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題名：性侵犯機構處遇評估指標及再犯預測效度之研究
作者：鍾志宏
校院名稱：中央警察大學
系所名稱：犯罪防治研究所
指導教授：陳玉書、林健陽
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2015
主題關鍵詞：性侵犯；機構處遇；評估指標；再犯；預測效度；Sexual Offender；Institution Treatment；Evaluation Indicator；Recidivism；Predictive Validity
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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我國對性侵犯施以強制治療迄今已逾20年，各式評估書表雖已標準化，但仍缺乏本土化實證研究檢視其再犯預測效度。因此，本研究探討各種性犯罪解釋理論及再犯實證研究成果，並蒐集性侵犯入監評估報告書、治療成效報告書、再犯危險評估報告書、治療處遇紀錄、STATIC-99及出監後再犯紀錄等資料，以分析現行評估工具之預測效度與建構解釋性侵再犯之預測模型。研究樣本為2006至2007年間於臺北、臺中及高雄等3所治療專責監獄出監性侵犯，共有996人，佔當時全部樣本比率約68.88%。
研究發現：(一)五年內再犯性犯罪及非性犯罪比率分別為5.62%及32.83%，再犯高峰期係出監後三年；(二)早期依附關係不良(家庭和學校)、具負向經驗與特質(被性侵害、早期家庭壓力事件多、衝動/情緒控制差、人格違常)、未婚者、成年後家庭壓力事件多、短期內有職業或性生活問題、前科與偏差經驗多(性偏差與性侵前科、暴力犯罪史、施用毒品等)、犯案前曾看色情影片或飲酒、曾性侵陌生人、使用暴力性侵、有固定性犯罪模式或特別儀式、否認程度低者、篩選為須治療、個別治療次數愈多、治療時間愈長、未通過治療評估、無維持親密關係能力、持續與偏差同儕來往、居住地可能不穩定、出監年齡及教育程度愈低者，其再犯率愈高；(三)除治療成效評估表外，Static-99、RRASOR及再犯可能性評估總分或危險性分類愈高時，其再犯可能性愈高，性犯罪存活時間也愈少，但前開量表之ROC曲線分析AUC值均未達0.7；(四)以本研究所建構之性侵再犯預測模型為基礎，並整合現行量表，提出性侵犯之全般犯罪、性犯罪再犯預測整合量表(SORPIS-A；SORPIS-S)，二個量表AUC值分別為.770及.755，具有更佳之預測力。
按前開研究成果提出建議：(一)依再犯高峰期實施社區監控，擴大再犯預防目標；(二)改良現行各式評估書表，建構處遇資料品質督導機制；(三)結合臨床評估與預測量表，提昇再犯預測力；(四)重視性侵犯性偏差特性之靜態或穩定因素資料蒐集；(五)以本研究整合量表為基礎，滾動式檢討與修正預測量表；(六)加強政學合作累積性侵犯處遇及再犯資料，進行長期縱貫性追蹤研究；(七)檢討人格違常定義與處遇方式；(八)強制治療處分適用對象避免寬濫；(九)重視早期依附關係，健全家庭與學校功能；(十)善用再犯預測強化處遇、社區監控及刑後強制治療鑑定評估成效。
The study explores the theories of sexual offence and the results of empirical researches on recidivism, gathering the official secondary material of imprisonment evaluation report, correction efficiency report, recidivism evaluation report, correction details, STATIC-99, recidivism report of sexual assault to establish the recidivism prediction module and to analyze the validity of the evaluation tools. The sample was comprised of 996 sexual offenders, which had been released from three prisons with dedicated treatment in Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung between 2006 and 2007, accounting for 68.88% of the entire sample.
The study shows: (I) the rate of recidivism of sexual and non-sexual offenses within five years are respectively 5.62% and 32.83%, with recidivism reaching a peak in three years after release of imprisonment; (II) The recidivism rate is higher in the following situations: poor early stage relationships (family and school), encounter of negative experiences and characteristics (sexual assault victims, numerous early stage family stressful events, impulsiveness and poor emotional control, personality disorder), being unmarried, having numerous stressful family events in adulthood, short term professional or sexual life problems, having a criminal record and experienced various deviations (sexual deviance and sexual assault convictions, violent criminal history, drug use, etc.), viewing pornography videos or alcohol consumption prior to committing offense, having sexually assaulting strangers, usage of violence in sexual assault, having persistent or special ceremonial patterns during sex offences, having a low denial level, having been selected to follow-up treatment, having experienced several individual treatments, having followed a long-term treatment, having failed treatment assessment, having no ability to maintain intimate relationships, being continuously unfairly treated by their peers, suffering probably a residential instability, being of lower age and education level after imprisonment; (III) In addition to the treatment efficacy evaluation form, a higher score in STATIC-99, RRASOR and assessment of the probability of recidivism or a higher hazard classification, will lead to a higher probability of recidivism, the persistence of sexual offenders will be shorter, but the ROC (Receiver operative characteristic) curve in the aforementioned scale indicates the AUC value to be inferior to 0.7; (IV) Based on the prediction model of sexual assault recidivism established by this study and integrating the current scale, two integrated prediction scales of recidivism in general crimes and in sexual offenses (SORPIS-A and SORPIS-S ) recommend prediction criterions with the AUC values respectively at .770 and .755, with both having a better predictive power.
According to the abovementioned results of the study, the following recommendations are made: (I) implementation of community-based monitoring in order to expand preventive objectives of recidivism, in accordance with the peak of recidivism; (II) improving the current evaluation forms and establish a quality supervision mechanism of the treatment data; (III) combining clinical assessment and prediction scale to improve the predictive power of recidivism; (IV) pay attention to the collection of data regarding the static state or stability factors of sex offenders’ sexual deviance characteristics; (V) implementing a rolling review and revision of the prediction scale on the basis of the integration scale of this study; (VI) strengthen the cooperation in political and academic fields to cumulate the data of sex offenders’ treatment and recidivism and to implement a follow-up longitudinal study in the long term; (VII) review the definition of personality disorder and treatment method; (VIII) apply a compulsory treatment sanction to avoid excessive behavior; (IX) emphasize early stage relationships and improve family and school involvement; (X) take advantage of recidivism prediction and strengthened treatment, community-based monitoring and assessment efficacy of compulsory treatment.
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