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題名：連續住宅竊盜犯作案手法與空間行為模式剖析
作者：陳瑞基
校院名稱：中央警察大學
系所名稱：犯罪防治研究所
指導教授：林燦璋
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2009
主題關鍵詞：連續住宅竊盜犯
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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住宅竊盜案件的發生對被害人不單只是造成財產損失，象徵精神堡壘的「家」遭到住竊犯的破壞與侵入後，被害人更會產生莫大的心理壓力及負面情緒。源此，解決住宅竊盜問題，一直是學術界與實務界的主要關心焦點之一。為提出有效的因應策略，本研究乃以住竊犯為研究對象，整合社會科學研究方法，進而鑑別住竊犯的作案手法、解析住竊犯的空間行為、了解作案手法、空間行為與案件連結的關係，具體結果更可提供實務機關的參考。
於回顧國內、外相關文獻資料後，據以彙整及分析住宅竊盜犯的作案手法與空間行為的研究面向。首先，作案手法係採犯罪階段前、中、後（Pre-, During-, Post-）的分析方法，界定為：犯罪前階段（含犯罪計畫、觀察標的及預留脫逃路線）、犯罪中階段（含侵入位置與方法、行竊歷程、行竊標的物、免遭識別、預防逃亡路線、停留時間長短）及犯罪後階段（含迅速處理贓物、固定銷贓管道）等三階段行為。其次，空間行為則分別有，圓圈假設（Circle Hypothesis）、劫掠型與通勤型（Marauder& Commuter）、緩衝區（Buffer Zone）、犯罪偏角（Directional Bias）、距離遞減（Distance Decay）、作案路程（Journey to Crime）、案件間距離（Inter-crime Distance）、續行偏角（Sequential Directional Bias）等八種研究取向。
為分析作案手法之三階段行為與空間行為之八研究面向，研究步驟主要有四：先以文獻探討法、焦點團體法等開發連續住宅竊盜行為跡證分析量表；其次，蒐集台北地區共27名「單獨」「連續」住竊犯及352件住宅竊盜之官方資料；再至案發現場確認案發現場的環境條件；最後以結構式問卷訪談法、EXCEL-VBA程式語言與量化統計法（即多元尺度分析法、集群分析及差異性檢定等）分析研究資料。主要研究結果摘述如下：
一、作案手法
（一）開發本土化住竊犯行為跡證檢核表，該表深具研究價值。除可提供其他竊盜犯罪研究（如共犯、不同地區、不同標的）的參考引用外，其發展方法更可作為其他犯罪類型相關研究時的參考。
（二）確認單獨連續住竊犯之作案手法與異常行為。研究發現：作案手法是完成住宅竊盜犯罪的必要行為；異常行為則是與完成犯罪無關的行為。
（三）鑑別住竊犯作案手法之共同行為與獨特行為。共同行為是指具共通性的行為群落；獨特行為是為具獨特性的「犯罪後警戒行為」、「侵入前防範行為」、「混雜行為」、「風險行為」、「便利與晚間竊盜行為」等五項行為群落，研究進一步發現此五項行為群落具有案件連結的功能與價值。
（四）進一步分析犯罪前、中、後三階段作案手法的變化性。其中以犯罪後階段行為最為穩定、犯罪前階段行為居次、犯罪中階段行為穩定性最差，依此變化性，進而提出住宅竊盜的「反向」偵查策略。
二、空間行為
（一）圓圈假設：27名個案均符合圓圈假設檢驗，其中有17名個案（62.96％）為劫掠型、10名個案（37.04％）為通勤型，此表示多數的住竊犯住居所是位於犯罪地所構成的假想圓內，具有空間上的意義。另外，研究並未發現有緩衝區的存在；在偏角的差異檢定則是劫掠型的最大偏角明顯大於通勤型。
（二）距離遞減與平均作案路程：27名個案之個體特徵與群體特徵均呈現距離遞減效應，且平均作案路程（7.32公里）不長。
（三）案件間關係：
1、案件間距離：27名個案之個體特徵與群體特徵均呈現案件間距離遞減效應，且平均案件間距離（3.68公里）不長。
2、案件間續行偏角：27名個案之個體特徵與群體特徵均呈現案件間續行偏角遞減效應，且平均案件間續行偏角（33.7度）不大。
3、案件間日程：27名個案之個體特徵與群體特徵均呈現案件間日程遞減效應，且平均案件間日程（36.11日）不長。
（四）27名個案傾向於「短時間」（Temporal Proximity）在「鄰近地點」（Geographic Proximity）犯案，此與國外文獻之鄰近重復現象（Near Repeat）相符。
（五）27名個案之個體特徵與群體特徵均呈現案件間距離較平均作案路程為短，顯示27名個案之犯罪地點間的空間關係，較具有集中的趨勢。
三、案件連結
（一）確認作案手法的獨特行為與案件間距離、案件間日程等三項行為跡證具有案件連結的功能。但三項行為跡證的連結效能，仍需進一步研究。
（二）空間行為較具準確性與應用性，其案件連結價值優於作案手法。
最後，依上述研究結果，提出具體的住宅竊盜偵查策略，並建議實務機關可依本研究之作案手法獨特行為、犯罪間距離與犯罪間日程等三項案件連結因子，建構案件連結系統與機制，且應該突破傳統警察機關管轄權的限制，不同機關彼此分享資源，才能發揮作案手法、空間行為與案件連結實際輔助住宅竊盜的偵查效能。
Burglary is a pervasive and intractable crime problem in Taiwan. It not only causes the property loss of the victim, but, after the house being invaded, he/she would face extremely psychological pressures and negative emotions. Therefore, the solution to reduce burglaries is one of the major concerns between academic researchers and practical practitioners. In order to provide effective and efficient strategies, this thesis focused on two major topics, which are modus operandi and spatial behaviors, respectively. The main aims of this thesis are to explore modus operandi of burglars, to examine the spatial behaviors of burglars, to investigate the relationships among modus operandi, spatial behaviors, and case linkage, and to provide the concretely investigative suggestions to the practitioners.
According to literatures, the author summarized the research approaches of modus operandi and spatial behaviors burglars. Firstly, the analysis methods on modus operandi were divided into three sections, which are pre-, during-, and post- sections. The pre-section included plan, date and time and observation. The during-section contained intrusion, burglary-process, stolen goods, anti- identification, escape route and the turnaround time. The post-section involved handing stolen goods, and fixed pipeline disposal of stolen goods. Secondly, there were eight issues about spatial behavioral behaviors: circle hypothesis, commuter &marauder, buffer zone, directional bias, distance decay, journey to crime, inter-crime distance, and sequential directional bias.
In the light of three M.O. behavioral sections and eight approaches on spatial behaviors, the thesis had four research approaches. The checklist of modus operandi was developed, firstly, through literature reviewing and focus groups. Then, this study collected official information with a sample of 27 single serial residential burglars, committing 352 offences in Taipei metropolitan of Taiwan. Thirdly, the author revisited the crime scene to confirm the environmental conditions. Lastly, the analytical methods in this thesis included structural interviewing, EXCEL- VBA programs, and quantitative statistics, which are MDS, cluster analysis, and difference tests. The main results are described as followed.
1. Modus operandi
1.1 The check list of burglars’ M.O. was developed, and it could be the reference of resembling researches about buglaries (i.e. types, and group), or other crimes.
1.2 The M.O. and unusual behaviors of residential burglars were affirmed. The findings of this thesis highlight that the M.O. was the necessary behaviors in committing the burglary and the unusual behaviors were redundances to the burglarys.
1.3 The common behavioral cluster and unique behavioral behavioral clusters were figured out. The common behavioral cluster was the behaviors that most buglars would operate definitely during the burglary. The five unique behavioral behavioral clusters, which are post-crime alarms, pre-invasion preventions, mixed behaviors, dangerous behaviors, and evening burglary, were the behaviors that buglars would operate independently. Furthermore, the five unique behavioral behavioral clusters would facilitate case linkage.
1.4 The variations of M.O. among pre-, during-, and post- sections are further discussed. The post-section was the stablest, the pre-section was the next, and the during-section was less stable. Accordingly, the reverse investigation was suggested in detecting residtent burglary.
2. Spatial behaviors
2.1 Circle hypothesis
27 burglars fitted in with circle hypothesis, and 63% of the sample displayed a marauder offence style, which suggested that the location of the home base played an integral role in the burglar’s choice of offence site. In addition, the buffer zone didn’t exist, but the directional bias was found (the maraudering style was siginificantly bigger than the commuting style).
2.2 Distance decay and journey to crime
It was found that the burglars typically did not travel very far from home to offend, and the journey to crime had been resulted in a distance decay curve at both individual aggregated levels (the average distance of 7.32 km).
2.3 The relationship between inter-crimes:
2.3.1 Inter-crimes distance:
It was found that the burglars typically did not travel to offend very far between crime sites, and the inter-crimes distance had been resulted in a decay curve at both individual aggregated levels (the average distance of 3.68 km).
2.3.2 Sequential directional bias:
It was found that the sequential directional bias had been resulted in a decay curve at both individual aggregated levels (the average bias of 33.7 degree).
2.3.3 Inter-crimes day:
It was found that the burglars typically re-offend in a few days, and the inter-crimes day had been resulted in a distance decay curve at both individual aggregated levels (the average days of 36.11days).
2.4 27 burglars tended to committed in temporal proximity and geographic proximity, which was fairly consistent with ‘’near repeat’’ effect described in literatures.
2.5 The inter-crimes distance of 27 burglars was even shorter than the j ourney to crime at both aggregated and individual level. Conquesently, the inter-crimes distance had the stronger central tendency than the journey to crime, suggesting that the spatial relationship between crime sites had much more investigative function.
3. Crime linkage
3.1 This thesis had discussed that unique behavioral clusters, geographic proximity, and temporal proximity can be practically implemented in crime linkage, but the potential of their uses in case linkage clearly need further exploration.
3.2 Due to accuracy and application, spatial behaviors in crime linkage show significant performance compared to modus operandi.
To conclude, the thesis may be of importance in investigativing burglary, in addressing suggestions about constructing case linkage system by combining unique behavioral clusters, geographic proximity, and temporal proximity, and in recommending the practical authority concrete suggestions about cross-distric, and information-shared.
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