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題名:臺灣地區儲蓄率下降原因之研究
書刊名:東吳經濟商學學報
作者:林炳文
作者(外文):Lin, Ping-wen
出版日期:2002
卷期:37
頁次:頁65-89
主題關鍵詞:前瞻性消費模型儲蓄率扶養比率投資率金融自由化Forward-looking consumption modelsSaving rateDependency ratioInvestment rateFinancial liberalization
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:13
新古典學派成長模型主張儲蓄率提高祇會提高短期經濟成長率,內生成長理論學者則倡言高儲蓄率與高投資率就能夠使經濟成長率一直持續在高檔上。本實證研究顯示在1%顯著水準下, (1) 平均每人國民所得成長率與儲蓄率之間存在顯著的正相關; (2) 儲蓄率與扶養比率間呈現顯著的負相關; (3) 消費者物價 膨脹率愈高,儲蓄率愈低; (4) 儲蓄率與利率自由化政策呈現顯著的負相關; (5) 社會福利之出佔GNP比率與儲蓄率問呈現顯著負相關; (6) 在實施金融自由化政策後,解除利率管制與銀行營運的一些限制,消費支出傾向提高,消費習性改變,塑膠貨幣使用量佔GNP比率與儲蓄率間呈現顯著負相關。雖然目前臺灣的國民儲蓄率仍屬高者,但近十年來儲蓄率逐年下降的趨勢,不得不令人擔憂。政府如何透過金融發展和外匯管理政策,將儲蓄導入投資行列,是臺灣在新世紀起始一項重要的政策課題。
Neoclassical growth models suggest that an increase in the saving rate generate higher growth only in the short run. Models based on theories of endogenous growth predict that higher saving and investment rates can permanently raise growth rates. This paper reveals that when significant standard was 1 %,the saving rate in Taiwan would have (1)a significantly positive correlation with the growth rate of per capita national income, (2) a significantly negative correlation with the dependency ratio, (3) a significantly negative correlation with the consumer price inflation rate, (4) a significantly negative correlation with interest rate deregulation policies, (5) a significantly negative correlation with the ratio of the expenditures for social welfare against GNP, and (6) a significantly negative correlation with the ratio of the volume of plastic money against GNP. With the adoption of Taiwan government's financial liberalization, the propensity to consume raised, the consumption habits changed, and there are structure changes in savings functions. The declining saving rate in Taiwan in the last decade is noticeable. How to adopt useful financial development and foreign exchange management policies to induce savings to investment is a very important issue at the beginning of the new era.
期刊論文
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4.江莉莉(19990900)。預防性儲蓄與全民健康保險。經濟論文叢刊,27(3),337-357。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Levine, Ross(1997)。Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda。Journal of Economic Literature,35(2),688-726。  new window
6.周濟(19980900)。在金融風暴中看臺灣的投資、儲蓄與國家競爭力。國立中山大學社會科學季刊,1(4),97-120。  延伸查詢new window
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研究報告
1.沈中華(2000)。我國金融自由化對總體經濟及產業發展之影響 (計畫編號:PG8907-0112)。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.董靜文(1993)。所得稅負、公司儲蓄與家庭儲蓄:因果關係檢定(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.何南宏。臺灣省家計單位消費與儲蓄行為研究(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.于宗先、王金利(1999)。臺灣泡沫經濟。臺北:聯經出版公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.Friedman, Milton(1957)。A Theory of the Consumption Function。Princeton, New Jersey:Princeton University Press。  new window
3.林武郎、李慶男(1998)。臺灣儲蓄率下降原因之分析。臺北:行政院經濟建設委員會。  延伸查詢new window
其他
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2.施遵驊及李榮謙(2000)。台灣在WTO下的金融開放措施及其影響暨中央銀行貨幣政策的挑戰。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳文琪(1995)。儲蓄、利率、與通貨膨脹率--跨國性之探討。  延伸查詢new window
4.陳信福(1992)。資本利得與家庭儲蓄行為之關係--臺灣的實證研究。  延伸查詢new window
5.許振明及曹青雲(2000)。臺灣儲蓄與投資之長期均衡成長關係:向量自我迴歸誤差修正模型。  延伸查詢new window
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20.Maddison, Angus(1992)。A Long-Run Perspective on Saving。  new window
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31.Williamson, John and Mahar, Molly(1999)。A Survey of Financial Liberalization。  new window
 
 
 
 
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