:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:財政政策制定與政治操控:中央政治預算循環之實證分析
書刊名:空大行政學報
作者:傅彥凱
作者(外文):Fu, Yan-kei
出版日期:2005
卷期:16
頁次:頁41-74
主題關鍵詞:政治景氣循環政治預算循環財政政策政治操控選舉Political business cyclePolitical budget cycleFiscal policyPolitical manipulationElections
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(7) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:39
  • 點閱點閱:55
政治預算循環的理論假設政府會於選舉年採取擴張性的財政政策,增加政府支出,或是調降稅課收入,營造經濟繁榮的景象,以獲取民眾的支持。本文欲藉由政治景氣循環理論觀察我國中英政府在制定相關的財政政策時是否有選舉因素的考量,而偏好操控某些特定的財政政策工具。實證結果發現,在財政支出工具的檢驗模型當中,我們得到統計上相當顯著支持的證據,特別是解嚴之後的選舉年,臺灣明顯存在政治預算循環的行為;而在財政收入工具的檢驗模型當中,僅有稅課收入中的貨物稅模型達到統計上的顯著水準。我們發現臺灣的執政當局不僅偏好支出工具的採用,也偏好某些稅課收入工具的使用,不過收入工具在操控上顯然不及支出工具來的直接而且便利。
Political budget cycle theory assumes that before the election, the incumbents will adopt expansionary policies, such as more government spending and less tax revenue, which make the economy performance appear prosperous, to gain voters support. The main purpose of this paper is to observe if fiscal policy making is associated with elections, and if the government adopts a certain fiscal policy tools in order to attract constituents, attention. On the test model of government spending tools, significant evidence has been discovered in support of the political budget cycle in Taiwan, especially in the election years after martial law ended. On the test model of government revenue tools, the relevance merely shows in commodity tax model. To sum up, the incumbents not only adopt government spending tools but also government revenue tools even thought the manipulation of revenue tools is not as direct and convenient as that of spending tools.
期刊論文
1.Rogoff, Kenneth(1990)。Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles。American Economic Review,80(1),21-36。  new window
2.Schultz, A. Kenneth(1995)。The Politics of the Political Business Cycle。British Journal of Political Science,25,79-99。  new window
3.黃上紡(19960500)。選舉與經濟--政治性景氣循環。美歐月刊,11(5)=121,51-66。  延伸查詢new window
4.Alesina, A.、Roubini, N.(1992)。Political Cycles in OECD Economics。Review of Economics Studies,59,663-688。  new window
5.Carlsen, F.(1997)。Opioion Polls and Political Business Cycle?。Public Choice,92(3/4),387-406。  new window
6.黃英哲、劉瑞宇(19960100)。總體政策與選舉的關係--臺灣地區實證分析。企銀季刊,19(3),104-113。  延伸查詢new window
7.Berger, Helge、Woitek, Ulrich(1997)。Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany。Public Choice,91(2),179-197。  new window
8.Frey, Bruno S.、Schneider, Friedrich(1978)。An Empirical Study of Politico-Economic Interaction in the United States。Review of Economics and Statistics,60(2),174-183。  new window
9.Yoo, Keum-Rok(1998)。Intervention analysis of electoral tax cycle: the case of Japan。Public Choice,96(3),241-258。  new window
10.Price, S.(1998)。Comment on the Politics of the Polieical Business Cycle。British Journal of Political Science,28,201-210。  new window
11.Nordhaus, William D.(1975)。The Political Business Cycle。The Review of Economic Studies,42(2),169-190。  new window
12.孫克難(20001200)。健全地方財政之全面思考。主計月報,540,11-17。  延伸查詢new window
13.Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr.(1977)。Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy。American Political Science Review,71(4),1467-1487。  new window
14.黃細清(19971100)。當前地方財源收入問題及改善之探討。財稅研究,29(6),24-39。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Davidson, L. S.、Fratianni, M.、Von Hagen, J.(1992)。Testing the Satisficing Version of the Political Business Cycle 1905-1984。Public Choice,73(1),21-35。  new window
16.羅清俊、萬榮水(19991100)。選舉與補助款的分配:綁樁?還是平衡地方財政?。選舉研究,6(2),121-161。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Keil, M. W.(1988)。Is the Political Business Cycle Really Dead?。Southern Economic Journal,55,86-99。  new window
18.Bizer, D.、Durlauf, S.(1990)。Testing the Positive Theory of Government Finance。Journal of Monetary Economics,26,123-141。  new window
19.Davidson, Lawrence S.、Fratianni, Michele、Von Hagen, Jurgen V.(1990)。Testing for Political Business Cycle。Journal of Policy Modeling,12,35-59。  new window
20.Eccleston, R.(1998)。The Fiscal-electoral Nexus in Australia, 1976-94。Australian Journal of Political Science,33(2),267-279。  new window
21.Ergun, M.(2000)。Electoral Political Business Cycles in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey。Russian and East European Finance and Trade,36(6),6-32。  new window
22.Hess, G. D.(1993)。Are Tax Rate Too Violate?。Southern Economic Journal,25,201-214。  new window
23.Kiefer, D. M.(1988)。A History of the US Federal Budget and Fiscal Policy。Public Finance,43(1),113-137。  new window
研究報告
1.黃世鑫(2002)。二〇一〇社會發展策略實施計畫。台北。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.章國良(2001)。台灣之選舉與總體政策循環(碩士論文)。國立中山大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.謝素芳(2000)。臺灣民主化對財經政策的影響(碩士論文)。國立東華大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.(1990)。Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies。Ann Arbor, Michigan:University of Michigan Press。  new window
2.Dunleavy, Patrick、O'Leary, Brendan(1987)。Theories of the State: The Politics of Liberal Democracy。The Macmillan Press Ltd.。  new window
3.韋端(2003)。政府財政改革成效。台北市:財團法人國家政策研究基金會。  延伸查詢new window
4.Alesina, A.、Roubini, N.、Cohen, G. D.(1997)。Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy。MIT Press。  new window
5.Tufte, Edward R.(1978)。Political Control of the Economy。Princeton, N. J.:Princeton University Press。  new window
6.Mueller, Dennis C.(1989)。Public Choice II: A Revised Edition of Public Choice。Cambridge University Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Frey, B.、Schneider, F.(1978)。Politico-Economic Models of Macroeconomic Policy。Political Business Cycles。University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關著作
 
無相關點閱
 
QR Code
QRCODE