資料載入處理中...
臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統
:::
網站導覽
國圖首頁
聯絡我們
操作說明
English
行動版
(3.141.7.7)
登入
字型:
**字體大小變更功能,需開啟瀏覽器的JAVASCRIPT,如您的瀏覽器不支援,
IE6請利用鍵盤按住ALT鍵 + V → X → (G)最大(L)較大(M)中(S)較小(A)小,來選擇適合您的文字大小,
如為IE7以上、Firefoxy或Chrome瀏覽器則可利用鍵盤 Ctrl + (+)放大 (-)縮小來改變字型大小。
來源文獻查詢
引文查詢
瀏覽查詢
作者權威檔
引用/點閱統計
我的研究室
資料庫說明
相關網站
來源文獻查詢
/
簡易查詢
/
查詢結果列表
/
詳目列表
:::
詳目顯示
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆
/1
頁
來源文獻資料
摘要
外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
運動彩券投注者之認知分析:以美國職棒大聯盟賽事為例
書刊名:
體育學報
作者:
張寧
/
劉昱伸
作者(外文):
Chang, Ning
/
Liu, Yu-shen
出版日期:
2017
卷期:
50:4
頁次:
頁439-450
主題關鍵詞:
運動彩券
;
因果關係
;
好手氣的謬誤
;
賭徒的謬誤
;
社會判斷理論
;
Sports lottery
;
Causality
;
Gambler's fallacy
;
Hot hand fallacy
;
Social judgment theory
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
1
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
1
共同引用:
25
點閱:2
緒論:運動彩券玩法簡單、多元又具備公益性質,在台灣相當受歡迎。同時也是運動產業發展的重要經費來源之一。投注者經常認為投注結果的輸贏並非運氣而是受到技術與知識的影響。然而運動彩券究竟屬於技巧性的賭博或機率性的賭博,可能與投注者的想像不同。本研究因此藉由了解投注者決策時所依賴的因素與謬誤,對此想法進行探討。方法:本研究在兩個月的期間內,記錄15位運動彩券專家預測美國職棒大聯盟比賽勝負的理由及正確率。並從預測勝負的理由中找出先發投手防禦率、近十場平均得分、後援投手防禦率、連勝場次等四項因素,做為設計社會判斷理論問卷的依據,以探討投注者預測勝負的判斷對策。結果:社會判斷理論問卷的研究成果顯示,受測者整體對連勝場次最為重視,且絕大多數為越高越好的正相關。其次為先發投手防禦率,亦以正相關為多數。其他兩個因素則不受重視。因此受測者深受好手氣的謬誤而非賭徒的謬誤所影響,且不因年齡、性別,以及投注經驗而有差異。又由觀察記錄中得知,15位運動彩券專家在調查期間預測的平均正確率為54.9%,因此尚無法認定運動彩券投注的輸贏是受技術與知識影響,而非隨機的結果。結論:運動彩券業者能夠獲利,除了莊家優勢外,還有投注者可以預測勝負的自信。認為自己可以預測比賽勝負的因果歷程提高了投注的動機,對設局者而言就是獲利的來源。
以文找文
Introduction: Sports lottery is popular in Taiwan because it is simple, pluralistic and beneficial for the public welfare. Furthermore, sports lottery is an important financial resource for sports industry development. The gamblers of sports lottery usually think the outcome of betting is largely determined by gamblers' techniques and knowledge but not probability. However, sports lottery is the game of skill or the game of chance may be different from the image of gamblers. The study probes this notion by realizing the factors and fallacies that gamblers depend on and are involved. Methods: This study observes and records 15 sports lottery experts' reasoning for outcome prediction (winning or loss) and their accuracy rate about MLB matches in two months. According to their reasoning, the study found four key factors used by experts on betting. This study uses these four factors as the base for formulating a SJT (social judgment theory) questionnaire to investigate punters' judgment policy. Results: The results suggest that the length of the winning streaks is the most emphasized factor by the subjects, and the subjects believe that is the longer the better (a positive correlation). The second is the ERA of the starters, which also displays a positive correlation. The remaining two are less valued. As a result, subjects are affected by hot hand rather than the gambler's fallacy. Furthermore, the age, gender and experience of bet do not have a significant impact on subjects' judgment policy. It can be found from the record that the average accuracy rate of the 15 sports lottery experts is 54.9% only in investigation period. In other words, for sports lottery, winning or not may be only a matter of chance rather than techniques and knowledge. Conclusion: The reasons that the sports lottery companies have made profits for a long while, in addition to house advantage, is the gambler's confidence for predicting the match outcomes accurately. To predict the causality process of a coming game arouses the incentive to participate a bet. That ensures the house get profits.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Slovic, Paul、Fischhoff, Baruch、Lichtenstein, Sarah(1981)。Informing the Public about the Risks from Ionizing Radiation。Health Physic,41(4),589-598。
2.
張寧、汪明生、郭瑞坤(20070400)。社會判斷理論對互動管理成果之評估。管理學報,24(2),135-154。
延伸查詢
3.
Clotfelter, C. T.、Cook, P. J.(1993)。The 'gambler's fallacy' in lottery play。Management Science,39,1521-1525。
4.
Lagnado, D. A.、Newell, B. R.、Kahan, S.、Shanks, D. R.(2006)。Insight and Strategy in Multiple-Cue Learning。Journal of Experimental Psychology: General,135(2),162-183。
5.
Ayton, P.、Fischer, I.(2004)。The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?。Memory & Cognition,32(8),1369-1378。
6.
郭正德(2010)。運動彩券發行對運動休閒產業影響之探討。休閒運動保健學報,3,53-61。
延伸查詢
7.
張寧(2015)。羈押與具保之認知分析。犯罪與刑事司法研究,24,1-31。
延伸查詢
8.
施婉婷、王俊人(2014)。運動彩券購買決策因素:方法目的鏈之應用。大專體育學刊,16(2),136-150。
延伸查詢
9.
Bateman, I.、Dent, S.、Peters, E.、Slovic, P.、Starmer, C.(2007)。The affect heuristic and the attractiveness of simple gambles。Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,20(4),365-380。
10.
Anderson, N. H.、Whalen, R. E.(1960)。Likelihood judgments and sequential effects in a two-choice probability learning situation。Journal of Experimental Psychology,60,111-120。
11.
Croson, R.、Sundali, J.(2005)。The gambler's fallacy and the hot hand: Empirical data from casinos。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,30,195-209。
12.
Considine, J.、Crowley, F.、Foley, S.、O'Connor, M.(2008)。Irish national lottery sports capital grant allocations, 1999-2007: natural experiments on political influence。Economic Affairs,28(3),38-44。
13.
Cantinotti, M.、Ladouceur, R.、Jacques, C.(2004)。Sports betting: Can gamblers beat randomness?。Psychology of Addictive Behaviors,18(2),143-147。
14.
Forrest, D.、Perez, L.(2015)。Just like the lottery? Player behaviour and anomalies in the market for football pools。Journal of Gambling Studies,31(2),471-482。
15.
Dodig, D.、Ricijas, N.、Rajic-Stojanovic, A.(2014)。Sports betting among students in Zagreb - the contribution of irrational beliefs, motivation and experience in games of chance。Ljetopis Socijalnog Rada,21(2),215-242。
16.
DiCicco-Bloom, B.、Romer, D.(2012)。Poker, sports betting, and less popular alternatives: Status, friendship networks, and male adolescent gambling。Youth & Society,44(1),141-170。
17.
Dawes, Robyn M.、Faust, David、Meehl, Paul E.(1989)。Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment。Science,243(4899),1668-1674。
18.
Hall, C. C.、Oppenheimer, D. M.(2015)。Error parsing: An alternative method of implementing social judgment theory。Judgment and Decision Making,10(5),469-478。
19.
Lin, H. W.、Lu, H. F.(2015)。Elucidating the association of sports lottery bettors' socio-demographics, personality traits, risk tolerance and behavioural biases。Personality and Individual Differences,73,118-126。
20.
Ho, H.、Lee, S.、Lin, H.(2006)。Gambler's fallacy in the taiwan lotto market。Taiwan Economic Review,34(4),417-444。
21.
Ranyard, R.、Charlton, J. P.(2006)。Cognitive processes underlying lottery and sports gambling decisions: The role of stated probabilities and background knowledge。European Journal of Cognitive Psychology,18(2),234-254。
22.
Metzger, M. A.(1985)。Biases in betting: An application of laboratory findings。Psychological Reports,56,883-888。
23.
Towfigh, E.、Glockner, A.(2011)。Game over: Empirical support for soccer bets regulation。Psychology Public Policy and Law,17(3),475-506。
24.
Tversky, Amos、Kahneman, Daniel(1973)。Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability。Cognitive Psychology,5(2),207-232。
25.
Brunswik, Egon(1955)。Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology。Psychological Review,62(3),193-217。
26.
Rohrbaugh, J.(1981)。Improving the Quality of Group Judgment: Social Judgment Analysis and the Nominal Group Technique。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,28(2),272-288。
27.
Gilovich, Thomas D.、Vallone, Robert P.、Tversky, Amos(1985)。The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences。Cognitive Psychology,17(3),295-314。
28.
Tversky, Amos、Kahneman, Daniel(1974)。Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty。Science,185(4157),1124-1131。
會議論文
1.
Kelley, H. H.(1967)。Attribution theory in social psychology。Nebraska Symposium on Motivation。Lincoln, NE:University of Nebraska Press。192-238。
圖書
1.
POLICY PC(1991)。Judgment Analysis Software--Reference Manual。Executive Decision Services。
2.
鄭毓煌、蘇丹(2015)。理性的非理性:誰都逃不過的10大心理陷阱。臺北:智勝文化。
延伸查詢
3.
Hastie, R.、Dawes, R. M.(2001)。Rational choice in an uncertain world: The psychology of judgment and decision making。Thousand Oaks, CA:Sage Publications。
4.
Kahneman, D.(2013)。Thinking, fast and slow。New York:FSG。
5.
Nagel, E.(1961)。The structure of science: problems in the logic of explanation。New York:Harcourt, Brace & World, Inc.。
6.
Cooksey, Ray W.(1996)。Judgment Analysis: Theory, Methods, and Applications。Academic Press。
7.
Hammond, Kenneth R.、McClelland, Gary H.、Mumpower, Jeryl(1980)。Human Judgment and Decision Making: Theories, Methods, and Procedures。Praeger Publishers。
8.
Zeleny, Milan(1982)。Multiple Criteria Decision Making。McGraw-Hill Book Company。
其他
1.
ESPN(2015)。MLB player pitching stats--2011,http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/year/2011。
2.
(2015)。Statistics. Sortable player,http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?#sectionType=st&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2011&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1437719896640&playerType=QU。
圖書論文
1.
Brehmer, B.、Joyce, C. R. B.(1988)。[Human judgment: The SJT view] Introduction。Human judgment: The SJT view。New York:North-Holland。
2.
Schank, R. C.、Abelson, R. P.(1995)。Knowledge and memory: The real story。Knowledge and Memory: The Real Story。Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates。
3.
Hammond, Kenneth R.、Stewart, Thomas R.、Brehmer, Berndt、Steinmann, Derick O.(1975)。Social Judgment Theory。Human Judgment and Decision Processes。Academic Press。
4.
Stewart, T. R.(1988)。Judgment Analysis: Procedures。Human Judgment: The SJT View。North-Holland。
推文
當script無法執行時可按︰
推文
推薦
當script無法執行時可按︰
推薦
引用網址
當script無法執行時可按︰
引用網址
引用嵌入語法
當script無法執行時可按︰
引用嵌入語法
轉寄
當script無法執行時可按︰
轉寄
top
:::
相關期刊
相關論文
相關專書
相關著作
熱門點閱
1.
協助一所技高發展專題導向特色課程:教學模式建構、試教與其學生學習成效評估
2.
需求層級理論之認知分析:以金錢與休閒為例
3.
探討米其林航空餐產品屬性、消費者知覺價值與行為意圖關係之研究
4.
以攻守表現與競賽制度預測中華職棒比賽勝負
5.
臺灣民眾運動消費水準時空演變特徵及影響因素分析
6.
長期照顧人力資源治理研究:以高雄市為例
7.
城市管理複雜系統的治理結構
8.
人民參與刑事審判中素人與專業的認知調查之研究:臺灣嘉義地院六場模擬法庭實證研究的若干發現
9.
提升高雄捷運營運量之研究:多元利害關係人之觀點
10.
羈押與具保之認知分析
11.
嫌惡性設施的風險知覺
12.
臺灣農科園區營運管理與兩岸合作預應策略--互動管理分析
13.
運動彩券購買決策因素:方法目的鏈之應用
14.
非營利組織職工對組織目標與績效衡量之認知研究--以救國團為例
15.
推廣健保網路承保申報作業之策略:互動管理之應用
1.
長期照顧人力需求之跨域治理解析—以高雄市照顧服務員為例
2.
警察人員執法裁量之跨域治理解析─以高雄市酒駕為例
3.
社會交換與經濟交換的準理性﹕高雄作為兩岸合作試點城市的跨域治理研究
4.
兩岸產學研合作治理之準理性博弈測試
5.
PAM中個體與群體之事實、價值與人際-以南臺灣民眾對「ECFA」之認知、態度與行為為例
6.
台灣農業生物科技園區兩岸合作策略之跨域分析
7.
制度與利害關係人對企業環境友善行為之影響–以我國綠能法案為例
1.
互動管理與公民治理
無相關著作
無相關點閱
QR Code