本文以薄富爾（Andre Beaufre）的「政治診斷」架構為基礎，來檢視中國大陸與日本在釣魚臺爭端的互動。在行文安排上，首先討論中國與日本在釣魚臺爭端的背景因素，分別就二戰與冷戰遺緒、海洋權益、戰略判斷、民族主義等四個面向加以說明。其次探討中國與日本在釣魚臺爭端的癥結所在，分別就安全困境、美國「重返亞洲」戰略、外交政策、擴軍等四個面向加以說明。第三討論中國與日本在釣魚臺爭端的衝突預防，分別就戰略選擇的理性評估、核子嚇阻的制約、離岸平衡者的作用、區域預防衝突機制、經貿互賴的影響等五個面向加以說明。第四探討中國與日本在釣魚臺爭端的未來，分別就美國因素、中（共）、日關係的特性、外交領域的折衝、潛藏的戰爭危機等四個面向加以說明。整體而言，我國也是釣魚台問題的利害關係者之一，在可見的未來，釣魚臺風雲將會繼續的上演，國人應持續關切以避免釣魚台爭端所帶來的風險。

Based on Andre Beaufre's ＂Politics Diagnosis＂, this article discusses the dispute between China and Japan over Diaoyutai Islands. The paper will address first the historical background of the conflict. The analysis will focus on four major points: 1) the legacy of World War II and the Cold War; 2) maritime rights and interests; 3) strategic judgment; and 4) nationalism. This will consent to identify and discuss the four key dimension of the Sino-Japanese dispute on Diaoyutai Islands: 1) security dilemma of Sino-Japanese relationship; 2) the U.S. ＂Pivot to Asia＂ strategy: 3) Sino-Japanese foreign policy; 4) military expansion. The paper will also address the mechanism of conflict prevention in the case of Diaoyutai Islands. Conflict prevention dynamics will be explained by considering the following factors:1) rational assessment of strategic choice; 2) the role of nuclear deterrence; 3) off-shore balancer; 4) the regional regime for conflict prevention; 5) economic interdependence. The final paragraph will explore the future developments of the Diaoyutai Islands dispute, and the four main elements determining its evolution: 1) the American factor: 2) fighting without breaking of Sino-Japan relationship; 3) diplomatic contact, and 4) brinkmanship crisis. The R.O.C. is a key stakeholder in the dispute. To avoid the crisis to deteriorate into a conflict, R.O.C. will need to pay special attention to the emergence of any potential ＂casus belli＂ in the troubled water of Diaoyutai Islands.