隨著國際經貿互動日益頻繁,經濟活動與分工的複雜化,如何洞悉瞬息萬變的經濟情勢,掌握商品價量的變動,成為眾所關注的重要議題。是以,經濟統計學家陸續創立了各種指數理論與公式,並廣泛的應用到各國公部門的統計編製與跨國比較。本文針對我國工業生產指數採用拉氏 (Laspeyres)、裴氏 (Paasche)、費氏 (Fisher)等三類公式整理分析其優缺點,另以拉氏 (Laspeyres)公式為主軸,分析定基 (Fixed-base)、鏈鎖 (Chained)兩類編算指數方法 ,並以 2007−2012年工業生產統計資料實際研編鏈鎖拉氏工業生產指數 ,並與現行發布之工業生產指數進行比較。研究發現 :(1)採用鏈鎖拉氏指數與定基拉氏指數編算工業生產指數 ,其趨勢趨於一致,皆能適切反映產業之變動。 (2)鏈鎖拉氏指數因可變基期,更能精確反應實際生產變動,但基於成本與時效考量 ,利用產品價格指數設算權重為有限資源下最為可行之方法。 (3)我國現編工業生產指數採定基拉氏公式,每 5年更換基期,並以鏈鎖法銜接新舊基期指數,符合聯合國統計處建議,且在國際間亦為主要國家所採用之方法。(4)考量成本時效因素,以及國際間資料之比較,現編工業生產指數仍為最務實方法,另再輔以編製鏈鎖拉氏工業生產指數以供各界參用。

In this article, we analyze the advantages and disadvantages of three types, Laspeyres, Paasche, and Fisher, of formula that applied in compiling Taiwan industrial production index. Next, we focus on Laspeyres formula, analyzing two types, fixed-based and chained, of index method. We use actual 2007-2012 Taiwan’s industrial production data to compile chained Laspeyres index of industrial production, and compare it with current published fixed-based industrial production index. Through our study, we have several conclusions: (1) Chained and fixed-based Laspeyres indexes of Taiwan industrial production have consistent trend line and both reflect real-time production changes appropriately. (2) Chained Laspeyres index can reflect more accurately changes in the actual production due to flexible bases. However, considering limitation of time and budget, establishing weights with price index of products could be the most cost-efficient choice. (3) Currently, Taiwan Industrial production index is compiled with fixed-based Laspeyres formula; meanwhile, weights are updated every 5 years, the chain linking method is used when weights are updated. The approach is in line with the United Nations Statistics Division recommendation, and is also generally recognized by major economies. (4) As a matter of fact, take into account the cost efficiency and international comparison capability, fixed based Laspeyres approach still is the most practical method for industrial production index of Taiwan at this moment. Additionally, a chained based Laspeyres index might be useful as well for other sectors of society.