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題名：現任縣市長支持之研究：多層次貝氏統計之應用
書刊名：應用經濟論叢
作者：蔡佳泓
作者(外文)：Tsai, Chia-hung
出版日期：2014
卷期：96
頁次：頁69-104
主題關鍵詞：市長選舉；施政表現；投票行為；多層次貝氏統計模型；Mayor election；Government performance；Voting behavior；Bayesian multilevel model
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(4) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:127
  • 點閱點閱:59
過去對於政策與投票的研究偏重個別縣市的影響因素，並未考慮縣市之間的差異， 推論範圍有限。我們利用台灣選舉與民主化 (TEDS 2010C) 的調查資料，合併來自台北 市、台中縣、台中市、高雄縣、高雄市等五個縣市的受訪者，而且運用五都改制前的決 算資料，以多層次貝氏統計模型估計縣市之間的差異以及個人的政策滿意度影響現任者 支持的程度。結果發現在考慮政黨認同之後，社福、交通、環保等三項政策的施政滿意 度顯著地影響投票行為，而且縣市之間的確存在差異，但是這三項政策的預算並未影響 縣市之間的差異。我們也比較多層次模型的估計結果與勝算對數迴歸模型以確認結果的 可信度。
Democratic governments should seek for the best interest for citizens. In theory, incumbents should persuade voters to support them again with their performance, including budget distribution. It is important to evaluate the extent to which voters respond to government performance and re-elect the incumbents. This paper uses data from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS 2010C) and set up five clusters of respondents according to their residence in five counties or cities. Utilizing multi-level Bayesian analysis, I combine aggregate-level budget data of social welfare, transportation, and environmental protection, and corresponding survey data to test the hypothesis of individual and geographical influence on voting behavior. The results show that individual’s policy evaluation significantly influences voting behavior, while partisanship is taken into account. But government spending seems to have no impact on the probability of supporting the incumbents. A validation check of the estimates is provided.
期刊論文
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4.俞振華、蔡佳泓(20060600)。如何利用全國性民調推估地方民意？多層次貝式定理估計模型與分層加權的應用。臺灣政治學刊，10(1)，5-38。new window  延伸查詢new window
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7.蔡佳泓(20121000)。選舉課責：以2009年臺灣縣市長選舉為例。社會科學論叢，6(2)，36-67。new window  延伸查詢new window
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19.Park, D.、Gelman, A.、Bafumi, J.(2004)。Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Postratification: State-level Estimates from National Polls。Political Analysis，12，375-385。  new window
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24.Wlezien, Christopher(1995)。The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending。American Journal of Political Science，39(4)，981-1000。  new window
25.蔡佳泓、俞振華(20110600)。地方政府如何回應民意？以2006-2007年為例。臺灣政治學刊，15(1)，73-136。new window  延伸查詢new window
26.蕭怡靖、黃紀(20100600)。2008年立委選舉候選人票之分析：選民個體與選區總體的多層模型。臺灣政治學刊，14(1)，3-53。new window  延伸查詢new window
27.Gomez, Brad T.、Wilson, J. Matthew(2001)。Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution。American Journal of Political Science，45(4)，899-914。  new window
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29.Miller, Arthur H.、Wattenberg, Martin P.(1985)。Throwing the Rascals Out: Policy and Performance Evaluations of Presidential Candidates, 1952-1980。American Political Science Review，79(2)，359-372。  new window
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31.吳重禮、李世宏(20040700)。政府施政表現與選民投票行為：以2002年北高市長選舉為例。理論與政策，17(4)=68，1-24。new window  延伸查詢new window
32.Gelman, Andrew(2006)。Prior Distributions for Variance Parameters in Hierarchical Models。Bayesian Analysis，1(3)，515-533。  new window
33.Markus, Gregory B.(1988)。The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis。American Journal of Political Science，32，137-154。  new window
34.王肇蘭、許義忠、徐偉初(20081200)。臺灣地區地方政府效率暨生產力之評估。應用經濟論叢，84，71-120。new window  延伸查詢new window
35.謝復生、牛銘實(1996)。Issue Voting in the Republic of China on Taiwan's 1992 Legislative Yuan Election。International Journal of Political Science，17(1)，13-27。  new window
36.Hsieh, John Fun-sheng、Niou, Emerson M. S.(199605)。Salient Issue in Taiwan's Electoral Politics。Electoral Studies，15(2)，219-235。  new window
37.Kinder, Donald R.、Kiewiet, D. Roderick(1981)。Sociotropic Politics: The American Case。British Journal of Political Science，11，129-161。  new window
38.劉嘉薇(20080300)。2005年縣市長選舉選民投票決定之影響因素--臺北縣、臺中市、雲林縣以及高雄縣的分析。臺灣民主季刊，5(1)，1-43。new window  延伸查詢new window
39.林瓊珠(20080600)。議題、候選人評價、黨派意識--2006年臺北市長選舉投票行為研究。臺灣民主，5(2)，59-87。new window  延伸查詢new window
40.蕭怡靖、黃紀(20111100)。施政表現在不同層級地方選舉中的影響：2009年雲林縣縣長及鄉鎮市長選舉之分析。選舉研究，18(2)，59-86。new window  延伸查詢new window
41.黃信豪(20060300)。多層模型於選民投票行為研究的應用：以2004年總統選舉為例。東吳政治學報，22，161-201。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.Lim, Kah-yew、Wu, Huang-sheng、Yu, Eric Chen-hua(20101030)。Is All Politics Local? National Factors in Taiwan’s Local Elections。2010 International Conference on Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study: Local Elections and Local Governance，Soochow University (會議日期: 2010/10/30)。Taipei：Soochow University。  new window
2.Wlezien, C.、Soroka, S. N.(2010)。Federalism and Public Responsiveness to Policy。2010 Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association。Montreal。  new window
3.Bafumi, J.、Gelman, A.(2006)。Fitting Multilevel Models When Predictors and Group Effects Correlate。2006 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association。Chicago。  new window
研究報告
1.Achen, C. H.、Bartels, L. M.(2004)。Blind Retrospection Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks。Princeton University。  new window
2.Ashworth, S.、de Mesquita, E. B.(2013)。Disasters and Incumbent Electoral Fortunes: No Implications for Democratic Competence。Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago。  new window
3.黃秀端、朱雲漢(2010)。2009年至2012年「選舉與民主化調查」三年期研究規劃 (2)--民國九十九年直轄市市長選舉面訪案 (計畫編號：NSC 99-2420-H-031-002)。臺北：行政院國家科學委員會。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Peterson, Paul E.(1995)。The Price of Federalism。The Brookings Institution Press。  new window
2.Gelman, A.(2009)。Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do。New Jersey：Princeton University Press。  new window
3.Gill, J.(2008)。Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach。London：Chapman and Hall Press。  new window
4.Jackman, S.(2009)。Bayesian Analysis for the Social Science。New York：John Wiley and Sons Press。  new window
5.Kiewiet, D. R.(1983)。Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues。Chicago：University of Chicago Press。  new window
6.Soroka, Stuart、Wlezien, Christopher(2009)。Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion, and Policy。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
7.Gelman, Andrew、Carlin, John B.、Stern, Hal S.、Rubin, Donald B.(2004)。Bayesian Data Analysis。Chapman & Hall。  new window
8.Duch, Raymond M.、Stevenson, Randolph T.(2008)。The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
9.Lippmann, W.(1922)。Public Opinion。New York：The Free Press。  new window
10.Lippmann, Walter(1925)。The Phantom Public。New York, NY：Harcourt, Brace and Company。  new window
11.Key, Valdimer Orlando Jr.(1966)。The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960。Cambridge, MA：The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press。  new window
12.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。  new window
13.Dahl, Robert A.(1971)。Polyarchy: Participation & Opposition。New Haven, CT。  new window
14.Gelman, Andrew、Hill, Jennifer(2007)。Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models。Cambridge University Press。  new window
15.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。  new window
其他
1.天下雜誌(2010)。2010年25縣市幸福縣市大調查，http://www.cw.com.tw/survey/2010city/， 2012/05/04。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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