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題名:貝氏多層次模型在臺灣不動產市場估價之應用--以臺北市住宅建物為例
書刊名:住宅學報
作者:林祖嘉 引用關係馬毓駿
作者(外文):Lin, Chu-chiaMa, Yu-chun
出版日期:2012
卷期:21:1
頁次:頁1-18
主題關鍵詞:特徵方程式貝氏分析馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法Hedonic equationBayesian inferenceMarkov chain Monte Carlo
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:67
  • 點閱點閱:100
在房地產價格估計的領域當中,特徵方程式是最常被應用來估計建物價格的工具之一,然因特徵估價法是建構在線性迴歸的基礎之上,對於建物特徵與建物價格關係的描述過於簡化,同時實務上存在諸多無法量化的因素,致使模型容易產生異質變異的現象,而現有的非參數模型有時過於複雜,且使用上的限制亦多。針對上述問題,本文嘗試採用多層次貝式模型來彌補線性模型的缺陷,有別於多數研究將區位視為建物特徵之一的假設,本文由區位不同造成異質變異的角度切入,重新呈現建物特徵與建物價格的非單調性關係。實證結果指出多數的建物特徵對建物價格的影響,多因區位而產生變化,且時呈不同方向,同時在異質變異現象獲得舒緩後,建物價格估價的精確度亦獲得顯著提升。
How to estimate housing prices precisely has always been an important issue in the real estate market. Most studies adopt parametric or non-parametric methods to deal with problems such as heteroskedasticity or non-monotonic phenomena which come from less influential attributes or from characteristics which can not easily be realized. Researchers have attempted to adopt certain methods such as non-parametric methods to recover from these failures but they still do not work well. This paper therefore tries to re-examine the issue of heteroskedasticity in the housing price model. By using data for collective housing-type buildings in Taipei, this study employs the Hierarchical Bayesian model to bridge the relationship between attributes and housing prices. By means of a random effect device, the location effect gives rise to a non-monotonic effect on regressors that affect housing prices. Besides, capturing the heteroskedasticity effects results in the Bayesian model providing a better estimation than OLS.
期刊論文
1.林祖嘉、馬毓駿(20071200)。特徵方程式大量估價法在臺灣不動產市場之應用。住宅學報,16(2),1-22。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.賴碧瑩(20071200)。應用類神經網路於電腦輔助大量估價之研究。住宅學報,16(2),43-65。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.洪得洋、林祖嘉(19990800)。臺北市捷運系統與道路寬度對房屋價格影響之研究。住宅學報,8,47-67。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Brown, K. H.、Uyar, B.(2004)。A hierarchical linear model approach for assessing the effects of house and neighborhood characteristics on housing price。Journal of Real Estate Practice and Education,7(1),15-26。  new window
5.Pavlov, A. D.(2000)。Space-varying Regression Coefficients: A Semi-parametric Approach Applied to Real Estate Markets。Real Estate Economics,28(2),249-283。  new window
6.Smith, A. F. M.、Roberts, G. O.(1993)。Bayesian Computation via the Gibbs Sampler and Related Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological),55(1),3-23。  new window
7.張怡文、江穎慧、張金鶚(20090900)。分量迴歸在大量估價模型之應用--非典型住宅估價之改進。都市與計劃,36(3),281-304。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Davidian, M.、Carroll, R. J.(1987)。Variance Function Estimation。Journal of American Statistical Association,82(400),1079-1091。  new window
9.林祖嘉、林素菁(20090600)。住宅次市場定義合理性之探討:因素分析法之應用。都市與計劃,36(2),133-153。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Chib, S.、Greenberg, E.(1995)。Understanding the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm。The American Statistician,49(4),327-335。  new window
11.Stevenson, S.(2004)。New Empirical Evidence on Heteroscedasticity in Hedonic Housing Models。Journal of Housing Economics,13(2),136-153。  new window
12.Hofmann, David A.(1997)。An Overview of the Logic and Rationale of Hierarchical Linear Models。Journal of Management,23(6),723-744。  new window
13.Goodman, Allen C.、Thibodeau, Thomas G.(1995)。Age-Related Heteroskedasticity in Hedonic House Price Equations。Journal of Housing Research,6,25-42。  new window
14.Rosen, Sherwin(1974)。Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition。Journal of Political Economy,82(1),34-55。  new window
15.Lin, C. C.、Huang, C. Y.(2007)。特徵價格法之參數與半參數電腦輔助大量估價(CAMA)模型之研究-台北地區法拍屋住宅市場之實證分析。住宅學報,16(2),85-105。  延伸查詢new window
16.Gencay, R.、Yang, X.(1996)。A Prediction Comparison of Residential Housing Prices by Parametric versus Semiparametric Conditional Mean Estimators。Economics Letters,52,129-135。  new window
17.Robinson, P. M.(1986)。Non-parametric Methods in Specification。The Economic Journal,96,134-141。  new window
18.Anglin, P.、Gencay, R.(1996)。Semi-parametric Estimation of Hedonic Price Functions。Journal of Applied Econometrics,11,633-648。  new window
19.Bin, O.(2004)。A Prediction Comparison of Housing Sales Prices by Parametric versus Semi-parametric Regressions。Journal of Housing Economics,13,68-84。  new window
20.Chib, S.(1995)。Marginal Likelihood from the Gibbs Output。Journal of the American Statistical Association,90,1313-1321。  new window
21.Clapp, J. M.(2003)。A Semiparametric Method of Valuing Residential Locations: Application to Automated Valuation。Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,27(3),303-320。  new window
22.Clapp, J. M.(2004)。A Semiparametric Method for Estimating Local House Price Indices。Real Estate Economics,32(1),127-160。  new window
23.McCluskey, W. J.、Borst, R. A.(1997)。An Evaluation of MRA, Comparable Sales Analysis and ANNs for the Mass Appraisal of Residential Properties in Northern Ireland。Assessment Journal,4(1),47-55。  new window
24.Fletcher, M.、Gallimore, P.、Mangan, J.(2000)。Heteroscedasticity in Hedonic House Price Models。Journal of Property Research,17(2),93-108。  new window
25.Ullah, A.(1988)。Non-parametric Estimation of Econometric Functionals。Canadian Journal of Economics,21,625-658。  new window
圖書
1.Gelman, Andrew、Carlin, John B.、Stern, Hal S.、Rubin, Donald B.(2004)。Bayesian Data Analysis。Chapman & Hall。  new window
2.Wong, K. C.、So, A. T. P.、Hung, Y. C.(2002)。Neural Network vs. Hedonic Price Model: Appraisal of High-density Condominiums。Real Estate Valuation Theory。Boston。  new window
3.Zellner, A.(1971)。Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics。New York。  new window
 
 
 
 
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