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題名:我國大陸經貿政策的分析:論兩岸經貿互動對於臺灣地區經濟發展之影響
書刊名:中國行政評論
作者:吳重禮 引用關係嚴淑芬
作者(外文):Wu, Chung-liYen, Shu-fen
出版日期:2001
卷期:10:2
頁次:頁135-166
主題關鍵詞:兩岸經貿國民生產毛額戒急用忍大膽西進Taiwan-Mainland economic interactionsGNPCaution and self-restrainCourageously go west
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(6) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:21
  • 點閱點閱:41
邇來,兩岸經貿交流愈趨頻繁,我國民間企業前往大陸蔚為風潮,這種情形是否會對於台灣地區經濟發展產生負面影響,而政府究竟應否管制我國企業赴大陸投資,咸已成為眾所關切的議題。本文以1995年至1999年期間,我國國民生產毛額的影響因素為研討的核心,參酌相關理論,設定迴歸模型,進行實證分析。變數檢定及迴歸方程式的分析結果顯示,我國對大陸出口貿易順差與政府國內投資金額,對於國民生產毛額的變動具有顯著影響。本文推論,益形蓮勃的兩岸經貿交流,對於我國經濟發展而言,所帶來的正面效應大於負面影響,因此,一旦緊縮兩岸經貿往來,則我國總體經濟發展所面臨的街擊可能較為顯著。當此之際,我國政府對於兩岸經貿政策的走向,應該扮演積極興利的角色,經由調整國內產業結構,以及改善投資環境,才能促進台灣地區經濟的穩定發展。
Facing its flourishing economic relationship with Mainland China since the late 1980s, the Taiwan government is in a dilemma of regulating the investments of Taiwanese business community in China or not. Another critical issue is whether the cross-Strait economic interactions bring about negative effects on Taiwan's economic development overall. This study empirically examines the impacts of political and economic determinants on Taiwan's gross national product (GNP) during the period of 1995-1999. By analyzing relevant data through regression models, we refer that both the value of Taiwan's trade surplus with China and government domestic investments have a significant effect on Taiwan's GNP. The results also reveal that the booming economic interactions between Taiwan and China are of benefit to Taiwan、s economy. Throughout this essay and in the conclusion, we argue that adjusting domestic industrial structure and improving Taiwan's investment environment should be the best strategies to maintain Taiwan's economic prosperity.
期刊論文
1.Leng, Tse-Kang(1998)。Dynamics of Taiwan-Mainland China Economic Relations。Asian Survey,38(5),494-509。  new window
2.高長、徐東海(19970900)。兩岸經貿發展趨勢與因應對策剖析。理論與政策,11(4)=44,98-109。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Pye, Lucian W.(1990)。Political Science and the Crisis of Authoritarianism。American Political Science Review,84(1),3-19。  new window
4.林德昌(19970200)。海峽兩岸的經貿投資與政經互動關係。中國大陸研究,40(2),6-20。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Schwert, G. William(1989)。Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation。Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,7(2),147-159。  new window
6.冷則剛(19980400)。從美國對南非的經貿管制探討我對大陸的經貿政策。中國大陸研究,41(4),17-38+75。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Chase-Dunn, Christopher(1975)。The Effects of International Economic Dependence on Development and Inequality: A Cross-National Study。American Sociological Review,40(6),720-738。  new window
8.吳重禮、嚴淑芬(19990700)。「戒急用忍」或「大膽西進」﹖我國對於大陸投資的影響因素評估。問題與研究,38(7),43-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1979)。Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root。Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366),427-431。  new window
10.Phillips, Peter C. B.、Perron, Pierre(1988)。Testing for a unit root in time series regression。Biometrika,75(2),335-346。  new window
11.鍾琴(1996)。為何大陸投資應該設限?。經濟前瞻,11(6),24-32。  延伸查詢new window
12.周添城(1997)。兩岸經貿發展的戰略思考。理論與政策,11(4),86-97。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.于宗先(1996)。兩岸關係與臺灣經濟。自由中國之工業,86(6),9-18。  延伸查詢new window
14.葉萬安(1995)。創造兩岸經濟共同繁榮之作法-建設臺灣成為亞太營運中心。自由中國之工業,84(4),1-16。  延伸查詢new window
15.俞慧芸、黃振聰、劉常勇(1993)。大陸臺商經營現況之研究。臺灣經濟金融月刊,29(10),58-74。  延伸查詢new window
16.吳重禮、嚴淑芬(2000)。公營事業對於臺灣地區經濟發展之影響評估。公營事業評論,2(2),51-78。  延伸查詢new window
17.孫克難(1991)。從市場失靈分析政府支出的性質與發展趨勢。經濟前瞻,24,119-122。  延伸查詢new window
18.Griffin, Keith、Gurley, John(1985)。Radical Analyses of Imperialism, the Third World, and the Transition to Socialism: A Survey Article。Journal of Economic Literature,23,1089-1143。  new window
圖書
1.趙捷謙(1984)。經濟學要義。臺北:五南圖書。  延伸查詢new window
2.高長(1997)。兩岸經貿關係之探討。台北:天一。  延伸查詢new window
3.Keynes, John Maynard(1963)。General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money。New York, NY:Harcourt, Brace and World。  new window
4.廖光生(1995)。兩岸經貿互動的隱憂與生機。香港:香港中文大學香港亞太研究所。  延伸查詢new window
5.Amin, Samir(1977)。Imperialism and Unequal Development。New York, NY:Monthly Review Press。  new window
6.Amin, Samir、Pearce, Brian(1976)。Unequal Development: An Essay on the Social Formations of Peripheral Capitalism。New York, NY:Monthly Review Press。  new window
7.Nachmias, David、Nachmias, Chava(1979)。Public Policy Evaluation: Approaches and Methods。New York:St. Martin's Press。  new window
8.Leng, Tse-kang(1996)。The Taiwan-China Connection: Democracy and Development Across the Taiwan Straits。Boulder, Colo:Westview Press。  new window
9.高安邦(1997)。政治經濟學。台北:五南圖書出版有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
10.Hamilton, James D.(1994)。Time Series Analysis。Princeton University Press。  new window
11.余宗先(1989)。經濟學百科全書,第三冊:經濟理論。台北:聯經出版社。  延伸查詢new window
12.Lipset, Seymour Martin(1981)。Political Man--The Social Bases of Politics。Baltimore, Maryland:The Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
13.Rostow, Walt W.(1960)。The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto。Cambridge University Press。  new window
14.White, Gordon(1993)。Riding the Tiger: The Politics of Economic Reform in Post-Mao China。Stanford:Stanford University Press。  new window
15.Keohane, Robert O.、Nye, Joseph S. Jr.(1977)。Power and interdependence: world politics in transition。Boston, Massachusetts:Little Brown。  new window
16.Huntington, Samuel Phillips(1991)。The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century。University of Oklahoma Press。  new window
17.鄭竹園(1993)。海峽兩岸經濟發展與互動。海峽兩岸經濟發展與互動。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
18.Frank, A. G.(1971)。Capitalism and Underdevelopment in Latin America。Capitalism and Underdevelopment in Latin America。London, UK。  new window
19.(1982)。Dependency and Marxism: Toward a Resolution of the Debate。Dependency and Marxism: Toward a Resolution of the Debate。Boulder, CO。  new window
20.王友釧(1970)。總體經濟學。總體經濟學。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
21.孫震、高希均、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧(1985)。經濟學,下冊。經濟學,下冊。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.Stock, James H.(1984)。Asymptotic properties of Least Square Estimation of Co-Integrationing Vector,0。  new window
2.Wooldridge, Michael J.(1991)。Note on Regression with Difference-Stationary Data,0。  new window
圖書論文
1.Huntington, S. P.、Dominiquez, J. I.(1975)。Political development。Handbook of political science: Volume 3, Macropolitical theory。Reading, MA:Addison-Wesley。  new window
 
 
 
 
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