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題名：中國大陸崛起對當前國際體系的衝擊
書刊名：遠景基金會季刊
作者：陳重成／唐欣偉 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chen, Chung-cheng／Tang, Hsin-wei
出版日期：2005
卷期：6:4
頁次：頁101-137
主題關鍵詞：國內生產毛額；權力移轉；美國；中國大陸；最小獲勝聯盟；GDP；Power transition；U.S.；PRC；Minimum winning；Coalition；MWC
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(13) 博士論文(3) 專書(2) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:13
  • 共同引用共同引用:118
  • 點閱點閱:38
本文試圖以世界銀行提供的國內生產毛額數據作為測量一國國力之指標，並依各國過去的經濟成長率，推估至2025年時，世界與亞洲體系內各主要強權之相對國力的可能消長。由於中國大陸的經濟成長速度遠超過其他強權，因此，未來其國際地位將持續提升，甚至可能趕上美國。根據新現實主義的論述，當兩個主要強國的權力達到均衡時，將有利於維持國際體系的和平與穩定。然而，「權力移轉理論」卻聲稱當後進的挑戰者趕上既有霸權時，衝突爆發的可能性將大幅上升，此際能否避免衝突，得視新興強權是否願意接受既有的國際秩序而定。依此而論，美國可否成功地協助中國大陸融入現有的國際社會，並將其納入形塑國際秩序的「最小獲勝聯盟」，將是維繫和平的關鍵。
Based on World Bank's World Development Indicators and previous economic growth rates, the authors estimate the relative rise and fall of all major powers in the global and Asian international systems from now to 2025. Since the PRC grows faster than any other ones, it will play a more important role in the international system, and probably overtake the United States. Neo-realists believe that the balance of power between two major powers can maintain peace and stability, but the power transition theorists argue that when a rising challenger reaches power parity with the original dominant power, a war between them is likely. Conflict can be avoided if the challenger accepts the international order today. Therefore, if the U.S. successfully helps China to become a member of the existing international society and the “minimum winning coalition” will be the key to peace.
期刊論文
1.Lind, Jennifer M.(2004)。Pacifism or Passing the Buck? Testing Theories of Japanese Security Policy。International Security，29(1)，92-121。  new window
2.Mansfield, Edward D.、Snyder, Jack L.(1995)。Democratization and War。Foreign Affairs，74(3)，79-97。  new window
3.Huntington, Samuel Phillips(2004)。The Hispanic Challenge。Foreign Policy，141，30-45。  new window
4.吳玉山(20000700)。臺灣總統大選對於兩岸關係產生的影響：選票極大化模式與戰略三角途徑。遠景季刊，1(3)，1-33。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.楊永明(19991200)。東協區域論壇：亞太安全之政府間多邊對話機制。政治科學論叢，11，145-179。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.楊永明(19980600)。美日安保與亞太安全。政治科學論叢，9，275-304。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.蕭全政(20010600)。東亞「區域主義」的發展與臺灣的角色。政治科學論叢，14，201-222。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Huntington, Samuel P.(1999)。The Lonely Superpower。Foreign Affairs，78(2)，35-49。  new window
9.Chan, Steven(1997)。In Search of the Democratic Peace: Problems and Promise。Mershon International Studies Review，41，59-91。  new window
10.Bairoch, Paul(1982)。International Industrialization Levels from 1750 to 1980。Journal of European Economic History，11(2)，269-333。  new window
圖書
1.胡鞍鋼(2002)。中國戰略構想。杭州：浙江人民出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.Cline, Ray S.(1980)。World Power Trends and U.S. Foreign Policy for The 1983s。Boulder, CO：Westview。  new window
3.Friedman, George、LeBard, Meredith(1991)。The Coming War with Japan。New York：St. Martin's Press。  new window
4.Smil, Vaclav(2004)。China's Past, China's Future - Energy, Food, Environment。New York, NY：Routledge Curzon。  new window
5.Thurow, L.(1992)。Head to Head: The Coming Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe, and America。New York, NY：William Morrow and Company, Inc.。  new window
6.Kennedy, Paul(1987)。The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000。New York：Vintage Books：Random House。  new window
7.Tammen, Ronald L.、Kugler, Jacek、Lemke, Douglas、Stam, Allan C. III、Abdollahian, Mark A.、Alsharabati, Carole、Efird, Brian、Organski, Abramo Fimo Kenneth(2000)。Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century。Chatham House Publishers of Seven Bridges Press。  new window
8.Nye, Joseph S. Jr.(2003)。The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go it Alone。New York：Oxford University Press。  new window
9.李英明(20040000)。國際關係理論的啟蒙與反思。臺北市：揚智文化事業股份有限公司。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Mearsheimer, John J.、Alterman, G.(2001)。The Tragedy of Great Power Politics。W. W. Norton & Company。  new window
11.Organski, A. F. Kenneth、Kugler, Jacek(1980)。The War Ledger。University of Chicago Press。  new window
12.明居正(1992)。國際政治體系之變遷。國際政治體系之變遷。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
13.Campbell, Chareles S.(1974)。From Revolution to Rapprochement: The United States and Great Britain, 1783-1900。From Revolution to Rapprochement: The United States and Great Britain, 1783-1900。New York, NY。  new window
14.Cline, Ray S.(1994)。The Power of Nations in the 1990s。The Power of Nations in the 1990s。Lanham, MD。  new window
15.Combs, Jerald A.(1983)。American Diplomatic History - Two Centuries of Changing Interpretations。American Diplomatic History - Two Centuries of Changing Interpretations。Berkeley。  new window
16.Kennedy, Paul(1994)。Preparing for the Twenty-first Century。Preparing for the Twenty-first Century。New York, NY。  new window
17.Rasler, Karen A.、Thompson, William R.(1994)。The Great Power and Global Struggle 1490-1990。The Great Power and Global Struggle 1490-1990。Kentucky, U.S.。  new window
18.Haight, T. R.(2004)。The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy。The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy。New York, NY。  new window
19.Stoll, Richard J.、Ward, Michael D.(1989)。Power in World Politics。Power in World Politics。Boulder, CO/ London, UK。  new window
20.Kugler, Jacek、Arbetman, Marina(1989)。Choosing among Measures of Power。Power in World Politics。Boulder, CO/ London, UK。  new window
21.Wallerstein, Immanuel(1996)。The Global Possibilities。The Age of Transition - Trajectory of the World-system, 1945-2025。London, UK。  new window
其他
1.CIA(2005)。The World Factbook，0。  new window
2.Crane, Keith，Cliff, Roger，Medeiros, Evan，Mulvenon, James，Overholt, William(2005)。Modernizing China's Military - Opportunities and Constraints，Santa Monica, CA。  new window
3.National Intelligence Council(2004)。Mapping the Global Future，0。  new window
4.Wilson, Dominic，Purushothaman, Roopa(2003)。Global Economics Paper No. 99: Dreaming with the BRICs: the Path to 2050，New York, NY。  new window
 
 
 
 
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