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題名:財政收支與所得分配對臺灣經濟成長影響的探討
作者:羅時萬 引用關係
作者(外文):S. W. Lou
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
指導教授:楊建成
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2000
主題關鍵詞:內生成長理論財政收支所得分配經濟成長endogenous economic growthfiscal policyincome distributioneconomic growth
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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晚近興起的內生成長理論,從廣泛的觀點來認定成長的動力。而本文即採此種理論基礎,分別從政府的財政收支與社會的所得分配等兩個課題,來討探其與經濟成長的關係,並以臺灣為例進行實證分析。本論文兩個獨立課題的文章篇名依序為:
一. 政府收支與經濟成長: 臺灣的實證分析。
二. 所得分配與經濟成長: 臺灣的實證分析。
有關第一篇文章,主要是從政府的公共收入(以直接稅和間接稅為代表)、公共支出(包括生產性支出和消費性支出)、及預算盈餘等財政變數,分析其對經濟成長率的影響;在實證的方法上,其步驟有四個:
1.財政收支與國內生產毛額(GDP)的共積關係分析。
2.財政收支對經濟成長率的影響分析。
3.財政收支與經濟成長率的因果分析。
4.財政收支影響經濟成長率的路徑分析。
實證結果顯示,臺灣的財政收支變數確實與GDP存在著一定的長期共積關係;其次,迴歸分析的結果顯示財政變數對經濟成長率每年約有1%的正面影響;再者,因果檢定的結果也顯示財政變數是「因」,而經濟成長是「果」;最後,影響路徑的分析結果顯示,財政變數影響要素的累積與要素的報酬,甚至也影響到勞動生產力。因此,總結此等結果可證實,財政政策的內生化成長理論在臺灣是有效的成立。
有關第二篇文章,主要是從社會的所得分配(以Gini係數與所得五等分位所計算的九種所得份額比率指標等),分析其對經濟成長率影響的相關課題;在實證的方法上,其步驟有四個:
1.所得分配對經濟成長率的影響分析。
2.所得分配與經濟成長率的因果分析。
3.所得分配影響經濟成長率的路徑分析。
4.所得分配影響經濟成長率的敏感度分析。
實證結果顯示,多種不同定義之分配指標與多種迴歸設定方式等的估計結果,均支持所得分配的不公平確實有害於經濟的成長,而臺灣所得分配的不公平,每年約使經濟成長率減少1.5%;再者,因果檢定的結果也顯示,臺灣的所得分配是「因」,而經濟成長率是「果」;換言之,所得分配之內生成長理論的主張,在臺灣是有效成立的;此外,從資本市場不完全競爭之路徑分析的實證結果,也證實了這種分配不公平所造成的不利影響確實存在著;但另一方面,所得分配不公平透過財政、經濟與社會的路徑,它反而產生了使投資增加的Kaldor 效果;惟本文實證結果中亦顯示,投資對經濟成長率並無顯著的影響作用;因此,不公平雖然對投資產了Kaldor效果,但它對經濟成長率並無明顯的影響;最後,這樣的結論透過不同性質的分配指標及其不同落後期數的敏感度分析,其結果也同樣顯示出不公平有害經濟的成長,而這種效果隨著落後期數的加長而呈遞減的現象;換言之,所得分配對經濟成長率的影響會隨著時間的久遠而遞減。
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