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題名：創新機會成長對消費部落規模影響之研究
作者：林木花
作者(外文)：Lin, Mu Hua
校院名稱：國立政治大學
系所名稱：資訊管理學系
指導教授：林我聰
洪朝富
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2015
主題關鍵詞：消費部落；網路早期採用者；創意使用價值；創新擴散模型；科技接受模型；Consumer tribes；The early adopters in Internet；Innovative use value；Innovative diffusion model；Technology acceptance model
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新商品上市後造成流行的機率低於25%（Cooper & Kleinschmidt, 1990；Cooper, 2011），但Rogers（唐錦超，民95）的創新擴散模型實驗卻提出若早期採用者接受新商品並分享他們的創意使用價值，則能影響早期消費大眾較快且容易接受新商品且在市場上誘發流行。因此本研究的動機是希望透過資訊技術，首先確認早期採用者存在於網路族群之中，再萃取被網際網路大量資料包圍的網路早期採用者與其在新商品的創意使用價值資料，希望能夠藉此影響早期消費大眾的接受意願，並跨越他們之間的鴻溝(Moore, 1991)。
本研究目的是探討即使網路早期採用者與早期消費大眾兩者之間無實體的社會關係網絡時，網路早期採用者所創造的新商品創意使用價值，還是能夠影響早期大眾消費者購買的意願，以形成一種新型創新擴散模式。實作上是將網路早期採用者的創意使用價值，設計成廣告宣傳單直接刺激早期消費大眾，觀察新商品是否被他們接受。經過購買意願問卷回收、整理和分析消費者族群與接受程度，證實網路早期採用者的創意使用價值確實能引起早期消費大眾往高購買意願的族群移動。
再者，企業為了能夠在市場生存競爭獲勝，必須比其他同業更早挖掘出稀少且有價值的資訊幫助新商品跨越鴻溝，協助企業獲得更多的利益。雖然本研究提出的新型創新擴散模式，能提高早期消費大眾接受新商品的意願，但是在人機互動的資料分析過程中，耗費過多人力。因此本研究再根據文字探勘的IDF概念提出ICF演算法，藉以縮小決策範圍並且得到效率前緣的機會點，依然能在眾多的資料中也萃取出網路早期採用者的微弱創意使用價值，同時降低人工作業、專家主觀解讀和決策制定的複雜度的問題，得到高品質的效率方案。
The chance for a new product to be prevalent is lower than 25% (Cooper & Kleinschmidt, 1990; Cooper, 2011). However, in Rogers’ innovative diffusion model (Rogers, 2003), he proposed that if early adopters accepted new products and shared their innovative use value with others, the early majority may accept the new products quickly and readily. First of all, this study intends to use information technology to make sure that the early adopters exist on the Internet world. Then the author tries to extract innovative use information employed by the early adopters who are surrounded by huge amount of information. Hopefully, the early majority can be affected by such measures. That is, in the process of consuming merchandise, consumers tend to build mutual affections, value, and psychological sensation. This may enable the new products to cross over the chasm between the early adopters and early majority (Moore, 1991; 1995).
The purpose of this study is to explore the innovative use value created by early adopters existing on the Internet world. It is to affect the purchasing intention of the early majority when there is no social relationship network between early adopters and early majority so as to build a new innovative diffusion model. In order to achieve this, the innovative use value created in the Internet by the early adopters was designed as commercial fliers to directly stimulate the early majority. It is used to observe whether new products are accepted by the early majority. The experimental results proved that this measurement surely can move the early majority toward groups with high intention.
Moreover, talking about the continuing existence of a business, one needs to find out the rare and valuable information in the early stage in order to make the new products to cross over the chasm. The new innovative diffusion proposed by this study is able to extract the innovative use value created by the early adopters in Internet. And, for the purpose of reducing manpower and contracting the weak innovative information created by the early adopters, this study was conducted by using ICF algorithm which is derived from IDF concept existing in the text mining. It is to narrow the range of policy making, gain the chance point from the effect frontier, improve the quality and efficiency when making a decision, and reduce subjective judgement made by experts, which may help decision makers to make an effective policy based on their advantage and preference, and in the end, to reduce the complexity of making a policy.
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