【目的/意義】面對輿情這一大數據平臺,把握網絡民意演化規律,為政府突發事件應急決策提供重要依據。【方法/過程】針對突發事件民意演化的研究,采用系統動力學建模方法,分別從內部因素(網民因素)、外部因素兩大影響網絡民意演化的主要方面進行分析,以突發事件民意熱度為指標,探討突發事件民意演化影響因素及其邏輯關系,并檢驗其中的關鍵性因素,同時考慮網民和政府間的博弈與關聯性。【結果/結論】通過模擬仿真,得出若干條關于突發事件民意演化機理的規律。

【Purpose/significance】In the face of the big data platform of public opinion, grasping the evolution of public opinion on the Internet provides government a important meaning for emergency decision-making.【Method/process】The research on the evolution of public opinions of emergencies, using the system dynamics model, analyzes the two main aspects that influence the evolution of Internet opinion, one is the internal factors(Internet users), the other is the external factors respectively,taking the popularity of public opinion as an indicator, explores the influential factors and their logical relations of public opinion evolution in emergent events and examines the key factors and at the same time considers the game and correlation between Internet users and the government.【Result/conclusion】Through simulation, we can draw a number of regulations about the evolution mechanism of public opinions for emergencies.