinancial risk management
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(16) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:7
  • 共同引用共同引用:121
  • 點閱點閱:51
本文利用統計科學方法建立企業(特別是科技產業)Logistic信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models),考慮代理問題(Agency Problems),找出影響公司績效之顯著變數,儘可能在公司尚未發生財務風險(Financial Risk)以前,預測出可能發生之機率,達事前預警與風險管理之效。實證分析上,利用財務與代理問題變數,區分經營權與所有權是否同一人,探討比較其差異。實證結果發現,經營權與所有權未分開,可降低代理問題其預測準確率亦較高,提供投資人選股策略參考;董事長與總經理為同一人,影響公司績效有償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力與現金流量指標;經營權與所有權未分開,企業儘早提高現金流量比率,以降低信用風險與發生財務危機之機率。董事長與總經理為不同人,影響公司績效有財務結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力與現金流量指標;專業經理人(Chief Executive officer, CEO)宜降低現金再投資比率,增加業外收支率,多角化經營降低經營風險;專業經理人宜降低負債比率,提高總資產週轉率、每股現金流量與營業毛利率,增強獲利能力,提高公司績效。因此本文之實證價值與管理涵義為代理問題、財務資訊與公司績效。
This paper primarily used statistical methods to establish logistic credit risk models in electronic companies, discussed the agency problem on whether management and ownership belong to the same person. That made it be possible to predict in advance the probability of electronic companies experiencing financial risk. In the empirical analysis, the author built up a credit risk model using financial ratios and agency problems as the explanatory variables and the logistic regression model as the statistical method. Finding, In the case where management and ownership are combined, there had no agency problems and increased the degrees of predictive accuracy, empirical results suggested that the key performance indicators are the solvency, the operating performances, the profitability, and the cash flow, it had also been found that increasing cash flow ratios that reducing minimize agency problem and credit risk of the company. As for the case where management and ownership are separated, empirical results suggested that the key performance indicators are the financial structure, the solvency, the operating performances, the profitability, and the cash flow. It had also been found that chief executive officer (CEO) reducing the cash flow reinvestment ratios, and enhance ratio of non-operating revenue and expenses could reducing credit risk. It had also been found that reducing the debt ratio can enhance the total assets turnover, the cash flow per share, and the gross margin of the company. Therefore, this paper may be useful for researchers and practitioners who are focusing on agency problems, financial information, and corporate performance implementation.
期刊論文
1.李永全、馬黛(200607)。臺灣家族公司負債融資成本之研究。管理評論,25(3),69-91。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.林郁翎、黃建華(200903)。考慮公司治理之企業財務危機預警模型。東吳經濟商學學報,64,23-55。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.陳香蘭、楊盈芊(200812)。股權結構與負債之關聯性。臺灣企業績效學刊,2(1),55-71。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Deakin, E. B.(1972)。A Discriminate Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure。Journal of Accounting Research,10,167-179。  new window
5.Ohlson, J. A.(1980)。Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy。Journal of Accounting Research,18(1),109-131。  new window
6.Altman, E. I.、Haldeman, G. G.、Narayanan, P.(1977)。Zeta Analysis: A New Model to Identify the Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations。Journal of Banking and Finance,1,29-54。  new window
7.Lieu, P. T.、Lin, C. W.、Yu, H. F.(2008)。Financial Early-Warning Models on Cross-Holding Groups。Industrial Management and Data Systems,108(8),1060-1080。  new window
8.Agrawal, A.、Mandelker, G.(1987)。Managerial incentive and corporate investment decision。Journal of Finance,42,823-827。  new window
9.Beaver, W.H.(1966)。Financial ratios as predictors of failure。Journal of Accounting Research,3,71-111。  new window
10.Yu, H. F.、Liang, J. H.(2011)。Management Ownership and Corporate Performance。African Journal of Business Management,5(4),1441-1453。  new window
11.余惠芳(20101200)。外部監控、公司治理與公司績效之實證研究。文大商管學報,15(2),107-135。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Whitaker, Richard B.(1999)。The Early Stages of Financial Distress。Journal of Economics and Finance,23(2),123-133。  new window
13.陳業寧、王衍智、許鴻英(20040700)。臺灣企業財務危機之預測:信用評分法與選擇權評價法孰優?。風險管理學報,6(2),155-179。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Jensen, Michael C.、Meckling, William H.(1976)。Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure。Journal of Financial Economics,3(4),305-360。  new window
15.Zmijewski, Mark E.(1984)。Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models。Journal of Accounting Research,22(Supplement),59-82。  new window
16.Fama, E. F.、Fama, E.(1980)。Agency Problems and the Theory of the Firm。Journal of Political Economy,88(2),288-307。  new window
17.Altman, Edward I.、Saunders, Anthony(1996)。Credit Risk Measurement Development over the Last 20 Years。Journal of Banking & Finance,21,1721-1742。  new window
18.賴鈺城、李崑進、李善玉(2010)。公司治理下電子業之財務預警模型。華人前瞻研究,6(1),1-23。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.Buraj, P.、Lee, S. M.(2009)。IT Capabilities, Inter-firm Performance, and the State of Economic Development。Industrial Management and Data Systems,9,1231-1247。  new window
20.Pastena, V.、Ruland, W.(1986)。The Merger/Bankruptcy Alternative。The Accounting Review,61(2),288-301。  new window
21.Grossman, S. J.、Hart, O. D.(1980)。Takeover Bids, the Free-rider Problem, and the Theory of the Corporation。Bell Journal of Economics,11(1),42-64。  new window
學位論文
1.徐明億(2009)。從代理問題觀點看家族企業的投資決策效率:以台灣上市公司為例(碩士論文)。朝陽科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳肇榮(1983)。運用財務比率預測企業財務危機之實證研究(博士論文)。國立政治大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Penrose, T.(1959)。The theory of the growth of the firm。Oxford:Basil Blackwell。  new window
2.Dun and Bradstreet(1988)。Business Failure Records。New York. NY:Business Economics Division。  new window
3.Baumol, William J.(1959)。Business Behavior, Value and Growth。New York, NY:Macmillan Press。  new window
4.Williamson, Oliver E.(1964)。The Economics of Discretionary Behavior: Managerial Objectives in a Theory of the Firm。Prentice-Hall。  new window
5.Galbraith, John Kenneth(1967)。The New Industrial State。Houghton Mifflin Press。  new window
6.Berle, Adolf Augustus Jr.、Means, Gardiner C.(1932)。The Modern Corporation and Private Property。Macmillan Publishing Company。  new window
7.Marris, R.(1964)。The Economic Theory of Managerial Capitalism。New York:Free Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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