本文以存量-流量模型為基礎，探討市場參與者對景氣與政府政策的預期於 房地產市場調整過程中所扮演的角色，獲得幾個重要而有趣的結論。首先，政府 容積政策將改變的訊息若於執行前揭露，將有明顯的宣告效果產生，建商將無視 於房地產市場的不景氣與節節高昇的空屋率而大量搶建，但建照面積的增加則會 促使房價與租金下跌。其次，當預期資本利得愈高時，會使房價上漲，但租金卻 會減少，因為屋主願意以相對較低的租金將房屋出租，並由長期的資本利得中獲 得補償，此可解釋為何國內長期租金與房價比偏低的現象。另外，預期景氣對於 新建數量的影響並不顯著，可能是因為以往房價的變化雖然是未來景氣的重要指 標，但由於房地產投資生產時間長，建商必須面對來自總體、區域以及個案本身 條件的影響，故不易從此單一變數反映出來。

This paper presents a simultaneous equation to examine how expectation of market participants and preannouncement of zoning control influence real estate cycles through three housing submarkets: rental market, sales market, and new construction market. One interesting finding is that, before the government announced a change in its zoning policy, builders constructed at maximum capacity despite fact that the real estate market was already depressed. Such construction only worsens the real estate market condition and extends the duration of depressed period. Another interesting finding is that the expected real estate cycles have different effects on rent and housing price. Although high capital gain expectations drive up the housing price, rent continues to decrease. A high vacancy rate, although decreasing the housing price, has little influence on construction starts.