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題名:二次大戰後芬蘭安全戰略之研究—國家因應強鄰威脅之分析
作者:藍柏青
作者(外文):Po-Ching Lan
校院名稱:東吳大學
系所名稱:政治學系
指導教授:羅致政
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2011
主題關鍵詞:芬蘭化扈從平衡中立約束FinlandizationBandwagonBalanceNeutralityBinding
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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冷戰期間,芬蘭為前蘇聯周邊國家唯一倖免共產主義赤化,而維持民主體制之異例,論者名之為「芬蘭化」。針對芬蘭此一異例,既有研究偏向靜態且單一變項之分析,並與當代國際政治理論脫節。為跨越既有理論與實證研究兩者間的鴻溝,並釐清「芬蘭化」的意涵,本論文爰依現實主義理論典範,著重於權力平衡一系列的理論脈絡,以「威脅平衡理論」為理論途徑,針對其核心概念內涵予以補充修正,賦予其操作化定義;明確以「受威脅國所認知的強鄰威脅層次」為自變項,以「國際體系環境的緊張程度」為中介變項,以「受威脅國因應強鄰威脅之安全戰略」為依變項,建構出四項研究假說。
具體而言,本研究盼解釋以下研究問題:一、理論建構層面上,國家因應強鄰威脅所採取之安全戰略,由何因素決定?何種分析層次較為適當?二、個案研究層面上,如以「芬蘭化」代表芬蘭的安全戰略,則「芬蘭化」戰略的實際內涵為何?「芬蘭化」是否僅為單一邏輯的戰略?三、政策意涵層面上,芬蘭因應俄羅斯威脅的安全戰略,對我國有何戰略啟示?有無類推適用性?
經本論文研究檢驗,前開四項研究假說確實能解釋二戰後芬蘭針對前蘇聯暨俄羅斯之威脅,所採取「扈從」、「中立」、「約束」、「平衡」之四項安全戰略。
In the postwar aftermath, Finland was the only one among those states bordering the former Soviet Union, escaping the fate of annexation while maintaining it own democratic system. This anomaly was named “Finlandization”. Most of current literature on Finlandization adopt static and single-variable approaches, and are disconnected from debates between contemporary international theories. To bridge this gap between theorization and empirical studies, this research dwells on the paradigm of realism, adopting the ‘Balance of Threat’ theory as the research approach to construct four hypotheses, in order to explain the postwar evolution of Finnish security strategies, namely bandwagon, neutrality, binding, and balancing.
In these hypotheses, the independent variable is defined as “the perceived level of threat posed by the strong neighboring state”, the intervening variable as “the extent of tension in the international system”, and the dependent variable as “security strategies adopted by the threatened state”. After thorough examination of the Finnish case, these hypotheses are validated.
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王玉葉。2000。〈歐洲聯盟之輔助原則〉。《歐美研究》30,2:1-30。new window
王正偉。2005。《911 事件後美國安全政策的轉變—動力、內容與方向》。東吳大學政治學系碩士論文。
王定士。2001。〈蘇聯解體後俄羅斯對外政策路線的克里姆林宮政治因素〉。《俄羅斯學報》創刊號:61-96。new window
王定士。2005。〈普欽對外政策走向對台海安全之戰略意涵〉。《俄羅斯學報》4 : 29-49。
王定士。2010。〈導讀:借鏡蘇聯,鑑照中國〉。余杰著《泥族巨人—從蘇聯解體看中國的未來》: 3-8。台北:允晨文化。
王孟倫。2011。(因應中國可能動盪,學者籲全球布局)。《自由時報》2011/2/27:A 14。
王崑義。2010a。〈芬蘭化的台灣—馬英九正把台灣變成一個「扈從國家」〉。http://blog.sina.com.tw/wang8889999/article.php?pbgid=22448&entryid=593402。2010/11/18。
王崑義。2010b。〈非傳統安全與台灣軍事戰略的變革〉。《台灣國際研究季刊》 6,2:1-43。
尹慶耀。1994。《蘇維埃帝國的消亡》。台北:五南。
包淳亮。2004。〈共黨國家二元領導體制之研究-蘇聯與中共個案分析〉。國立政治大學東亞研究所博士論文。new window
朱奕嵐。2003。〈國家面臨外在危險的策略反應-以威尼斯、拿破崙、俾斯麥時期為例〉。東吳大學政治學系博士論文。
朱奕嵐。2004。〈死生之地、存亡之道―國家行為者的策略反應〉。《東吳政治學報》18:111-155。
江流、陳之驊主編。1994。《蘇聯演變的歷史思考》。北京:中國社會科學出版社。
江啟臣。2009。《國際組織與全球治理概論》。台北:五南。
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