臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆   第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁
/1頁
題名：現代化理論vs.政權穩定論：中國大陸民主發展的前景
書刊名：政治科學論叢
作者：吳玉山 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wu, Yu-shan
出版日期：1998
卷期：9
頁次：頁443-463
主題關鍵詞：現代化理論；政權穩定論；中國大陸；民主發展
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(20) 博士論文(4) 專書(3) 專書論文(3)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:20
  • 共同引用共同引用:102
  • 點閱點閱:215
　　　　　眾所周知在一九五○和一九六○年代主宰比較政治領域，並且在一九八○年代末又重新興起的現代化理論(modernization paradigm)最重要的命題便是經濟首社會的發展會帶來政治的開放和民主化。如此看來在中國大陸上由經濟改革所帶來的高速成長將會促成治改革。然而另外一個關於政治變遷的經濟社會理論－政權穩定理論(regime stability theory)－卻認為在威權體制下所產生的高速經濟發展會鞏固錍權統治，壓抑民主力量。以中國大的例子來看，政權穩定論認為成功的經濟改革命替代政治改革，持續提供中國共產黨政治一黨專政的合法性。很明顯地，現代化理論和政權穩定理論對於經濟改革與經濟發展對於威權統治所產生的影響有不同的看法。 因此，本篇論文將現代化理論和政權穩定理論加以比較，並且探討二對於中國大陸的適用性。我們的結論是威權政體的合法性在經濟改革的過程當中，先是如政權穩定理論所預測的上升，然後會如現代化理所預測的下降。和此一現象相對應的是社會對於民主的需求(包內在性的需求和工具性的需求)會先下降，然後再上升，因而形成一個"U"形的上凹曲線。造成此一現象的原因是就長期而言，現代化和經濟結構的變動帶來了內在性的民主需求，而經濟成長的趨緩也提升了工具性的民主需求。這個新的模式，主要是用時間序列將現代化理論和政權穩定理論融合在一起，對於中國大陸政治變遷的經濟社會背景提出了更細膩的看法。
　　　　　It is well-known that the modernization paradigm that dominated the field of comparative politics in the 1950s and 1960s and resurged in the 1980s is centered on the theme that economic and social development will bring about political openness and democracy. Based on this theorem, one may predict that the high growth of the mainland Chinese economy during the reform period is bound to lead to political liberalization. Another theory on this matter, the regime stability theory, asserts that rapid economic development led by an authoritarian regime tends to strengthen its rule and facilitate the suppression of democratic forces. When applied to the Chinese mainland, regime stability theory predicts that economic reform will be substituted for political reform to provide legitimacy for the dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party. Apparently modernization paradigm and regime stability theory predict different impacts of economic development on authoritarian politics. The purpose of this paper is to compare the modernization paradigm and the regime stability theory, and to explore their respective applicability to the mainland Chinese case. It is found that the legitimacy of an authoritarian regime first rises with successful economic reform, as predicted by the regime stability theory, then declines following the prediction of the modernization paradigm, thus forming a "U" curve. It is the case because modernization fues intrinsic demand for democracy. This new model combines the theoretical thrusts of the modernization paradigm and the regime stability theory to provide a sophisticated analysis of the economic and social background for political change in the Chinese Mainland.
期刊論文
1.Baum, Ricard(1996)。China after Deng: Ten Scenarios in Search of Reality。The China Quarterly，145，153-175。  new window
2.Huntington, Samuel P.(1971)。The Change to Change--Modernization, Development, and Politics。Comparative Politics，3(3)，283-322。  new window
3.Pye, Lucian W.(1990)。Political Science and the Crisis of Authoritarianism。American Political Science Review，84(1)，3-19。  new window
4.Bhagwati, Jagdish(1992)。Democracy and Development。Journal of Democracy，3(3)，37-44。  new window
5.Dittmer, Lowell、Wu, Yu-Shan(1995)。The Modernization of Factionalism in Chinese Politics。World Politics，47(4)，467-494。  new window
6.Lowenthal, Richard(1974)。On Established Communist Party Regimes。Studies in Comparative Communism，7(4)，335-58。  new window
7.Löwenthal, Richard(1983)。The Post-Revolutionary Phase in China and Russia。Studies in Comparative Communism，16(3)，191-201。  new window
8.Wu, Yu-shan(19970800)。From Reform to Bureaucratic Stability in the PRC。Issues & Studies，33(8)，81-104。  new window
9.Di Palma, Giuseppe(1991)。Legitimation from the Top to Civil Society: Politico-Cultural Change in Eastern Europe。World Politics，44(1)，49-80。  new window
10.Di Palma, Giuseppe(1991)。Why Democracy Can Work in Eastern Europe。Journal of Democracy，2(1)，21-33。  new window
11.Lewis, Paul G.(1990)。Democratization in Eastern Europe。Coexistence，27(4)，253-267。  new window
12.吳玉山(1996)。Review of 'The Waning' of the Communist State: Economic Origins of Political Decline in China and Hungary。American Political Science Review，90(4)，949-950。  new window
13.Ericson, Richard E.(1991)。The Classical Soviet-Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for Reform。The Journal of Economic Perspectives，5(4)，11-27。  new window
14.Wolf, Thomas A.(1991)。The Lessons of Limited Market-Oriented Reform。The Journal of Economic Perspectives，5(4)，45-58。  new window
15.White, Gordon(1994)。Democratization and Economic Reform in China。The Austrian Journal of Chinese Affairs，31，73-92。  new window
16.Jennings, M. Kent(1997)。Political Participation in Chinese Countryside。American Political Science Review，91(2)，361-372。  new window
17.Overholt, William H.(1996)。China after Deng。Foreign Affairs，75(3)，63-78。  new window
會議論文
1.吳玉山(1994)。Resisting Reform: A Theoretical Explanation of the Reaction Mode of Mainland China, Romania, North Korea and Vietnam。  new window
2.牛銘實、Shi, Tianjian(1997)。An Introduction and Evaluation of the Electoral Systems Used in Chinese Village Elections。College Park, MD。  new window
研究報告
1.吳玉山(1996)。中國大陸派系鬥爭與經濟循環互動之研究。行政院國家科學委員會。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.林毅夫、蔡肪、李周(1995)。中國的奇蹟：發展戰略與經濟改革。上海：上海人民出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.吳玉山、林文程、江水平(1995)。後鄧時期對大陸及臺灣的震盪。臺北：國家發展文教基金會。  延伸查詢new window
3.Lewin, Moshe(1991)。The Gorbachev Phenomenon: A Historical Interpretation。Berkeley and LA：University of California Press, exp. ed。  new window
4.周雪光(1992)。當代中國的國家與社會關係。臺灣：桂冠圖書。  延伸查詢new window
5.Janos, Andrew C.(1986)。Politics and Paradigms--Changing Theories of Change in Social Science。Stanford, California：Stanford University Press。  new window
6.Swain, Nigel(1992)。Hungary: The Rise and Fall of Feasible Socialism。London：Verso。  new window
7.Walder, Andrew G.(1995)。The Waning of the Communist State: Economic Origins of Political Decline in China and Hungary。Berkeley, CA：University of California Press。  new window
8.Wu, Yu-Shan(1994)。Comparative Economic Transformations--Mainland China, Hungary, the Soviet Union, and Taiwan。Stanford, California：Stanford University Press。  new window
9.鄒讜(1994)。二十世紀中國政治：從宏觀歷史與微觀行動角度看。牛津大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
10.White, Gordon(1993)。Riding the Tiger: The Politics of Economic Reform in Post-Mao China。Stanford：Stanford University Press。  new window
11.Przeworski, Adam(1991)。Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America。Cambridge University Press。  new window
12.Moore, Barrington Jr.(1966)。Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World。Beacon Press。  new window
13.吳玉山(19950000)。共產世界的變遷：四個共黨政權的比較。臺北：東大。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.吳玉山(19960000)。遠離社會主義：中國大陸、蘇聯和波蘭的經濟轉型。臺北：正中。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.江澤民(1996)。正確處理社會主義現代化建設中的若干重大關係。與總書記談心。北京。  延伸查詢new window
16.Bialer, Seweryn(1980)。Stalin's Successors--Leadership, Stability, and Change in the Soviet Union。Cambridge, Massachusetts：Cambridge University Press。  new window
17.Spring, D. W.(1991)。The Impact of Gorbachev--The First Phase, 1985-90。London：Pinter。  new window
18.Gati, Charles(1990)。The Bloc That Failed--Soviet-East European Relations in Transition。Bloomington, Indiana：Indiana University Press。  new window
19.李永熾(1994)。歷史之終結與最後一人。歷史之終結與最後一人。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
20.Szelrnyi, Ivwn(1988)。Socialist Entrepreneur: Embourgeoisement in Rural Hungary。Socialist Entrepreneur: Embourgeoisement in Rural Hungary。Madison。  new window
21.Zhang, Jialin(1994)。China's Response to the Downfall of Communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union。Essays in Public Policy。Stanford。  new window
22.鄧小平(1993)。社會主義必須擺脫貧窮。鄧小平文選，第三卷。北京。  延伸查詢new window
23.(1990)。The Broken Mirror。The Broken Mirror。Essex。  new window
24.(1991)。新權威主義。新權威主義。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
25.Meier, Gerald M.(1989)。Leading Issues in Economic Development。Oxford：Oxford University Press。  new window
26.Rupnik, Jacques(1979)。Dissent in Poland, 1968-78: the End of Revisionism and the Rebirth of Civil Society。Opposition in Eastern Europe。Baltimore, MD。  new window
27.Perry, Elizabeth(1991)。Intellectuals and Tiananmen: Historical Perspective on an Aborted Revolution。The Crisis of Leninism and the Decline of the Left。Seattle, WA。  new window
圖書論文
1.Rostow, W.W.(1991)。Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union: A Technological Time Warp。The Crisis of Leninism and the Decline of the Left。Seattle：University of Washington Press。  new window
2.Lowenthal, Richard(1970)。Development vs. Utopia in Communist Policy。Change in Communist Systems。Stanford：Stanford University Press。  new window
3.Goodman, David S. G.(1988)。Communism in East Asia--The Production Imperative, Legitimacy and Reform。Communism and Reform in East Asia。London：Frank Cass。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關著作
 
無相關點閱
 
QR Code
QRCODE

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

目前上線人數：1271（臺灣：1241，外國：30） ／ 本年度總使用人次：1669892 ／ 訪客人次（自102年09月）：67479282
國家圖書館著作權聲明 Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.
本館地址: 100201臺北市中山南路20號． 本館地圖及交通資訊．
總機：(02)23619132．最佳瀏覽解析度為1024x768以上