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題名：Partisan and Personal Voting in SNTV: A Mixed Logit Model
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：鮑彤 引用關係
作者(外文)：Batto, Nathan F.
出版日期：2013
卷期：20:1
頁次：頁121-153
主題關鍵詞：單記非讓渡投票選制；混合洛基模型；投票抉擇；Single non-transferable vote；SNTV；Mixed logit；Vote choice；立委選舉
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:95
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過去選舉制度的研究相信，在複數選區單記非讓渡投票選制 (SNTV)的選舉，政黨與個人因素對選民的投票抉擇「應該」相當重要。然而，現有選舉行為的文獻並未就此一信念予以嚴格檢驗。本文證據顯示，雖然這兩類因素都有顯著影響，「政黨」因素遠比「個人」因素更強而有力。概括來看，在選民的投票抉擇當中，政黨因素最為關鍵；在同黨候選人之間，個人因素可用以決勝負。再者，政黨因素與個人因素也有交互作用。不同的政黨脈絡下，選民對個人因素重要與否的判斷有所不同，表面上看似屬於候選人的個人投票，其實政黨因素的考量可能影響很大。 研究方法上，本文提出混合洛基模型 (mixed logit)，作為SNTV投票抉擇模型的適當統計工具，所檢驗的民調資料係針對1992年至2004年台灣五次立委選舉的調查。
There are reasons to believe that both partisan and personal factors should be important in the voting decision in SNTV elections, but this has not been rigorously tested in previous literature. This paper presents evidence that both types of factors have significant impacts, but partisan factors are much more powerful than personal factors. In general, partisan factors dominate the candidate vote choice, and personal factors serve primarily as tiebreakers among candidates from the same party. Moreover, the importance that voters place on personal factors varies in different partisan contexts, and there is generally a partisan logic to these varying weights. Methodologically, this paper proposes mixed logit as an appropriate tool for modeling voting choices in SNTV and examines data from the five legislative elections in Taiwan from 1992 to 2004.
期刊論文
1.朱雲漢(19960500)。臺灣選民在國會選舉中的政黨選擇：二屆國大選舉之個案分析。選舉研究，3(1)，17-48。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Batto, Nathan F.(2008)。Strategic Defection from Strong Candidates in the 2004 Taiwanese Legislative Election。Japanese Journal of Political Science，9(1)，21-38。  new window
3.Batto, Nathan F.,、Henry A. Kim.(2012)。Coordinative Advantages of State Resources under SNTV: The Case of Taiwan。Japanese Journal of Political Science，13(3)，355-377。  new window
4.Hole, Arne R.(2007)。Fitting Mixed Logit Models by Using Maximum Simulatied Likelihood。The Stata Journal，7(3)，388-401。  new window
5.Richardson, Bradley M.(198809)。Constituency Candidates versus Parties in Japanese Voting Behavior。American Political Science Review，82(3)，695-718。  new window
6.蔡佳泓(20080300)。Making Sense of Issue Position, Party Image, Party Performanc, and Voting Choice: A Case Study of Taiwan's 2004 Legislative Election。人文及社會科學集刊，20(1)，1-24。new window  new window
7.Cox, Gary W.、Thies, Michael F.(199806)。The Cost of Intraparty Competition: The Single Nontranferable Vote and Money Politics in Japan。Comparative Political Studies，31(3)，267-291。  new window
8.Batto, Nathan F.(2005)。Electoral Strategy, Committee Membership, and Rent Seeking in the Taiwanese Legislature, 1992-2001。Legislative Studies Quarterly，30(1)，43-62。  new window
9.Carey, John M.、Shugart, Matthew Soberg(1995)。Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote: A Rank Ordering of Electoral Formulas。Electoral Studies，14(4)，417-439。  new window
10.Glasgow, Garrett(2001)。Mixed Logit Models for Multiparty Elections。Political Analysis，9(2)，116-136。  new window
11.游清鑫(19960500)。選舉制度、選舉競爭與選舉策略：八十四年北市南區立委選舉策略之個案研究。選舉研究，3(1)，137-177。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Cox, Gary W.、Niou, Emerson M. S.(1994)。Seat Bonuses Under the Single Nontransferable Vote System: Evidence From Japan and Taiwan。Comparative Politics，26(2)，221-236。  new window
13.Cox, Gary W.、Rosenbluth, Frances(1994)。Reducing Nomination Errors: Factional Competition and Party Strategy in Japan。Electoral Studies，13(1)，4-16。  new window
14.Hensher, D.、Greene, W.(2003)。The mixed logit model: The state of practice。Transportation，30，133-176。  new window
15.Brambor, Thomas、Clark, William Roberts、Golder, Matt(2006)。Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses。Political Analysis，14(1)，63-82。  new window
16.蔡佳泓、徐永明(2005)。Expected-utility Voting in Taiwan's Legislative Elections: 1995, 1998, and 2001。International Political Science Review，26(4)，397-412。  new window
17.Tsai, Chia-hung(2005)。Policy-Making, Local Factions and Candidate Coordination in Single Non-Transferable Voting: A Case Study of Taiwan。Party Politics，11(1)，59-77。  new window
研究報告
1.陳義彥(1992)。選舉行為與台灣地區的政治民主化：從第二屆立法委員選舉探討 (計畫編號：NSC82-0301-H-004-034)。台北。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳義彥(1995)。選舉行為與台灣地區的政治民主化(IV)：從八十四年立法委員選舉探討 (計畫編號：NSC84-2414-H-004-053-B2)。台北。  延伸查詢new window
3.劉義周(1998)。選區環境條件與選民行為：一九九八年立法委員選舉之科際整合研究 (計畫編號：NSC88-2414-H-004-017)。台北。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Bouissou, Jean Marie.(1999)。Organizing One’s Support Base under SNTV: The Case of Japenese Koenkai.。Elections in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan under the Single Non-Transferable Vote: The Comparative Study of an Embedded Institution。Ann Arbor：University of Michigan Press。  new window
2.Train, Kenneth.(2009)。Discreet Choice Methods with Simulation。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
3.Curtis, Gerald L.(1971)。Election Campaigning Japanese Style: With a New Preface。New York：Columbia University Press。  new window
4.Popkin, Samuel L.(1991)。The Reasoning Voter: communication and persuasion in presidential campaigns。Chicago, IL。  new window
5.Ramseyer, J. Mark、Rosenbluth, Frances McCall(1993)。Japan's Political Marketplace。Cambridge, Massachusetts：Harvard University Press。  new window
6.Pitkin, Hanna Fenichel(1967)。The Concept of Representation。University of California Press。  new window
7.黃秀端(19940000)。選區服務：立法委員心目中連任之基礎。臺北：唐山。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Miyake, Ichiro(1999)。Candidate Evaluation and Voting Choice under the Japanese Electoral System。Elections in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan under the Single Non-Transferable Vote: The Comparative Study of an Embedded Institution。Ann Arbor：University of Michigan Press。  new window
2.McCubbins, Mathew D.、Rosenbluth, Frances M.(1995)。Party Provision for Personal Politics: Dividing the Vote in Japan。Structure and Policy in Japan and the United States。Cambridge。  new window
3.劉一周(1999)。Campaigning in an SNTV System: The Case of Kuomington in Taiwan。Elections in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan under the Single-nontransferable Vote: The Comparative Study of an Embedded Institution。Ann Arbor, MI：The University of Michigan Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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