學界探討蔣中正對淞滬會戰之戰略時，常指出蔣有意藉擴大上海戰事，誘使 日軍由北往南之進攻軸線，轉變為由東向西仰攻之不利態勢。會戰後，國軍雖傷 亡慘重，但迫使日軍作戰重心南移，可說獲得了戰略上的成功。此一「軸線移轉 說」遭到許多質疑，正反意見紛陳，至今仍未有定見。 本文以此為中心，參酌當事人日記及相關檔案，重探蔣中正對淞滬會戰之 戰略。結論指出，蔣有意主動在淞滬發動攻勢，其戰略為先發制敵，保衛京滬要 地，及支持政略。在初期戰事不利之後，蔣轉為持久戰略，欲在淞滬持久消耗日 軍，以待國際援助或日本內部變化。至9 月下旬，從持久戰略衍伸出引敵南下戰 略，意圖將主戰場由華北轉移至淞滬，使日軍被動，國軍擊其一點，配合政略進 展。戰事末期，蔣受政略牽引，在空間持久與陣地持久間拿捏未當，最終喪失有 序撤退良機，全軍潰退。 蔣中正的淞滬戰略，有一演進過程；至於軸線移轉戰略，戰前雖曾討論， 開戰後實未執行。

It has often been pointed out by scholars that Chiang Kai-shek’s strategy for the Battle of Shanghai was intended to broaden the battle scope for the purpose of enticing the Imperial Japanese Army (the IJA) to change their offense axis from north-south to east-west China. Although the National Revolutionary Army (the NRA) had suffered heavy casualties in this battle, they managed to drive the IJA’s main force to the south successfully. So this “axis-changing strategy” argument emphasizes that the NRA was successful in terms of strategy. In effect, until now, there has been no consensus on the matter. This article re-visits this particular issue, and concludes that Chiang did intend to launch a war in Shanghai actively, and his strategies were multiple, including preemptive strikes, strategic points defending, and diplomatic negotiations at the beginning. After having failed to initiate combat, his strategy turned to a protracted war. In late September, the protracted war strategy was so extended as to entice the IJA’s main force from North to South China. Near the end of the war, Chiang was so swayed by diplomacy that he could not have chosen his retreat timing well. The NRA however lost this battle tragically in consequence. In sum, Chiang Kai-shek’ strategy for the Battle of Shanghai was constantly changing. The “Axis-changing strategy” was being discussed in the prewar period, but was actually not put into practice in the Battle of Shanghai.