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題名:中國大陸危機管理學術研究現狀與發展趨勢-2006~2015
作者:周復之
作者(外文):CHOW, FU-CHIH
校院名稱:國防大學政治作戰學院
系所名稱:政治研究所
指導教授:蔡萬助
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2017
主題關鍵詞:危機管理書目計量學布萊德福定律洛卡定律學術生產力crisis managementbibliometricsBradford's LawLotka's Lawacademic productivity
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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全球正處在一個危機四伏的高風險環境,為此,「危機管理」乃是一個值得研究的議題。尤其是臺灣危機事件之最大根源極有可能是來自於中國大陸,因她尚屬一個高度人治控制的治理型態,因而,其內部學術研究社群的研究取向頗能反映其官方的調性。換言之,吾人若能掌握彼之危機管理核心期刊,高生產力作者及所屬機構以及研究主題,就有助於我們以省力原則來掌握研究趨勢,從而掌握先機與契機。本研究運用書目計量的非介入性方法,從中國期刊全文數據庫(Chinese Journal Full Text Database,簡稱CJFD),針對2006到2015年之近10年間所收錄有關「危機管理」研究主題之期刊文獻進行分析,藉以了解大陸地區危機管理學術之研究現況與特點,並透過驗證貝耶斯分析(Bayes Analysis)預測或然率的適用性,從而分析預測危機管理學的發展趨勢,藉此累積文獻計量學研究方法的案例。
經由研究分析,在研究主題部分有以下研究結果:1.論述有關「危機治理」的文章占據主導地位;2.「公共危機」占整體比重第二位,但實際相關研究文獻數量並不高,應與大陸民眾危機意識低落有關,公眾自我保護意識亟待加強;3.中國大陸正面臨著社會轉型,伴隨著而來的是社會管理中的突發性、群體性事件進入高發期,惟「社會危機管理」主題分布占比卻未能相對增加。在核心作者部分有以下研究結果:1.前10大核心作者共計有林景新等20位;2.中共軍方及武警學術單位對危機管理研究具相當研究能量,顯示對於危機管理至為重視;3. 經統計驗證,計算結果不符合洛卡定律。在合著率部分研究發現:1.大陸地區危機管理研究是呈現穩定成長狀態;2. 大陸地區危機管理學研究的學術研究團隊確定成形,合著型態將是未來的研究走向。在核心期刊部分有以下研究結果:1. 「前10大期刊」有《經營與管理》等10種期剘;2.以布萊福德定律驗證,大陸地區危機管理期刊文獻不具有集中於代表性期刊的特性。但是,研究發現略呈「1:20:200」的線性關係。最後,以貝氏定理推論,本研究推測,大陸地區危機管理研究之主題研究、高產出核心作者及前10大期刊,均將持續主導未來5年研究發展。
Since the world is currently situated in a high-risk environment with crisis lurking everywhere, crisis management has become a noteworthy issue. The source of the major potential crisis for Taiwan is usually from Mainland China. While China remains firmly in the grip of a tightly controlled administration type, a study on the trends of China’s domestic academic research community can reflect its official attitude. In other words, if we can get hold of the published core periodicals of China’s crisis management, its highly productive authors, the organizations where they belong to, and the subjects they explore, then we will be able to grab the opportunities in advance, should they occur. This study uses a non-intervening bibliometric approach to gather information from Chinese Journal Full Text Database, focusing on subjects of crisis management published from 2006 through 2015. The purpose is to understand China’s academic status quo in the field of crisis management and to further predict the trends of crisis management, thereby accumulating cases for bibliometric methodologies and the applicability of Bayes Analysis prediction and probability. In order to understand the research activities and current development in this field, this study will explore the collected data from the perspective of academic productivity.
In terms of research topic, the results show that first, discussions of crisis management has taken the leading position; second, public danger has been the second largest portion, but the related studies are lacking in this area, probably due to the lower level of the awareness of the Chinese public; third, while being in a transition period with higher rates of accidents and collective events in social management, the range of related topic on social crisis management has not been increasing accordingly. In terms of core authors, this study has the following results: first, there are 20 core authors including Lin Jingxin; second, the Chinese military and the armed police have contributed significantly to crisis management studies; third, statistics show that the calculation results do not conform to the Lotka’s Law. This study also finds that first, the crisis management in Mainland China has been growing steadily; second, an academic research team has been taken shape, but co-authorship will be the trend. In terms of core periodicals, this study finds that first, the top 10 periodicals include “Jingying yu Guanli”; second, according to Bradford’s Law, the literature of crisis management has concentrated in a few representative periodicals. But the study finds that it presents itself in a 1:20:200 linear relationship. Finally, this study predicts that the range of topic in the highly productive top 10 authors and periodicals will lead the trends in crisis management studies in Mainland China in the coming 5 years.
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中文期刊部分
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