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題名:北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定
書刊名:臺灣政治學刊
作者:傅明穎
作者(外文):Fu, Ming-yin
出版日期:1998
卷期:3
頁次:頁195-243
主題關鍵詞:市長選舉投票行為候選人形象政黨認同Mayoral electionVoting behaviorCandidate imageParty identification
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(24) 博士論文(5) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:24
  • 共同引用共同引用:30
  • 點閱點閱:159
     民國八十三年年底舉行之第一屆省市長選舉,是臺灣實施地方自治以來層級最高的地方行政首長選舉,更是牽動隔年第三屆立委選舉與八十六年總統選舉的重要指標,其歷史重要性不言而喻。雖由選民的人口結構與以往的投票記錄來看,臺北市被視為在野黨最有可能執政的區域,但依往年投票記錄看來,在野黨從未贏得相對多數的政黨支持,因此本次選舉在野黨籍候選人的獲勝,甚難歸諸於政黨支持的增加。另一方面,兩位在野黨的市長候選人均為高知名度立法委員,挑戰首次接受民意洗禮的現任市長,更加升高選戰激烈程度,成為媒體報導關注的重心。本文假設決定此次市長選舉勝負之主因並非選民政黨認同轉移或增加,而是候選人因素影響的結果。本文認為,選民在此次市長選舉中並未大幅改變其政黨認同,但三位候選人評價之差異超越政黨認同,成為影響本次選舉之最重要因素。本文採用臺大政治體系與變遷研究小組於一九九五年寒假所進行的實證研究資料,分析選民對候選人特質的認知程度、給予各候選人的相對評價、影響候選人評價的因素以及其與投票決定的關係。結果發現有八成以上的選民,可以認知到三位候選人之特質並給予評價,且候選人評價超越政黨認同,成為決定本次市長選舉最重要的決定因素。除此之外,選民對候選人特質評比能力愈高,候選人評價對投票決定的解釋力也愈高,顯示選民心目中候選人評價圖象愈清晰,對投票決定的影響亦愈大。
     This paper tries to uncover the most significant factor determining the outcome of the Taipei Mayoral Election in 1994. The previous research has discovered that the voting decision of the electorate in Taiwan was to a large extent determined by party affiliation. In addition, the ruling KLMT has gained a lions share of partisanship among the electorate. This situation did not change much in the election of 1994. This paper tries to answer how the DPPs candidate was able to win the election under this circumstance from the perspective of candidate factor. The candidate factor in elections has seldom been tackled during previous research. The argument of this paper is that candidate factor, particularly the evaluation of candidates, has surpassed the influence of party affiliation. It was the most decisive factor in voting decision among the Taipei electorate in 1994 mayoral election. It was discovered that although the balance of party attachment of Taipei electorate remained unchanged, the super evaluation on the DPPs candidate among a large proportion of the electorate helped the latter win the election.
期刊論文
1.Miller, Arthur H.、Wattenberg, Martin P.、Malanchuk, Okasana(1986)。Schematic Assessments of Presidential Candidate。American Political Science Review,80,521-540。  new window
2.Rabinowitz, G.、MacDonald, S. E.(198903)。A Directional Theory of Issue Voting。American Political Science Review,83(1),93-121。  new window
3.Markus, Gregory B.、Converse, Philip E.(19791200)。A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice。The American Political Science Review,73,1055-1070。  new window
4.Page, Benjamin I.、Jones, Calvin C.(1979)。Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties and the Vote。American Political Science Review,73(4),1071-1089。  new window
5.徐火炎(19930700)。選民的政黨政治價值取向、政黨認同與黨派投票抉擇:第二屆國大代表選舉選民的投票行為分析。國家科學委員會研究彙刊. 人文及社會科學,3(2),144-166。  延伸查詢new window
6.伊慶春、楊文山、蔡瑤玲(19921200)。夫妻衝突處理模式的影響因素:丈夫、妻子、和夫妻配對樣本的比較。中國社會學刊,16,25-54。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Stokes, Donald D.(1966)。Some Dynamic Element of Contests for the Presidency。American Political Science Review,60,19-28。  new window
8.Weisberg, Herbert F.、Rusk, Jerrold G.(1970)。Dimensions of Candidate Evaluation。American Political Science Review,64(4),1167-1185。  new window
會議論文
1.陳義彥(1995)。我國選民投票抉擇之影響因素:從民國82年縣市長選舉檢討。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.陳義彥、鄭夙芬(1993)。選舉行為與臺灣地區的政治民主化 : 從第二屆立法委員選舉探討。臺北:國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
2.雷飛龍、陳義彥(1987)。轉型期社會中的投票行為:臺灣地區選民的科際整合研究 (計畫編號:NSC76-0301-H004-12)。臺北:國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳世敏(1991)。臺灣地區選民的投票行為-一個理論模式的探索。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
4.雷飛龍、陳義彥、林邦傑、洪永泰、彭芸(1991)。臺灣地區選民的投票行為-一個理論模式的探索。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1991)。The Rise of Candidate Centered Politics: Presidential Elections of the 1980s。Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press。  new window
2.Campbell, Angus、Gurin, Gerald、Miller, Warren E.(1954)。The Voter Decides。Westport, Connecticut:Evanston, IL:Greenwood Press:Row, Peterson & Company。  new window
3.陳明通、陳德禹、胡佛、林佳龍(1980)。選民的投票行為。選民的投票行為。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
4.胡佛、陳德禹、陳明通、林佳龍(1983)。選民的投票行為。選民的投票行為。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
5.Asher, Herbert B.(1992)。Presidential Elections and American Politics: Voter, Candidates, and Campaigns Since 1952。Presidential Elections and American Politics: Voter, Candidates, and Campaigns Since 1952。California。  new window
6.Converse, P. E.(1966)。The Concept of Normal Vote。Elections and the Political Order。NY。  new window
7.Ranney, A.(1995)。Governing: An Introduction to Political Science。Governing: An Introduction to Political Science。臺北。  new window
圖書論文
1.陳義彥(1992)。選舉預測:民國七十五年增額中央民意代表選舉的實例分析。選舉行為與政治發展。台北:黎明文化公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.Lau, Richard R.(1986)。Political Schemata, Candidate Evaluations and Voting Behavior。Politica Cogniton。Hillsdale, NJ:Eribaum。  new window
3.Dalton, Russell J.、Wattenberg, Martin P.(1993)。The Not So Simple Act of Voting。Political Science: The State of the Discipline。Washington, DC:American Political Science Association。  new window
 
 
 
 
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