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題名：台灣再生能源發展之研究
作者：周啟陽
作者(外文)：Chou, Chi-Yang James
校院名稱：國立交通大學
系所名稱：科技管理研究所
指導教授：林亭汝
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2014
主題關鍵詞：再生能源政策目標；再生能源技術；再生能源政策工具；決策實驗室評估法；層級分析法；敏感性分析；renewable energy policy goals；renewable energy technologies；renewable energy policy instruments；decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory；analytic hierarchy process；sensitivity analysis
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由於人口密集且缺乏自然資源，我國高度依賴進口能源，特別是化石燃料。為了降低對於進口化石燃料的依賴，我國勢必要發展本地的再生能源。我國的再生能源發展處於起步階段，尚未建立相關的綠能市場運作機制。本研究提出一個結合決策實驗室評估法(DEMATEL)、層級分析法(AHP)、敏感性分析的再生能源分析架構以克服複雜且具挑戰性的政策制訂過程。
本研究使用DEMATEL釐清再生能源政策中「政策目標」、「技術」、以及「政策工具」三個構面的關係及互動。研究結果顯示，「政策目標」構面是三者中最重要的，對於其他二個構面亦有顯著的直接影響。在政策制訂過程中，首先應該設定政策的目標。國際能源總署指出再生能源可以改善能源供給安全、環境保護、以及經濟發展(所謂的3E目標)。我國政府也在2008年永續能源政策綱領中宣佈再生能源的發展需要達成「3E目標」。
本研究探討不同的再生能源政策如何引導不同的再生能源技術。每個政策目標的重要用性以層級分析法(AHP)來進行評估，並由敏感性分析所建構的政策情境來調整每個政策目標的權重。結果顯示非抽蓄式水力、太陽能及風力是三種最為重要並同時可以達到「3E目標」的再生能源。
為了達到能源、環境、以及經濟目標，再生能源必須改善其效率、降低成本、並發展穩定的供電系統。然而卻有一些阻擾再生能源技術達成上述目標的障礙。如高額的建造成本、高度的技術要求、缺乏有關於發展再生能源科技好處的資訊或知識。有些國家透過適當的政策工具克服上述的難題。經由跨國政策工具比較，本研究建議我國採用「公共事業及大眾參與」、「再生能源配額制度」、以及「政府採購」等政策工具來發展我國的再生能源。
As a densely populated island with scarce natural resources, Taiwan is highly dependent on imported energy, particularly fossil fuels. In order to decrease dependence on imported fossil fuels, it is necessary to develop indigenous renewable energy. Taiwan’s development of renewable energy is in its initial stage, and related green market mechanisms have not been introduced. This study proposes a renewable energy policy analysis framework combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and sensitivity analysis to overcome the complicated and challenging policy setting process.
This study employs DEMATEL to clarify the relationship and interaction among policy goals, technologies, and policy instruments. According to the results, policy goals dimension is the most important one with direct influence on the other two dimensions. Therefore, the first step of renewable energy policy formation is to set the policy goals. The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that renewable energy contributes to improving energy security, environmental protection, and economic development (the three Es). Furthermore, the government announced the Sustainable Energy Policy Principles in 2008 that stated that Taiwan’s renewable energy policy should accomplish the 3E goals.
In order to achieve the renewable energy policy goals, this research examines how different policy goals lead to corresponding renewable energy technologies. The relative importance of each goal is evaluated by using AHP. The weight of each policy goal is adjusted separately to construct policy scenarios by the sensitivity analysis. According to the results, non-pumped storage hydropower, wind energy, and solar energy are the three technologies that could meet the three policy goals at the same time.
For renewable energy to contribute to the policy goals, it has to improve the efficiency of technologies, reduce the costs and develop stable systems. However, there are several barriers that discourage the technologies to achieve such goals. These obstacles include high project costs, high technology requirements, and lack of information or knowledge about the benefits and development of technologies. Several countries have overcome such difficulties through proper policy instruments. After a cross-national comparison of policy instruments, this study suggests “public ownership and participation”, “renewable portfolio standards (RPS)”, and “government procurement” to be employed for the development of Taiwan’s renewable energy.
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