本研究採用行政院主計處1987 至2001 年各縣市男女年齡組別人力資源的「長期追蹤資料」，探討台灣失業率的長期演變情勢及惡化原因。採用「雙因子固定效果估計法」進行估計，主要結果有二：一、縣市失業率差異確實存在，且與縣市固定效果差異呈現同向變動，因此，各縣市之失業率及其間的長期差異，有相當程度是因各縣市的區域固定特性所造成；二、各縣市失業率與外勞引進量、基本工資水準和勞基法執行範圍等總體性政策呈高度正相關。由於總體經濟蕭條或繁榮將導致各區域失業率呈全國性的同步升降，綜合這些研究結果顯示，區域間「均衡失業率」 (自然失業率) 的差異乃是造成各地區整體失業率差異的主因。所以，除了全國性的總體經濟政策外，我們尚應採行一套隨區域特性變化的區域經濟成長政策，才能有效降低失業率。

Panels of regional unemployment data across different demographic groups are examined to explore the sources of the deterioration in employment in Taiwan during the past decade. The application of the two-factor fixed-effects estimation approach leads to two main findings. First, wide regional unemployment differentials do exist and appear as the differences in fixed effects. Second, regional unemployment rates are found to be highly correlated with the macroeconomic policies of the importation of foreign workers, the level of the minimum wage, and the extent of the enforcement of the Labor Standards Law. As area unemployment rates rise or fall nationwide during a macroeconomic recession or expansion, these findings together imply that differences in the area equilibrium unemployment rate (natural unemployment rate) would dominate in the regional disparities of unemployment. Therefore, in addition to the demographic-specific and nationwide macroeconomic policies, it is necessary to adopt a set of regionally diversified policies that are aimed at promoting both regional economic growth and labor market flexibility.