本研究以SAS統計套裝軟體的狀態空間模式（STATESPACE MODEL），探討我國研 究所數量發展的有關問題。研究中分別就下列四個主要問題，進行我國研究所教育數量發展 策略之探討： １．未來我國研究所教育數量的發展如何定位？ ２．留學教育對我國研究所發展的影響如何？是衝擊？或是一種助力？ ３．我國研究所發展之理工與人文類科，兩者數量應如何平衡？ ４．公私立大學研究生合理比例如何訂定？ 根據教育部所公佈之歷年教育統計資料為基礎，分別進行研究生數量、研究生佔年底人口千 分比、文法商與理工農醫類研究生畢業人數，以及公私立大學研究生數量與比例有關未來發 展之預測。 文中比較了主要的狀態空間模式與 ARIMA 模式之預測值， 並詳列目前至公元 2000 有關研究生之預測值，以提供有關決策當局訂定高等教育政策之參考。

　　　　　This paper applied the SAS STATESPACE models to forecast graduate student increase in Taiwan. Addressing the following research questions, the author tried to develop some quantitative strategies for graduate education systems in future: 1. How to set an acceptable limit on the increase in graduate students? 2. What has been the influence of government policies concerning graduate study abroad? 3. How to balance the number of graduate students of the arts, the social sciences and that of the applied sciences? 4. How to set a reasonable graduate student ratio in both private and public universities? Using the data of Educational Statistics of the Republic of China published by the Ministry of Education in 1992, the author forecast the number of graduate schools, the number of graduate students, and the ratio of graduate students compared with the total population, major areas adifferent sectors of the universities from 1992 through 2000. The paper also applied the ARIMA model to forecast the number of graduate students and compared with that of STATESPACE. The STATESPACE model may help policy makers to formulate the general graduate education policy.