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題名：香菸課稅效果之研究--門檻迴歸模型之運用
書刊名：臺灣公共衛生雜誌
作者：葉春淵／邱城英 引用關係／李家銘 引用關係／黃玟儀／洪榮耀 引用關係
作者(外文)：Yeh, Chun-yuan／Chiou, Cherng-ying／Lee, Jie-min／Hwang, Wen-yi／Hung, Lung-yao
出版日期：2009
卷期：28:4
頁次：頁289-299
主題關鍵詞：門檻迴歸；短視上癮模型；價格彈性；香菸消費；Threshold regression；Myopic addiction model；Price elasticity；Cigarette consumption
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:39
  • 點閱點閱:168
目標：在藉由香菸的價格彈性估計來評估提高香菸健康捐課徵對香菸消費的影響，研究結果有助於台灣未來調漲香菸健康捐之重要參考依據。方法：使用門檻迴歸(threshold regression)搭配短視上癮模型(myopic addiction model)，以1975-2006年的菸品價量時間數列資料，估計香菸的價格彈性。結果：高價區及低價區的香菸格彈性分別-0.7312及-0.1204。若依國民健康局菸害防制法修正案國內菸品健康捐由10元增加為20元，將使國人平均每人香菸消費減少14.36%，節省醫療支出約8.45%（約30.86億）。結論：門檻模型的估計結果與一般線性模式確實有差異；另一方面，從菸害防制及財政的觀點，課徵香菸捐將有助於抑制國人香菸的消費，又可以額外增加政府財政收益。
Objectives: This study evaluated the effect of increasing the Health and Welfare Tax on cigarette consumption by estimating cigarette price elasticity. Methods: We utilized a threshold regression with myopic addiction model to estimate the price elasticity for cigarettes sold from 1975 through 2006. Results: The results indicated that the price elasticity for cigarettes is -0.7312. Raising the tobacco health welfare tax from NT$10 to NT$20 per pack in 2009 will result in a total reduction of an average of 14.36% per capita in cigarette consumption and generate medical saving of 8.45%, or NT$3.086 billion. Conclusions: The authors hope that the results of this study will provide a useful reference for policymakers when instituting taxes on cigarettes as part of health policy. From public health and financial perspectives, an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes will have a significant effect on reducing cigarette consumption, and it will also generate additional tax revenue.
期刊論文
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6.李家銘、葉春淵、黃琮琪(20060300)。菸價要調漲多少：菸品健康福利捐課徵對香菸消費的影響效果。人文及社會科學集刊，18(1)，1-35。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Viscusi, W. Kip(1990)。Do Smokers Underestimate Risks?。Journal of Political Economy，98(6)，1253-1269。  new window
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9.Chaloupka, Frank(1991)。Rational addictive behavior and cigarette smoking。Journal of Political Economy，99(4)，722-743。  new window
10.Becker, G. S.、Grossman, M.、Murphy, K. M.(1994)。An empirical analysis of cigarette addiction。Am Econ Rev，84，396-418。  new window
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17.李家銘、葉春淵、洪榮耀(20070200)。香菸及檳榔課稅效果之研究。臺灣公共衛生雜誌，26(1)，17-25。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.White, Halbert L. Jr.(1980)。A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society，48(4)，817-838。  new window
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20.Huang BN, Yang CW.(2006)。Demand for cigarettes revisited: an application of the threshold regression model。Agri Econ，34，81-6。  new window
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22.Levy DT, Wen CP, Chen TY, Oblak M.(2005)。Increasing taxes to reduce smoking prevalence and smoking attributable mortality in Taiwan: results from a tobacco policy simulation model。Tob Control，14(Suppl 1)，45-50。  new window
23.Galbraith JW, Kaiserman M.(1997)。Smuggling and demand for cigarettes in Canada: evidence from time-series data。J Health Econ，16，287-01。  new window
24.Lewit EM, Coate D.(1982)。The potential for using excise taxes to reduce smoking。J Health Econ，1，121-45。  new window
25.Hu TW, Keeler TE, Sung HY.(1995)。The impact of California anti-smoking legislation on cigarette sales, consumption, and prices。Tob Control，4(Suppl1)，534-8。  new window
26.Cameron S.(1998)。Estimation of the demand for cigarettes: a review of the literature。Econ Issues，3，51-72。  new window
27.Yeh CY, Lee JM, Chen SH.(2006)。Economic gains and health benefits from a new cigarette tax scheme in Taiwan: a simulation using the CGE model。BMC Public Health，62，1-9。  new window
28.Lee JM, Chen SH.(2008)。The effects of price and smoking risk information on the demand for tobacco in Taiwan: an empirical study。Appl Econ，40，1757-67。  new window
29.Baltagi BH, James MG, Weiwen X.(2000)。To pool or not to pool: homogeneous versus hetergeneous estimations applied to cigarette demand。Rev Econ Stat，82，117-26。  new window
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32.Hu TW, Mao Z。Effects of cigarette tax on cigarette consumption and the Chinese economy。Tob Control，11，105-8。  new window
33.van WC.(2005)。Tobacco control in South Africa。Promot Educ，57(Suppl 4)，25-8。  new window
34.Ross H, AI-Sadat NA.(2007)。Demand analysis of tobacco consumption in Malaysia。Nicotine Tob Res，9，1163-9。  new window
35.Rijo MJ.(2008)。Price elasticity Estimates for tobacco products in India。Health Policy Plan，23，200-9。  new window
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研究報告
1.嚴道、黃松元、馬藹屏、蕭惠文、周曉慧(1994)。臺灣地區青少年對吸菸、飲酒、嚼檳榔之認知、態度、行為與其心理特質調查研究 (計畫編號：DOH83-HP-119)。  延伸查詢new window
2.Shafey O, Dolwick S, Guindon GE.(2003)。Tobacco Control Country Profiles 2003。Atlanta, GA。  new window
3.WHO.(1999)。The WHR 1999: Making a Difference。Geneva。  new window
4.謝啟瑞(1999)。香菸貿易自由化的福利效果分析。台北。  延伸查詢new window
5.李卓倫(2004)。探討課徵檳榔健康捐及檳榔管理可行方案研究—以中部地區為例。台北。  延伸查詢new window
6.World Bank.(2003)。Tobacco Control at a Glance。Washington DC。  new window
7.蔡憶文(2004)。評估菸酒稅法及其對菸品消費市場之影響 (計畫編號：BHP-92-Anti-Tobacco-2H02)。臺北：衛生福利部國民健康署。  延伸查詢new window
8.Gardes F, Starzec C.(2004)。Are tobacco and alcohol expenditures price elastic? The case of Poland consumption。  new window
圖書
1.Granger, C. W. J.、Terävirta, T.(1993)。Modeling Nonlinear Economic Relationships。Oxford University Press。  new window
2.Jha, Prabhat、Chaloupka, Frank J.(1999)。Curbing the Epidemic: Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control。World Bank Publications。  new window
3.Efron, Bradley、Tibshirani, Robert J.(1993)。An Introduction to the Bootstrap。Chapman & Hall/CRC。  new window
4.Chern WS, Zuo J.(1995)。Alternative Measure of Changing Consumer Information on Fat and Cholesterol。Indianapolis, Indiana。  new window
5.Chernick MR.(2008)。Bootstrap Methods: A Guide for Practitioners and Researchers。Hoboken。  new window
圖書論文
1.Tong, Howell(1978)。On a Threshold Model。Pattern Recognition and Signal Processing。Sijthoff & Noordhoff。  new window
2.Taylor, Allyn、Chaloupka, F. J.、Guindon, E.、Corbett, M.(2000)。The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Tobacco Consumption。Tobacco Control in Developing Countries。Oxford University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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