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題名：調節生育與人口遷移對台灣人口結構之影響
作者：劉一龍 引用關係
作者(外文)：Yi-long Liu
校院名稱：國立中正大學
系所名稱：社會福利所
指導教授：王德睦
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2008
主題關鍵詞：第三次人口轉型；替換性移民；超低生育率；調節生育；國際移民；replacement migration；Third demographic transition；international migration；fertility adjustment；lowest-low fertility
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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台灣的TFR在2003年已達「超低水準（lowest-low fertility）」，2006年更下滑至千分之1115，引發後續人口快速老化的疑慮。儘管Bongaarts and Feeney（1998）認為TFR容易因生育步調影響而被低估，在去除生育的時間效果後，TFR調整值仍保持在千分之1400至1500間，故台灣女性的生育率依舊維持極低水準。低生育率的主要影響是人口結構老化、勞動人力不足及青壯年人口負擔加重等。早於20年前，珨F慶與陳寬政（1988）便建議利用「調節生育」和「國際移民」來因應人口問題。提高生育政策目的為促使家庭發揮弁遄A生育率回升是政策執行成奶U的產物，由於提高生育政策的內容十分豐富，故需付出高額經濟支出，同時，其他國家經驗證實生育率甚難回到人口「替換水準」之上，故United Nations（2000）主張以「替換性移民（Replacement migration）」來解決青壯人口負擔與勞動人力短缺的問題。晚近，台灣的人口政策綱領目標也從過去的「計劃生育」轉變成「維持人口合理成長」，2006年規劃的「人口政策白皮書」更將「生育」和「遷移」議題視為重要內涵，然而，目前尚未有研究連結二者探討日後人口組成發展，本文即是希望透過兼顧調節生育和各類人口遷移之效果，計算台灣人口在維持「潛在支持比（potential support ratio, PSR）」為3的前提下，各種生育和婚姻移民假設需要額外引進多少經濟勞動人力。
本文依照生育和婚姻移民差異設定四種假設，分別為TFR維持現狀（比較組）；TFR在10年內由目前的千分之1115上升至千分之1600（調節生育政策的影響）；考慮婚姻移民的數量和生育差異（婚姻遷移的影響）；兼顧調節生育政策與人口遷移效果。結果發現，未來人口總數都呈現先增後減，人口規模縮減已成定局；若能提高生育水準，2050年時，可以將老年人口比例降至30﹪以下，婚姻移民對降低人口老化的效果較不顯著。若以PSR趨勢觀察，各類假設的工作人口負擔沉重，工作人口內的中高齡者（45-64歲）比例亦逐年增加，預告更沉重的負擔來臨。將PSR維持在3，時間越晚所需的人口數量越多，預計自2030年開始便需陸續引進勞動人力以填補工作人口短缺問題。雖然，大量人口移入未造成「第三次人口轉型（third demographic transition）」，但在生育率持續低迷、依賴國際移民解決工作人口負擔的前提下，人口轉變趨勢將朝此發展。最後，根據United Nations（2000）估計，眾多低生育率國家日後也仰賴移入大量人力以為國家發展，預測未來人口政策目標將由當前的「維持人口合理成長」，調整為「吸引其他國家勞動人口移入」。
In 2003, Taiwan’s TFR had already reached the lowest-low fertility, and it even declined to 1115‰ in 2006, which caused the misgivings of fast aging population in the future. Although Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) think that TFR would be easily underestimated because of the influence of fertility pace, after eliminating timing effects of fertility, the adjusted TFR is still between 1400‰ and 1500‰; thus, the fertility rate of female in Taiwan is still very low. The main influences of low fertility rate are aging population structure, insufficient labor force, and heavier burden for the young population. Tu and Chen (1988) had proposed the use of fertility adjustment and international migration to manage population problem 20 years ago. The purpose of enhancing fertility policy is to urge family to develop its function, thus the rise of fertility rate is the success of policy implementation. Since the content of policy of enhancing fertility is abundant, thus great amount of economic expenditures is needed; in the meanwhile, other countries verify that it is quite difficult for fertility rate to get back to and be above population replacement level, so United Nations (2000) stood for replacement migration to solve the problems of young population’s burden and shortage of labor force. Recently, the essential goal of Taiwan’s population policy has also changed from the previous “family planning” to “maintenance of reasonable population growth”. “White paper for population policy” that was planned in 2006 even considered “fertility” and “migration” as important contents. However, none of the studies has connected “fertility” and “migration” together to discuss the composition and development of population in the future; this thesis hopes to calculate how many economical labor force is needed to be recommended additionally with regard to the assumptions of fertility and marriage migration through looking after the effects of both fertility adjustment and population migration under the prerequisite of maintaining Taiwan population’s potential support ratio (PSR) as 3.
This thesis sets up four kinds of assumptions according to the differences of fertility and marriage migration, which are maintaining the status quo of TFR (control group), TFR increases from current 1115‰ to 1600‰ within 10 years (influence of fertility adjustment policy), considering marriage migration quantity and fertility difference (influence of marriage migration), and giving consideration to the effects of both fertility adjustment policy and population migration respectively. The result finds out the total population in the future shows the phenomenon of increase first and decrease after, the reduction of population scope is a foregone conclusion. If it is possible to rise the fertility level, the ratio of aged population could be reduced to less than 30% by 2050; while the effect of marriage migration towards lowering aging population is relatively insignificant. If observing from the PSR trend, the burdens of work population in each kind of assumptions are heavy, the ratio of people with moderate to advanced age (45- 64 years old) among the work population also increases year by year, which predicting the coming of heavier burden. In order to maintain PSR at the level of 3, the later the time, the required population would be more and more, estimating that it is necessary to introduce labor force continuously so as to fill in the shortage of work population since 2030. Although the immigration of large number of population would not cause third demographic transition, the trend of population change would develop towards this transition under the prerequisite of continuously low fertility rate and depending on international migration to solve the burden of work population. Finally, according to the estimation from United Nations (2000), numerous countries with low fertility rates will be dependent on immigrating a large number of labor power to develop for the countries in the future, predicting that the goal of population policy in the future would be changed from the present “maintenance of reasonable population growth” to “attracting the labor force from other countries”.
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