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題名：臺灣的死亡率步調效果：步調調整後的平均餘命
書刊名：人口學刊
作者：董宜禎／王德睦 引用關係
作者(外文)：Dong, Yi-jhen／Wang, Te-mu
出版日期：2011
卷期：42
頁次：頁43-79
主題關鍵詞：步調效果；平均餘命；時期率；邏輯斯模型；Gompertz死亡率改變模型；Tempo effect；Life expectancy；Period rate；Logistic model；Gompertz mortality change model
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「步調效果」(tempo effect)的研究首度出現在生育率上，之後逐漸擴展至其他時期率的討論，尤其是初婚率與死亡率。所謂的「步調效果」是指慣用的「時期」測量，其多種率與平均餘命會受到「步調」影響，產生偏誤的情形(Bongaarts and Feeney 2006)。有鑑於此，去除年齡改變所造成的扭曲，估計「實際」的趨勢變化已成為長久以來學界努力的目標。一般均接受生育步調改變會對時期別生育率產生影響，但對於死亡率的步調效果則有較大爭議。另一方面，臺灣目前僅有生育率與初婚率步調效果的研究，對於死亡率步調的討論與經驗研究尚付之闕如。因此本研究乃針對死亡率步調作系統性的討論，進一步探究臺灣死亡率的步調效果，瞭解死亡率下降的過程中，平均餘命受步調效果的影響與實際變化趨勢。研究結果發現，臺灣成人死亡率的變化同於其他高平均餘命國家，更接近邏輯斯模型(logistic model)而非Gompertz模型。此外，在當時條件(current conditions)的觀點下，調整過後的平均餘命與生育率一樣，為去除步調效果後的時期測量。當去除死亡的步調效果後，慣用的平均餘命有高估的現象，且女性大於男性，平均的步調效果各為2.3與2.1，女性的步調效果高於瑞典、美國、德國、丹麥、英格蘭與威爾斯，原因可能是臺灣死亡率下降的速度較快，造成步調效果偏高的情形。再者，兩性在調整過後平均餘命之差異上，一路呈現平滑的上升趨勢，但在時期別指標之差異上卻受到步調效果影響，分成兩階段的變化，期間上下波動，這也顯示使用調整過後的平均餘命比未調整的平均餘命可能更可以反映當時的死亡率條件。
The tempo effect was first discussed and applied to fertility studies, before being extended to other fields such as marriage and mortality. The tempo effect means that the period quantum and tempo of conventional life tables are impacted by tempo, which results in bias (Bongaarts and Feeney 2006). Therefore, the goal of recent studies has been to adjust this tempo distortion, which results from a rise or fall in the mean age at which an event occurs, and to estimate the actual period measure of longevity. In general, the fertility tempo effect is widely accepted, but the mortality tempo effect remains controversial. Studies of the tempo effect on fertility and first marriage have been examined thoroughly in Taiwan. For this reason, our research focuses on the mortality tempo effect, and explores unadjusted and adjusted life expectancies in Taiwan. Our results show first, that the observed adult mortality rate fits the logistic model better than the Gompertz model, as in other countries with high life expectancy. On the other hand, tempo adjusted life expectancy measures current conditions, as does fertility. Second, when the tempo effect on mortality is excluded (thus the value of average life span is increased), the conventional life expectancy has a positive bias, with women having a higher life expectancy than men, and the average tempo effect is 2.3 and 2.1 years respectively. Finally, the tempo effect on women in Taiwan is higher than that in Sweden, the U.S., Germany, Denmark, England and Wales. The reason might be that mortality in Taiwan has decreased more sharply than other countries, causing the tempo effect to be higher. We conclude that the adjusted life expectancy is more accurate than the unadjusted one.
期刊論文
1.Bongaarts, J.(2002)。The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World。Population and Development Review，28(3)，419-443。  new window
2.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney, G.(1998)。On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Reply。Population and Development Review，26(3)，560-564。  new window
3.Schoen, R.(2004)。Timing Effects and the Interpretation of Period Fertility。Demography，41(4)，801-819。  new window
4.劉一龍、王德睦(20050600)。臺灣地區總生育率的分析：完成生育率與生育步調之變化。人口學刊，30，97-123。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Tu, Edward Jow Ching、Zhang, Xia(20041200)。Patterns of Low Fertility in Hong Kong and Taiwan。國家發展研究，4(1)，31-82。new window  new window
6.Bongaarts, John、Feeney, Griffith(1998)。On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility。Population and Development Review，24(2)，271-291。  new window
7.Makeham, W. M.(1860)。On the Law of Mortality and the Construction of Annuity Tables。Assurance Magazine，8(6)，301-310。  new window
8.王德睦、張國偉(2010)。時期率的量與步調：臺灣初婚率的分析。臺灣社會福利學刊，8(2)，29-66。  延伸查詢new window
9.王德睦、劉一龍(2008)。臺灣生育率再分析：ACF法的應用。人口學刊，36，37-65。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.楊靜利、李大正(2008)。臺灣出生與死亡資料之編製與調整，1905-1943與1951-1997。調查與研究，23，119-154。  延伸查詢new window
11.Bongaarts, J.(2005)。Long-Range Trends in Adult Mortality: Models and ProjectionMethods。Demography，42(1)，23-49。  new window
12.Ryder, N. B.(1956)。Problems of the Trend Determination during a Transition in Fertility。MilbankMemorialQuarterly，34，5-21。  new window
13.Ryder, N. B.(1964)。The Process of Demographic Translation。Demography，1，74-82。  new window
14.Sardon, J. P.(1994)。A PeriodMeasure ofMortalityy: The Example of France6，131-150。  new window
15.Winkler-Dworak, M.、Engelhardt, H.(2004)。On the Tempo and Quantum of First Marriages in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland: Changes in MeanAge andVariance。Demographic Research，10，231-264。  new window
16.Zeng, Y.、Land, K. C.(2002)。Adjusting Period Tempo Changes with an Extension of Ryders Basic Translation Equation。Demography，39，269-285。  new window
17.Schoen, R.、Canudas-Romo, V.(2005)。Timing Effects on FirstMarriage: Twentieth-Century Experience in England and Wales and the USA。Population Studies，59(2)，135-146。  new window
18.Thatcher, A. R.(1999)。The Long-Term Pattern of Adult Mortality and the Highest Attained Age。Jounal of the Royal Statistical Society，162(1)，5-43。  new window
19.Thatcher, A. R.、Cheung, S. L. K.、Horiuchi, S.、Robine, J.(2010)。The Compression of Deaths above the Mode。Demographic Research，22 (17)，505-538。  new window
20.Vaupel, J. W.(2002)。Life Expectancy at Current Rates vs. Current Conditions: A Reflexion Stimulated by Bongaarts and Feeneys How LongWe Live?。Demographic Research，7，365-378。  new window
21.Wilmoth, J. R.(2005)。On the Relationship between Period and Cohort Mortality。Demographic Research，13，231-280。  new window
22.Bongaarts, J.(1999)。The Fertility Impact of Changes in the Timing of Childbearing in the Developing Countries。Population Studies，53，277-289。  new window
23.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney, G.(2002)。How Long Do We Live。Population and Development Review，28(1)，13-29。  new window
24.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney, G.(2003)。Estimating Mean Life。Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences，100(23)，13127-13133。  new window
25.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney, G.(2010)。When Is a Tempo Effect a Tempo Distortion?。Genus，2，1-15。  new window
26.Guillot, M.(2006)。Tempo Effect inMortality: An Appraisal。Demographic Research，14，1-26。  new window
27.Horiuchi, S.(2005)。Tempo Effect on Age-Specific Death Rates。Demographic Research，13，189-200。  new window
28.Kohler, H. P.、Philipov, D.(2001)。Variance Effect in the Bongaarts-Feeney Formula。Demography，38(1)，1-16。  new window
29.Lesthaeghe, R.、Willems, P.(1999)。Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?。Population and Development Review，25(2)，211-228。  new window
30.Luy, M.(2006)。Mortality Tempo-Adjustment: An Empirical Application。Demographic Research，15，561-590。  new window
31.Rodriguez, G.(2006)。Demographic Translation and Tempo Effect: An Accelerated Failure Time Perspective。Demographic Research，14，85-110。  new window
會議論文
1.Guillot, M.(2003)。Does Period Life Expentancy Overestimate Current Survival? An Analysis of Tempo Effect in Mortality。USA。  new window
研究報告
1.(2004)。中華民國臺閩地區人口統計 (民國九十三年)。臺北：內政部。  延伸查詢new window
2.Luy, M.(2005)。The Importance of Mortality Tempo-Adjustment: Theoretical and Empirical Consideration。  new window
圖書
1.Thatcher, A. R.、Kannisto, V.、Vaupel, J. W.(1998)。The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120。Odense, Denmark：University Press of Southern Denmark。  new window
2.Preston, S. H., P. Heuveline, and M. Guillot.(2001)。Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes。Malden, Massachusetts：Blackwell Publishing。  new window
3.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney, G.(2006)。The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Course Events。Vienna Yearbook of Population Research。Austria。  new window
4.Guillot, M.(2008)。Tempo Effects inMortality: An Appraisal。How Long DoWe Live。Germany。  new window
5.Guillot, M.(2011)。Period Versus Cohort Life Expectancy。International Handbook of AdultMortality。New York。  new window
6.Luy, M.(2008)。Mortality Tempo-Adjustment: An Empirical Application。How Long DoWe Live。Germany。  new window
7.Rodriguez, G.(2008)。Demographic Translation and Tempo Effect: An Accelerated Failure Time Perspective。How Long Do We Live。Germany。  new window
8.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney, G.(2008)。Theoretical Basis for the Mortality Tempo Effect。How Long Do We Live。Germany。  new window
9.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney, G.(2008)。The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Course Events。How Long Do We Live。Germany。  new window
10.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney, G.(2008)。Five Period Measures of Longevity。How Long DoWe Live。Germany。  new window
11.Bongaarts, J.、Feeney. G.(2008)。Afterthoughts on theMortality Tempo Effect。How Long Do We Live。Germany。  new window
12.Goldstein, J.(2008)。Found in Translation? A Cohort Perspective on Tempo-Adjusted Life Expectancy。How Long DoWe Live。Germany。  new window
13.Vaupel, J. W.(2008)。Lifesaving, Lifetimes and Lifetables。How Long DoWe Live。Germany。  new window
14.Vaupel, J. W.(2008)。Turbulence in Lifetables: Demonstration by Four Simple Examples。How Long DoWe Live。Germany。  new window
其他
1.Feeney, G.(2003)。Mortality Tempo: A Guide for the Skeptic，http://www.gfeeney.com， 20100302。  new window
2.The Human Mortality database(2011)，http://www.mortality.org， 20110419。  new window
圖書論文
1.Ryder, Norman B.(1983)。Cohort and Period Measures of changing Fertility。Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries, Vol. 2: Fertility Regulation and Institutional Influences。New York：Academic Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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