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題名：中共對臺政策之理性與組織過程分析：以2002~2010年的政策變化為例
書刊名：中國大陸研究
作者：游智偉／陳政一
作者(外文)：Yu, Chih-wei／Chen, Cheng-i
出版日期：2011
卷期：54:4
頁次：頁57-88
主題關鍵詞：國家利益；有限理性；中共對臺政策；兩岸關係；National interests；Bounded rationality；PRC's Taiwan policy；Cross-Strait relations
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(2) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:99
  • 點閱點閱:81
摘要 近年中共對臺政策不再以文攻武嚇為主，反以軟性交流或讓步為政策主 軸，其於2009 年不阻擋臺灣以「中華臺北」名義參與世界衛生大會更被視 為兩岸關係的里程碑，然問題在於中共為何讓步？為何放寬其對「一個中 國」原則的解釋？ 本文認為上述變化可歸結於中共在有限理性下重新考量國家統一和經濟 發展的重要性所致，藉和平發展的提出重構國家發展路徑，將發展經濟視為 國家最高利益，而和平發展則為國家統一的先期工作，並藉反分裂國家法將 對臺政策重心從促統轉向反獨，目標從改變現狀轉為維持現狀，但這些變化 卻影響中共各部門執行層級原奉行的標準作業程序，使其臺辦系統承受其他 系統的壓力，而在2008 年下半年後不斷拋出政治議題，但這樣的情景在 2010 年底後消失，在領導人有限理性的意志下，「穩中求進」成為當前大陸 對臺政策主要的綱領依據。
Abstract Recently, it seemed that PRC’s Taiwan policy had been changed, characterized by Taiwan’s successful participation in the World Health Assembly (WHA) in 2009. The changes can be described by “bounded rationality,” as PRC reconsidered the priority of national interests amongst state unification and economic development through peaceful means. With the formulation of the “Anti-Secession Law (ASL),” the focus and purpose of PRC’s Taiwan Policy had been transformed from “promoting unification” and “changing Status Quo” to “opposing independence” and “maintaining Status Quo.” Therefore, the most significant meaning in the ASL was that the “One China Principle” had been loosened. The standard operation process held by each governmental branch had also been influenced by these changes, causing the Taiwan Affairs Office System (TAOS) to experience added pressure , especially in foreign affairs and commerce in the WHA and ECFA cases. TAOS, as a result of such, had proposed and pressed Taiwan to engage in political issues in the second half of 2008. However, the circumstance disappeared at the end of 2010 when China’s leaders had re-confirmed the “proactive” principle (wen-jung-chiou-jin) as the basic outline of PCR’s Taiwan policy.
期刊論文
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6.趙建民、許志嘉(20090100)。中共第四代領導集體的「和諧世界觀」：理論與意涵。遠景基金會季刊，10(1)，1-44。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Huntington, Samuel(1997)。The Erosion of American National Interest。Foreign Affairs，76(5)，28-49。  new window
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11.徐博東(2005)。大陸調整對臺政策後的主動與扁當局的困境。臺聲，7，10-11。  延伸查詢new window
12.寇健文、梁書媛(2008)。中共領導人權力消長在黨報新聞照片上的呈現。政治科學論叢，38，35-70。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Dyson, Stephen B.(2006)。Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blair's Iraq Decisions。Foreign Policy Analysis，2(3)，289-306。  new window
圖書
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4.Kegley, Charles W.、Wittkopf, Eugene R.(2009)。World Politics: Trend and Transformation。Wadsworth Press。  new window
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7.Brown, Chris(2001)。Understanding International Relations。Palgrave。  new window
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10.Jackson, Robert、Sorenson, Georg(2007)。Introduction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches。Oxford。  new window
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13.Steinbruner, John(1974)。The Cybernetic Theory of Decision。Princeton, N.J.：Princeton University Press。  new window
14.Hudson, Valerie M.(2007)。Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory。Rowman & Littlefield Publishers。  new window
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19.中共中央文獻編輯委員會、鄧小平(1994)。鄧小平文選。北京：人民出版社。  延伸查詢new window
20.邵宗海(2006)。兩岸關係。五南圖書出版股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
21.Wohlforth, William Curtis(1993)。The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions During the Cold War。Ithaca, NY：Cornell University Press。  new window
22.趙全勝(19990000)。解讀中國外交政策：微觀、宏觀相結合的研究方法。臺北：月旦出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.中共中央毛澤東選輯出版委員會(1969)。毛澤東選輯四卷合訂本。北京。  延伸查詢new window
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35.Kranser, Stephen D.(1988)。Are Bureaucracy Important? A Re-examination of Accounts of Cuban Missile Crisis。The Domestic Sources of American Foreign Policy: Insights and Evidence。NY。  new window
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其他
1.張五岳。八八水災過後兩岸政治對話與ECFA協商的展望，http://www.tri.org.tw/trinews/doc/981027_2.pdf。  延伸查詢new window
2.國立政治大學中國大陸研究中心。中共政治菁英資料庫，http://ics.nccu.edu.tw/chinaleaders/index.htm， 2006/08/21。  延伸查詢new window
3.國立政治大學選舉研究中心。重要政治態度分布趨勢圖（1992年6月-2010年6月），http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/modules/tinyd2/content/TaiwanChineseID.htm。  延伸查詢new window
4.(2004)。鄭必堅：中國和平崛起的新道路和亞洲的未來，http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2003-11/24/content_1195240.htm。  延伸查詢new window
5.中共中央辦公廳主要職能，http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64114/64124/6131270.html。  延伸查詢new window
6.學習胡六點，主席臺透露中央對臺班子，http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1011/8/4/4/101184464.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=101184464。  new window
圖書論文
1.Wang, Philip Fei-Ling(2005)。Beijing's Incentive Structure: The Pursuit of Preservation, Prosperity, and Power。China Rising: Power and Motivation in Chinese Foreign Policy。Rowman & Littlefield。  new window
2.Fewsmith, Joseph、Rosen, Stanley(2001)。The Domestic Context of Chinese Foreign Policy: Does 'Public Opinion' Matter?。The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy, 1978-2000。Stanford University Press。  new window
3.Tetlock, Philip E.(1991)。Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy: In Search of an Elusive Concept。Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy。Boulder：Westview Press。  new window
4.Clarke, M.(1996)。Foreign Policy Analysis: A Theoretical Guide。Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy: Western European Reactions to the Falklands Conflict。Berg Press。  new window
5.Dittmer, Lowell(2004)。The Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership: Ghost of the 'Strategic Triangle'?。Chinese Foreign Policy in Transition。New York：Walter de Gruyter Press。  new window
6.Rosati, Jerel A.、Hagan, Joe D.、Sampson, Martin W. III(1994)。The Study of Change in Foreign Policy。Foreign Policy Restructuring: How Governments Respond to Global Change。Columbia, CA：University of South Carolina Press。  new window
7.Spadoni, Paolo(2006)。The U.S. Congress and the Cuban Embargo: An Analysis of a Learning Process。Organizational Learning in the Global Context。Burlington, VT：Ashgate Publishing Company Press。  new window
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10.Hermann, Margaret G.(1978)。Effects of Personal Characteristic of Political Leaders on Foreign Policy。Why Nations Act: Theoretical Perspectives for Comparative Foreign Policy Studies。Sage Publications Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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