:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:臺灣地區人口出生數量的動態模擬
書刊名:人口學刊
作者:陳寬政 引用關係
作者(外文):Chen, Kuanjeng
出版日期:1997
卷期:18
頁次:頁1-18
主題關鍵詞:人口再生生育步調堆疊與疏散Population renewalFertility tempoPiling up and thinning out
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:105
  • 點閱點閱:28
近年來由於學者的努力,生育步調對加入口再生的影響已漸累積為人口學的重要文獻;生育步調包括平均生育年齡及其變異兩個成份,兩者雖然在經驗上時常連結互動而變化,理論上卻可各自獨立而影響人口之再生。人口年輪的生育步調改變雖然不致於顯著改變時期生育率的趨勢或走向,對於長期趨勢週圍的時期被動與曲折卻能產生相當大的影響。在我們對於台灣地區生育率轉型的長期趨勢已有相當瞭解的條件下,對生育步調的解析與研究將能有助加我們進一步暸解此一長期趨勢之外的時期性變動,在學術上構造一個完整的生育率理論,在應用上則協助我們分析人口趨向靜態盡展時的各項問題。本文使用模擬方法檢討生育步調對出生數量的影響,雖然不見得是比較「精確」的模型,卻較擬做於人口的實際經驗,讓我們可以暸解並控制模型輸入與輸出數揮間的對應關係,深入探討穩定人口模型所不能直接掌握,只能間接推論的現象。我們特別注意台灣人口出生數列於光撞撞所呈現的一前一盤兩個峰狀分佈,其峰點距離約為廿一年,顯然關連著人口再生的「記憶與遺忘」過程。1950年代生育峰期出生的人口於1970年代開始生育子女,視其生育率與生育步調而定,以其自有的形式複製其自身出土時所表現的數到形狀,乃有1970年代末期的第二控起伏;由於我們的基礎模擬數列涵蘊著生育步調加快與加緊的事實,第二波起伏的長度乃比第一波要來得短一點,峰度也陡一點,而肚一現象乃穩定人口模型的靜態比較所不能宜接樟腫的現象。我們的分析也指出第三波起伏於1990年代正在形成中,由於生育率轉型過注重期間的堆疊作用已經消耗殆盡,而晚近台灣 地區的育齡婦女生育步調已有趨緩的跡象,暗示著第三波起伏的峰點將會相對延遲到束,而起伏幅度也會小一點的結果。
Due to the efforts of Norman Ryder, the influence of fertility tempo on the population renewal process is now well-known to the demographers. The fertility tempo as formulated is composed of at least two parts: mean age of childbearing and variation in the age of childbearing. Empirlcally the two parts might be highly correlated in af­fecting the quantity of birth, theoretically the two parts can have distinct effects on the birth. By manipulating the distribution of age-specific fertilities, this paper simulates and examines the changes in the number of births in Taiwan since 1905. Two humps in birth number after the 2nd World War were indentified in the base­line analysis. The first hump can be attributed to the decline in mortality since 1920 and the decline in fertility since 1951; the growth in population of childbearing age coupled with the decreasing propensity of bearing children have resulted in the growth and decline of birth during the 50’s and 60’s. The second hump was determined a com­pressed replication of the first one through the renewal process. As a consequence of the continuous fertility compression after the war, the second hump appears to be shorter in length and larger in amplitude than the first hump. Much of the “excess”birth can be eliminated if the variation of age-specific fertilities were held constant to allow for an uninterrupted operation of the "averaging effect".
期刊論文
1.Coale, Ansley J.、Tye, C. Y.(1961)。The Significance of Age Patterns of Fertility in High Fertility Population。Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly,39(4),631-646。  new window
2.Feeney, Griffith(1991)。Fertility Decline in Taiwan: a Study Using Parity Progression Ratios。Demography,28,467-479。  new window
3.Goldman, Noreen(1980)。Far Eastern Patterns of Mortality。Population Studies,34,5-19。  new window
4.Manton, Kenneth G.、Stallard, Eric、Tolley, H. Dennis(1991)。Limits to Life Expectancy: Evidence, Prospects, and Implications。Population and Development Review,17,603-637。  new window
5.Ryder, Norman B.(1990)。What is going to happen to American fertility?。Population and Development Review,16,433-454。  new window
6.Vaupel, James W.、Goodwin, D. G.(1987)。The Concentration of Reproduction among the U. S. Women。Population and Development Review,13,723-730。  new window
7.李美玲(19900800)。臺灣地區婦女的生育步調與生育轉型。人口學刊,13,145-166。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.陳寬政、葉天鋒(19830500)。日據時代以來臺灣地區人口年齡組成之變遷:1905-1979。國立臺灣大學人口學刊,6,99-114。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.涂肇慶、陳寬政(19881100)。調節生育與國際移民:未來臺灣人口變遷的兩個關鍵問題。人文及社會科學集刊,1(1),77-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.陳寬政(19870600)。人口週期研究上的一些問題。人口學刊,10,15-28。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.李少民(19881100)。中國大陸的人口政策:固定年出生數的政策模型之提出。人文及社會科學集刊,1(1),99-120。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Tu, Jow-ching(19850900)。On Long-term Mortality Trends in Taiwan, 1906~1980。中國社會學刊,9,145-164。new window  new window
13.陳寬政、王德睦、陳文玲(19860600)。臺灣地區人口變遷的原因與結果。人口學刊,9,1-23。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.王德睦(19880600)。臺灣地區嬰幼兒死亡率對生育率之影響。人口學刊,11,1-17。new window  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.Mirzaee, Mohammed(1979)。Trends and determinants of mortality in Taiwan, 1895-1975(博士論文)。University of Pennsylvania。  new window
圖書
1.陳正祥、段紀憲(1951)。台灣之人口。台北:台灣銀行經濟研究室。  延伸查詢new window
2.Coale, Ansley J.(1972)。The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation。Princeton:University of Princeton Press。  new window
3.Coale, Ansley J.、Demeny, Paul(1983)。Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations。New York:Academic Press。  new window
4.United Nations(1982)。Model Life Tables for Developing Countries。New York:United Nations。  new window
5.Barclay, George W.(1954)。Colonial Development and Population in Taiwan。Princeton University Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Ryder, Norman B.(1960)。The Structure and Tempo of Current Fertility。Demographic and Economic Changes in Developed Countries。Princeton:University of Princeton Press。  new window
2.Ryder, Norman B.(1980)。Components of Temporal Variations in American Fertility。Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies。London:Taylor and Francis。  new window
3.Ryder, Norman B.(1983)。Cohort and Period Measures of Changing Fertility。Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries。New York:Academic Press。  new window
4.Sun, Tehsiung、Soong, Yungli(1979)。On Its Way to Zero Growth: Fertility Transition in Taiwan, Republic of China。Fertility Transition of the East Asian Populations。Honolulu:The University Press of Hawaii。  new window
5.王德睦(1989)。嬰幼兒死亡率影響生育率之模擬分析。臺灣社會現象的分析。臺北:中央研究院三民主義研究所。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關著作
 
無相關點閱
 
QR Code
QRCODE