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題名：別訪問我！我對政治沒興趣：主題效應與TEDS高估投票率之研究
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：蔡奇霖 引用關係
作者(外文)：Tsai, Chi-lin
出版日期：2010
卷期：17:2
頁次：頁135-175
主題關鍵詞：主題效應；高估投票率；過度代表；過度回報；Topic effect；Turnout overestimate；Over-representative；Over-report
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(1) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:58
  • 點閱點閱:137
本文摘要 「主題效應」(topic effect)指出，對調查主題越感興趣的人越可能接受訪問，所以和主題有關的估計值容易被誇大。台灣選舉與民主化調查(TEDS)是一個以政治及選舉為主題的訪問，而投票與否這個問項又和這些主題息息相關，因此主題效應很可能是TEDS高估投票率的一個原因。本文用兩個假設來檢驗這個想法，首先在總體層次的分析上，本文發現TEDS高估投票率的情況比台灣社會變遷基本調查(TSCS)的更嚴重。由於兩個調查在主題外有許多相似性，這個結果表示兩者在投票率估計值上的差異很可能是主題效應所致。其次在個體層次的分析上，本文也發現在TEDS的成功樣本裡高投票意願者比低投票意願者更可能接受TEDS的訪問，符合主題效應的論述。整體來說，總體和個體層次的分析都支持本文的看法。不過，本文的結論是立基在特定前提之上，未來TEDS應蒐集更多資料來進一步確認及處理主題效應和高估投票率的問題。
Abstract Literature of “topic effect” suggests that people who are interested in the survey topic are more willing to participate in the interview, so the estimates of the survey items that are associated with the topic tend to be exaggerated. Given that politics and election are the focal points of Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), this paper explores whether the topic effect is one of the major causes to overestimate turnout rates in TEDS. The finding of the aggregate-level analysis shows that the turnout overestimate in TEDS is more serious than that in Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS). Since two survey projects have a lot in common except topics, their difference in turnout estimates may result from the topic effect. The individual-level analysis also indicates that the correlation between respondents’ propensity to vote and their propensity to participate in TEDS is positive, which conforms to the theoretical expectation of topic effect. Generally speaking, the hypotheses are confirmed by both analyses. However, the conclusions are based on some untested assumptions; therefore future TEDS could use special survey design to further check and cope with the topic effect and turnout overestimate.
期刊論文
1.Silver, Brian D.、Anderson, Barbara A.、Abramson, Paul R.(1986)。Who Overreports Voting?。American Political Science Review，80(2)，613-624。  new window
2.Groves, Robert M.(2006)。Nonresponse rates and nonresponse bias in household surveys。Public Opinion Quarterly，70(5)，646-675。  new window
3.謝邦昌、江志民(19980400)。民意測驗中的社經發展指標、人口特性與投票行為之研究。民意研究季刊，204，26-45。  延伸查詢new window
4.Brady, Henry E.、Verba, Sidney、Schlozman, Kay Lehman(1995)。Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation。The American Political Science Review，89(2)，271-294。  new window
5.陳敦源(20000400)。人為何投票？--理性選擇觀點的緣起與發展。民意研究季刊，212，31-64。  延伸查詢new window
6.吳俊德、陳永福(20051200)。投票與不投票的抉擇--2004年總統大選與公民投票的探索性研究。臺灣民主季刊，2(4)，67-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.洪永泰(20031100)。原始樣本、替代樣本、與追蹤樣本的比較：「2001年臺灣選舉與民主化調查研究」訪問失敗問題的探討。選舉研究，10(2)，37-58。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.蔡佳泓(20011100)。Why Do Taiwanese Vote?。選舉研究，8(2)，125-158。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.楊孟麗(20031100)。投票意願與經濟不景氣：臺灣的情形。選舉研究，10(2)，159-191。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.鄭夙芬(20060500)。Survey Participation in Taiwan: Evidence from the ESC Surveys。選舉研究，13(1)，163-195。new window  new window
11.Belli, Robert F., Sean E. Moore, and John VanHoewyk.(2006)。“An Experimental Comparison of Question Forms Used to Reduce Vote Overreporting.”。Electoral Studies，25(4)，751-759。  new window
12.Belli, Robert F.、Traugott, Michael W.、Young, Margaret、McGonagle, Katherine A.(1999)。Reducing Vote Over-reporting in Surveys: Social Desirability, Memory Failure, and Source Monitoring。Public Opinion Quarterly，63(1)，90-108。  new window
13.Bernstein, Robert, Anita Chadha, and Robert Montjoy.(2001)。“Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters.”。Public Opinion Quarterly，65(1)，22-44。  new window
14.Burden, Barry C.(2000)。“Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies.”。Political Analysis，8(4)，389-398。  new window
15.Fullerton, Anderw S., Jeffrey Dixon, and Casey Borch.(2007)。“Bringing Registration into Models of Vote Overreporting.”。Public Opinion Quarterly，71(4)，649-660。  new window
16.Groves, Robert M., Robert B. Cialdini, and Mick P. Couper.(1992)。“Understanding the Decision to Participate in a Survey.”。Public Opinion Quarterly，56(4)，475-495。  new window
17.Groves, Robert M., Mick P. Couper, Stanley Presser, Eleanor Singer, Roger Tourangeau,Giorgina P. Acosta, and Lindsay Nelson.(2006)。“Experiments in Producing Nonresponse Bias.”。Public Opinion Quarterly，70(5)，720-736。  new window
18.McDonald, Michael P.(2003)。“On the Overreport Bias of the National Election Study Turnout Rate.”。Political Analysis，11(2)，180-186。  new window
19.McDonald, Michael P.(2007)。“The True Electorate: A Cross-Validation of Voter Registration Files and Election Survey Demographics.”。Public Opinion Quarterly，71(4)，588-602。  new window
20.Olson, Kristen.(2006)。“Survey Participation, Nonresponse Bias, Measurement Error Bias, and Total Bias.”。Public Opinion Quarterly，70(5)，737-758。  new window
21.Peytchev, Andy, Rodney K. Baxter, and Lisa R. Carley-Baxter.(2009)。“Not All Survey Effort is Equal: Reduction of Nonresponse Bias and Nonresponse Error.”。Public Opinion Quarterly，73(4)，785-806。  new window
22.Stocke, Volker.(2007)。“Response Privacy and Elapsed Time since Election Day as Determinants for Vote Overreporting.”。International Journal of Public Opinion Research，19(2)，237-246。  new window
23.Stocke, Volker, and Tobias Stark.(2007)。“Political Involvement and Memory Failure as Interdependent Determinants of Vote Overreporting.”。Applied Cognitive Psychology，21(2)，239-257。  new window
24.Voogt, Robert J.J., and Willem E. Saris.(2003)。“To Participate or Not to Participate: The Link between Survey Participation, Electoral Participation, and Political Interest.”。Political Analysis，11(2)，164-179。  new window
25.Wu, Chung-li.(2006)。“Vote Misreporting and Survey Context: The Taiwan Case.”。Issues & Studies，42(4)，223-239。  new window
會議論文
1.Merkle, Daniel, Murray Edelman, Kathy Dykeman, and Chris Brogan.(1998)。“An Experimental Study of Ways to Increase Exit Poll Response Rates and Reduce Survey Error.”。St. Louis,Missouri。  new window
2.Tang, Ge, Yeh-diing Wang, and Rene Bautista.(2009)。“A Comparison Study of Exit Poll Methodologies between Taiwan and the U.S.”。Hollywood, Florida。  new window
圖書
1.王濟川、郭志剛(2003)。Logistic迴歸模型--方法及應用。臺北：五南圖書出版有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.Brehm, John(1993)。The Phantom Respondents-Opinion Surveys and Political Representation。Ann Arbor, Michigan：The University of Michigan Press。  new window
3.王保進(2006)。英文視窗版SPSS與行為科學研究。臺北市：心理出版社股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
4.Wolfinger, Raymond E.、Rosenstone, Steven J.(1980)。Who Votes?。New Haven, Connecticut：Yale University Press。  new window
5.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
6.American Association for Public Opinion Research.(2008)。Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys (5th ed.)。Lenexa, KS。  new window
7.Evans, Jocelyn A. J.(2004)。Voters & Voting: An Introduction。SAGE publications Ltd.。  new window
8.Groves, Robert M., Floyd J. Fowler, Jr., Mick P. Couper, James M. Lepkowski, Eleanor Singer,and Roger Tourangeau.(2004)。Survey Methodology。Hoboken, NJ。  new window
9.Hamilton, Lawrence C.(2004)。Statistics with Stata: Updated for Version 8。Belmont, CA。  new window
10.Health, Anthony, and Bridget Taylor.(1999)。“New Sources of Abstention.”。Critical Elections。London。  new window
 
 
 
 
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