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題名:單一政黨威權政體間和平肇因之商榷
書刊名:問題與研究
作者:黎寶文 引用關係
作者(外文):Li, Pao-wen
出版日期:2011
卷期:50:3
頁次:頁75-103
主題關鍵詞:威權政體獨裁和平民主和平國內結構政體類型Authoritarian regimeDictatorial peaceDemocratic peaceDomestic structureRegime type
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:28
  • 點閱點閱:41
當代民主和平研究已不再局限於民主政體間的戰爭機率,有些學者已經開始轉向研究威權政體間的戰爭機率。這樣的研究發展,有利於促進國際政治和比較政府兩個次領域的對話,而本文亦嘗試將威權政體分類相關的比較政治研究,帶入國際政治場域進行分析。2002年Mark Peceny、Caroline C. Beer和Shannon Sanchez-Terry提出「獨裁政體和平假說」(dictatorial peace),主張威權政體間亦存在低武裝衝突機率。而且,如果再將威權政體進一步分類,則僅有單一政黨政體間存有較低的武裝衝突機率,Peceny等認為單一政黨政體間的共享意識形態,亦即馬列主義,是導致較低武裝衝突機率的原因。 本文則認為,Peceny等以共享意識形態作為因果機制之結論過於草率,畢竟共產主義式政黨國家政體並不是單一政黨政體的唯一形式。因此,本文透過比較Barbara Geddes、Juan Linz和Alfred Stepan對於威權政體分類之研究,重新對單一政黨政體進行定義,並納入意識形態作為分類標準。經過對Peceny等的資料庫重新進行編碼,並以其原有統計方法檢證後,本文發現,Peceny等之共享意識形態結論無法成立,但是,威權政體間的較低武裝程度,仍然為統計上顯著之現象,只是其因果機制仍待進一步分析。
When analyzing the relationship between regime type and the possibility of militarized interstate conflict, an interdisciplinary dialogue between the fields of comparative politics and international relations is vitally demanded, especially when stepping into the further area of democratic peace, “dictatorial peace.” In 2002, Mark Peceny, Caroline Beer, and Shannon Sanchez-Terry concluded that a lower conflict possibility does exist among non-democratic regimes. Moreover, after classifying non-democracies into three categories, they claimed that a shared ideology among socialist regimes is the main cause for single-party dyads to have a lower opportunity of military conflict. However, since the communist party-state system is not the only form in the single party category, it is too hasty to make a conclusion attributing to the causal relationship based on the shared value and ideology. Based on the hypothesis of the ideological cause by Peceny et al., this article would like to test their hypothesis by a further classification. By comparing the typologies of Barbara Geddes, Juan Linz, and Alfred Stepan, it is reasonable to take ideology as an indicator for classifying non-democracies, which Peceny et al. failed to take into consideration. After applying the original research design and method used by Peceny et al., our statistical result does not support their ideological hypothesis about single-party regimes. However, our result also reconfirms the statistical significance of the lower conflict possibility among single-party regimes, which needs future explorations to find out the causal mechanism.
期刊論文
1.朱雪瑛(20050300)。「民主和平論」之分析與美國「推廣民主」戰略。臺灣民主,2(1),123-158。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Finnemore, M.、Sikkink, K.(1996)。Norms, Culture, and World Politics: Insights from Sociology's Institutionalism。International Organization,50(2),325-347。  new window
3.楊永明(20040900)。臺灣民主化與臺灣安全保障。臺灣民主,1(3),1-23。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Haas, Peter M.(1992)。Introduction: Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination。International Organization,46(1),1-35。  new window
5.Singer, John David(1961)。The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations。World Politics,14(1),77-92。  new window
6.De Mesquita, Bruce Bueno、Morrow, James D.、Siverson, Randolph M.、Smith, Alastair(1999)。An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace。American Political Science Review,93(4),791-807。  new window
7.Beck, Nathaniel、Katz, Jonathan N.、Tucker, Richard(1998)。Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable。American Journal of Political Science,42(4),1260-1288。  new window
8.李酉潭、張孝評(20040700)。民主化與臺海和平之分析。問題與研究,43(4),1-34。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Acharya, Amitav(2004)。How Ideas Spread: Whose Norms Matter? Norm Localization and Instituional Change in Asian Regionalism。International Organization,58(2),239-275。  new window
10.Milner, Helen V.(1998)。Rationalizing Politics: The Emerging Synthesis of International, American, and Comparative Politics。International Organization,52(4),759-786。  new window
11.Peceny, Mark、Beer, Caroline C.、Sanchez-Terry, Shannon(2002)。Dictatorial Peace?。The American Political Science Review,96(1),15-26。  new window
12.徐斯勤(2004)。民主國家在世界大戰後重建和平之政策的比較分析。臺灣民主季刊,1(3),231-237。  延伸查詢new window
13.張亞中(2007)。開放和平論:追求永久和平的另一個選擇。問題與研究,46(2),1-21。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Andreski, Stanislav(1980)。On the peaceful disposition of military dictatorships。Journal of Strategic Studies,3(3),3-10。  new window
15.Gandhi, Jennifer、Lust-Okar, Ellen(2009)。Elections Under Authoritarianism。Annual Review of Political Science,12(1),403-422。  new window
16.Gochman, Charles(1991)。Interstate metrics: conceptualizing, operationalizing, and measuring the geographic proximity of states since the Congress of Vienna。International Interactions,17(1),93-112。  new window
17.Rosato, Sebastian(2003)。The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory。American Political Science Review,97(4),585-602。  new window
圖書
1.Levitsky, Stephen、Way, Lucan(2010)。Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War。Cambridge University Press。  new window
2.Geddes, Barbara、Geddes, B.(2003)。Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics。Ann Arbor, MI:University of Michigan Press。  new window
3.Doyle, Michael W.(1997)。Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism, and Socialism。New York, NY:W W Norton & Co Inc。  new window
4.Reiter, Dan、Stam, Allan C.(2002)。Democracies at War。Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press。  new window
5.Dahl, Robert A.(1971)。Polyarchy: Participation & Opposition。New Haven, CT。  new window
6.Finnemore, Martha(2003)。The Purpose of Intervention: Changing Beliefs about the Use of Force。Cornell University Press。  new window
7.Linz, Juan José、Stepan, Alfred C.(1996)。Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe。The Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
8.林佳龍、邱澤奇(1999)。兩岸黨國體制與民主發展。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
9.Dahl, Robert(2000)。On democracy。New Haven。  new window
10.Jackson, Robert H.、Rosberg, Carl G.(1982)。Personal rule in black Africa: prince, autocrat, prophet, tyrant。Berkeley。  new window
11.Kant, Immanuel(2005)。Perpetual Peace。New York:Cosimo, Inc.。  new window
12.Mearsheimer, John J.、Walt, Stephen M.(2008)。The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy。London。  new window
13.Russett, Bruce M.(1995)。Grasping the democratic peace: Principles for a post-Cold War world。Princeton。  new window
14.Stohl, Michael、Lopez, George A.(1986)。Government Violence and Repression: An Agenda for Research。New York。  new window
其他
1.Beer, Caroline。Data for ‘Dictatorial Peace?,http://www.uvm.edu/~cbeer/。  new window
2.Geddes, Barbara(1999)。Authoritarian breakdown: Empirical test of a game theoretic argument,Atlanta。  new window
3.Maoz, Zeev。Dyadic MID Data (Version 2.0),http://psfaculty.ucdavis.edu/zmaoz/dyadmid.html。  new window
4.Marshall, Monty G.(1800)。Polity IV Project,http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm。  new window
圖書論文
1.宋學文(2001)。The Implications of Cross-Level Analysis on International Relations Theory。政治分析的層次。臺北:韋伯。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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