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題名:臺中市2009年免費公車政策對搭乘人數之影響
書刊名:行政暨政策學報
作者:汪志忠 引用關係鄭雅云 引用關係
作者(外文):Wang, Chi-chungCheng, Ya-yun
出版日期:2015
卷期:61
頁次:頁79-99
主題關鍵詞:免費公車搭乘人數時間數列模式Free busRidershipTime-series model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:28
  • 點閱點閱:113
本研究的主要目的是評估臺中市免費公車政策對於公車搭乘人數的影響,主要使用2004年3月至2009年10月之臺中市公車搭乘人數之月資料,針對2009年5-10月所實施的免費公車政策,使用單根檢定與時間數列模式,建立沒有實施免費公車政策的公車搭乘人數預測值,並藉由比較公車搭乘人數的預測值與實施免費公車政策期間的實際值,實證分析免費公車政策是否具有提高公車搭乘人數之總體效果。研究結果顯示:免費公車政策的實施確實具有增加搭乘人數的效果,臺中市2009年5-10月所實施的免費公車政策,平均每月增加約14萬人次的公車搭乘人數,每月公車搭乘人數平均約提升6.9%。
Free bus policy has been implemented in Taichung city since August 2002. This research presents new evidence of the effect of free bus policy on ridership in 2009. An appropriate time-series model is developed for this evaluation, using March 2004- October 2009 monthly ridership data. Unit root test and Box-Jenkins modeling techniques are used to forecast the ridership that would have resulted if the free bus policy is not implemented. Effects of free bus policy on ridership are identified by comparing the forecasted ridership with actual ridership. Results indicate that the ridership averagely increased about 6.9 percent after free bus policy had implemented.
期刊論文
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4.汪明生、蘇明敏(20020900)。空氣污染防制政策分析--環保政策之成本效益探討。中國行政評論,11(4),127-144。new window  延伸查詢new window
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15.湯京平、廖坤榮(20040600)。科技政策與民主化:臺灣發展電動機車經驗的政治經濟分析。公共行政學報(政大),11,1-34。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.Herwartz, H.、Theilen, B.(2003)。The determinants of health care expenditure: Testing pooling restrictions in small samples。Health Economics,12,113-124。  new window
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會議論文
1.汪志忠、鄭雅云(2011)。都市交通治理與永續發展:台中市免費公車個案探討。地方治理與永續發展:慶祝中華民國建國100年學術研討會。臺北:文化大學華岡出版部。163-172。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.林茂文(2006)。時間數列分析與預測:管理與財經之應用。臺北:華泰文化事業股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.Box, G. E. P.、Jenkins, G. M.、Reinsel, G. C.(1976)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。San Francisco:Holden-Day。  new window
3.Lewis, C. D.(1982)。Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods: A Radical Guide to Exponential Smoothing and Curve Fitting。Butterworths Scientific。  new window
其他
1.Vobora, A.(2008)。Fare-Free Service at Lane Transit District: An Overview of Financial and Operational Impacts,http://www.ltd.org/reportsandpubs.html, 2009/11/20。  new window
 
 
 
 
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