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題名:選舉與財政政策制定----台灣政治預算循環之實證分析
作者:傅彥凱
作者(外文):Fu, Yan-Kai
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:公共行政暨政策學系
指導教授:林鍾沂
羅清俊
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2003
主題關鍵詞:政治景氣循環政治預算循環選舉預算財政政策制定混合迴歸Political Business CyclePolitical Budget CycleElectionsBudgetingFiscal Policy MakingPooling Regression
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政治景氣循環理論強調執政者會在選前透過各種經濟政策工具的操弄,如貨幣供給、政府支出等,以影響總體經濟情況的表現,如減少失業率、降低通貨膨脹率、提高經濟成長率等,使國家的經濟狀況在選前呈現成長與富裕的景象,以增加執政者當選的機會。亦即執政黨會在選前採取寬鬆性政策,選後則採取緊縮性政策,整體經濟情勢就在這一鬆一縮的波動情形下,形成所謂的政治景氣循環現象。然而過去文獻多偏重於中央層級選舉的討論,少有論及地方層級者,唯本研究認為地方首長於選舉前討好選民的動機與中央之執政者並無二致,兩者同樣以獲取選票為目標。中央政府的執政者,為了鞏固政權,一切會以勝選為優先目標;地方政府的執政者自然也不例外,為求繼續掌控地方資源,施政時也不忘有選票的考量。因為中央層級的總統及立法委員選舉關係著整個政權的維繫及統治的正當性,即便是地方層級的縣市長選舉也攸關政黨執政版圖的大小,重要性不容輕忽。於是本研究除了探討中央是否存在政治景氣循環現象之外,也將分析觸角延伸至地方層級,同時並將研究重點鎖定在政治預算循環部分。準此,在中央政府方面,研究期間訂為民國六十年至九十年止(1971-2001),利用中央政府總預算資料同時並採用考慮時間遲滯效果的一階自我迴歸模式,觀察中央政府在制定相關的財政政策時是否有選舉因素的考量,而偏好採用某些特定的財政政策工具,以吸引民眾關注,獲取選民支持。另外,在地方政府方面,則將研究期間訂為民國七十七年政府解嚴之後至民國九十年止(1988-2001),利用台灣省各縣市政府總預算資料,進行混合迴歸分析 ,俾便於觀察縣市首長是否於選舉年有操弄財政政策工具,獲取選票之行為。是故,本研究欲藉用政治景氣循環理論來觀察台灣中央及地方執政者於各自選舉年操縱政府預算的意圖,並配合實證研究途徑,期望經由實證結果所獲得的發現對於窺探台灣中央與地方選舉年實際政治操作的全貌會有一定程度的幫助。
基於上述的實證研究,就學術貢獻而言,作者認為本論文應有幾個顯著不同於過去研究的內容:
第一、基於中央與地方的執政者皆有相同的政治動機,目標皆在贏得選舉,尋求繼續執政,因而可將研究對象由中央延伸至地方,一併考量兩者是否存在政治預算循環的現象。因此,本論文乃選定中央與地方兩者共有的財政政策工具作為實證觀察的重點,進一步拓展政治預算循環理論的適用性。
第二、政治預算循環的實證研究之所以未能產生統計明確的顯著結果,其中有很大原因是使用聚合性的資料,而使得實證結果可能與真實世界產生落差。所以在依變數的設定方面,實有必要將聚合資料予以細分,並配合適當的統計分析方法,相信對於直接觀察不同類型的政策工具所能產生的選舉效果實有莫大助益。
第三、鑑於過去的研究僅偏重在經濟變數的討論,而忽略其他的政治因素,例如選戰競爭程度、府會結構、及政策操控能力(自有財源比率)等變數其實也會造成政府財政預算收支的變動。因此,本論文在自變數的設定方面,除了將經濟變數視為控制變數加以處理之外,同時將重點置於其他政治變數的討論,而不侷限於選舉年變數,唯有如此才能精確觀測出台灣特殊的政治操作現象。
Political business cycle theory stresses that before the election incumbents will manipulate macroeconomic policy tools like money supply and government spending to influence macroeconomic performance, such as less unemployment rate, less inflation rate, more economic growth rate, which makes the country economic performance present the scene of growth and prosperity to increase incumbents’ opportunity for re-election. In other words, the party of the incumbents will adopt expansionary policy before the election and deflation policy after the election, so the whole economic situation forms political business cycle phenomenon because of the vibration caused by the expansionary and deflation policies. However, many of the past references focus on the discussion of the central government, but few are related to the local government. Thus, from this research we will learn that before the election the motivation to please voters of the local government is the same as that of the central government, so they have the same goal-- to gain the ballot. In order to consolidate the political power, the incumbents of the central government will ensure their election success; there is no exception of the local government, so to continue controlling local resources, the local government will take the ballot into consideration when carrying out policies. Because the central elections of the president and the legislator are related to holding the whole political power together and the legitimacy of the dominion, even County Magistrates and City Mayor Election are also related to the area of the party’s dominion, so the importance of that can’t be neglected. Therefore, this research tries to confer if not only the central government but also the local government has political business cycle phenomenon or not, and at the same time the research will also focus on the political budget cycle. Thus, during the research year of 1971- 2001 the central government uses the total budget resources, adopts the autoregressive model of first order with time lag at the same time, and observes when establishing some associated fiscal policies whether because of the election, the central government adopts some certain fiscal policy tools to attract people’s attention and gain the support of the voters. Besides, during the research year of 1988-2001 the local government uses the total budget resources from every county and city in Taiwan province doing pooling regression analysis to observe whether during the year of County Magistrates and City Mayors election people manipulate fiscal policy tools to gain the ballot. Thus, this research tries to use political business cycle theory to observe the intention of the central and local incumbents in Taiwan to manipulate the budget of the government. Besides, by using empirical research approach the researcher hopes to gain some results which would help a lot to explore the whole true manipulation of politics during the year of the central and local elections.
Based on this research described above, it has many different contributions from the past researches.
First, both the central and local government have the same political motivation to win the election and to continue to be in power, so the research should objects include both central and local government and the researcher take both of them into consideration to see if they exist in the political budget cycle phenomenon. Besides, this research adopts central and local government’s fiscal policy tools as the key points of the true observation and to adapt political budget cycle theory.
Second, mostly because of using pooling data, political budget cycle research can’t produce obvious significances, so there might be some difference between the research results and the situation in the real world. Thus, when setting up the dependent variable, it is necessary to analyze pooling data in detail with suitable analytical approaches. It helps a lot for observing different kinds of policy tools directly and producing election effects.
Third, many past researches focused on the discussion of the economic variable and neglected other political factors, such as electoral competition, the structure of the in power and supervising organizations, policy manipulation capacity, and so on, which makes the fiscal budgeting vary. Thus, when the researcher sets the independent variable, he not only takes the economic variable as control variable but also focuses on the discussion of other political variables instead of just taking the election year as the only variable. Only by doing so can the special political manipulation phenomenon of Taiwan be observed accurately.
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2001 〈財政收支劃分法對鄉(鎮市)層級地方政府財政之影響〉,《經社法治論叢》,27期,頁134-157。
趙永茂
1998a 《台灣地方政治的變遷與特質》(二版),台北市,翰蘆圖書。
1998b 《中央與地方全線劃分的理論與實際》(二版),台北市,翰蘆圖書。
趙永茂、孫同文、江大樹編
2001 《府際關係》,台北:元照出版公司。
趙揚清
2002 〈地方政府財政赤字問題〉,《國家政策論壇》,2卷3期。
鄭武國譯 Anthony Giddens著
2000 《第三條路:社會民主的更新》,台北:聯經出版事業公司。
蔡吉源
1999 〈財政赤字與財政改革(1989-1999)〉,《理論與政策》,13卷4期,頁55-70。
2000a 〈地方財政問題應如何解決?桃園經驗談〉,《政策月刊》,65期,頁33-38。
2000b 〈桃園地方財政(1998-2000),《財稅研究》,32卷5期,頁1-20。
2001 《桃園去來》,台北:易風格數位快印公司。
蔡吉源、林健次
2001 〈由十年歲入預決算看桃園財政─兼論台灣地方財政問題〉,《財稅研究》,33卷1期,頁1-26。
蔡建樹譯 R. Carter Hill, William E. Griffiths & George G. Judge著
1997 《初級計量經濟學》,台北:台灣西書出版社。
鄧陽禧
1998 〈探索政府財政改善之現實與幻象〉,《會計研究月刊》,157期,頁113-121。
賴景昌
2001 《總體經濟學》,台北:雙葉書廊。
謝登隆、徐繼達
2001 《總體經濟理論與政策》,台北:智勝文化。
謝素芳
2000 《台灣民主化對財經政策的影響》,東華大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。
羅清俊
1998 〈分配政策研究的發展與應用〉,《人文及社會科學集刊》,10卷4期,頁575-609。
2000a 〈猜猜看誰把醃肉帶回家了:補助款利益在縣市分配的分析〉,《人文及社會科學集刊》,12卷1期,頁1-45。
2000b 〈政策利益分配的型態:最小獲勝聯盟?還是通通有獎?〉,《政治科學論叢》,13期,頁201-232。
2001 《台灣分配政治》,台北市:前衛出版社。
羅清俊、陳志瑋
1999 《公共政策新論》,台北市:韋伯文化事業出版社。
羅清俊、萬榮水
1999 〈選舉與補助款的分配:綁樁?還是平衡地方財政?〉,《選舉研究》,6卷2期,頁:121-161。
羅慎平譯 Patrick Dunleavy & Brendan O’Leary著
1994 《國家論----自由民主政治學》,台北市:五南書局。
蘇彩足
1994 〈政府預算決策模式之探討:從中央政府總預算之編製談起〉,《中央學術論叢》,12期,頁:229-244。
1996 《政府預算之研究》,台北市:華泰書局。
1997 《政府預算審議制度之研究:理論與實務之探討》,台北市:華泰書局。
1999 〈民主化對於預算決策的衝擊與因應之道〉,《理論與政策》,13卷3期,頁:47-63。
2002 〈財政失衡與經濟失衡〉,發表於《當前重大公共政策議題》論壇,台灣大學政治學系主辦,十二月七日。
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