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題名:東亞區域經濟整合-以東盟為分析主軸
作者:林永芳
作者(外文):Yung-fang Lin
校院名稱:臺灣大學
系所名稱:國家發展研究所
指導教授:李炳南
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2009
主題關鍵詞:東亞區域區域經濟整合相互依賴理論東盟中日韓自由貿易區東盟+N(10+110+3)East Asian regionregional economic integrationinterdependence theoryASEANChinaJapan and South Korea free trade areaASEAN + N (10 +110 +3)
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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1997年亞洲金融風暴,東亞區域國家思慮自身安危乃加強區域整合意願,並體認到全球化下的遊戲規則反映的是世界強權者的利益,符合強權者的偏好。面對這種情況,東亞各國了解維護自身利益,必須通過區域整合以建立維護地區共同利益,否則,必會被歐美所主導的全球化壟斷利益。而2008年的金融風暴使世界經濟受創,相較於1997年的金融危機,東亞國家此次受創輕微許多,造成此種現象的一個關鍵因素,應與1997危機後東亞區域經濟整合加速,使個別國家再次面臨危機可以以區域力量對抗。因此東亞區域經濟整合的發展脈絡與未來趨勢,不但深深影響區域內國家經濟發展,更對未來國際經濟局勢變動產生作用。
當今世界經濟最為活躍的三個地區是西歐、北美和東亞。前兩個地區已經先後建立了成功的區域性組織-歐盟(EU)和北美自由貿易區(NAFTA);歐盟的區域整合發展的層次最高,經歷了半個世紀的發展,建立了經濟聯盟並發生了相應的國家權力轉移;北美自由貿易區的整合建立於1992年,發展迅速,美、加、墨三國之間的貿易與投資聯繫相當緊密。歐盟與北美自由貿易區成功經驗對東亞雖有借鑒意義,但東亞不能套用;因為東亞各國具有經濟政治多樣性,地區政治關係複雜使東亞國際關係又具有典型的「外部干預性」特徵。因此東亞經濟整合運作與美國、歐盟等外部國際因素形成某種敏感關係,加上區域內的中國與日本因歷史造成的不信任,使兩國合作困難也導致整合發展遲緩。所以本文以「異質性」為基礎展開的區域整合研究,與歐美傳統的區域經濟整合理論是以成員體具有「同質性」為整合的基礎條件,兩者理論與途徑選擇自有不同。
東亞區域國家之間不需具有同質性的條件,成為東亞區域經濟整合前行的大背景,因此東盟10國已經成功整合為一經濟體,乃構成了本文研究的邏輯起點。觀之東亞區域經濟整合的歷史演進與東盟整合的發展是息息相關,而東盟在全球化國際分工體系所架構的自由貿易區,對於東亞區域經濟整合提供可能發展模式。總之對東亞區域經濟整合的研究,是基於對歐美區域經濟整合經驗的反思,因此東亞區域經濟整合將跳脫傳統區域經濟整合模式,另闢蹊徑。而在現實世界研究東亞區域經濟整合,是冀望東亞區域經濟整合的發展有益於提升東亞各國的國際競爭力,東亞各國不再只是全球化制度規則的追隨者,而是能在全球化風潮中借由區域整合力量成為國際規則的適應者甚至是制定者。
本文對東亞區域經濟整合的研究,沿著東盟自由貿易區的主軸展開,從東盟區域組織形成的歷史演進回顧,並分析經濟效應是東盟形成整合主要的推動力量。但是在經濟推動整合的效應有限下,政治的作用才是使東盟更進一步整合的原因,東盟在東亞整合扮演著規範示範者、機制發動者與中日大國間的緩衝器。因此,東盟各成員國之間已經形成了事實上緊密的相互依賴關係,而東盟組織的深化與廣化,與東亞整合整體進程關係密不可分,也因而觸發了東盟與東亞各國之間展開經濟整合進程。
而東盟10國均是小國缺乏資金與市場,形成整合後的效應有限,因此東盟必須尋求與東北亞的中日韓大國合作,所以東盟為起點展開東盟與東北亞國家中、日、韓的經濟整合,以及東北亞中、日、韓三國整合為一經濟體的可能性分析,更是東亞區域整合得否成功的關鍵。除東亞區域內的整合進程外,分析東亞區域外的國際因素如何影響東亞區域整合,也是不可忽視的因素。東亞區域經濟整合必須放置於國際關係中思考,因此東亞區域經濟整合需顧及東亞區域外環境因素,東亞區域經濟整合的目標和路徑的分析,不但要與本地區的制度環境相吻合,更是受到歐美等國家以及APEC國際組織的影響。
至於東亞整合的前景,經由對東亞整合模式的制度化發展優劣予以檢討,並以整合模式的比較分析為基礎,探討東亞區域經濟整合的路徑的發展選擇,經由整合路徑發展的可能性則可評斷東亞整合前景。
本研究結果有以下發現:第一、東亞區域整合是異質性整合的理論基礎。傳統整合理論研究是以歐美國家為研究藍本,強調參與區域經濟整合的國家具同質性。而東亞各國在經濟制度和發展水準上是異質性整合,因此東亞區域經濟整合轉向異質性發展的理論創新。第二,東亞經濟整合模式是多軌整合。東亞區域經濟整合由東盟發動,經由10+1、10+3機制,化解東亞雙邊FTA逐漸增加所出現的經濟整合的阻礙,是東亞經濟整合模式的一種創新。第三,提出弱制度化的機制安排是符合東亞區域整合所需。由於東亞國家政治上的彼此不信任,因此整合主要機制10+3是一種對話性的機制,區域國家形成的共識不具強制規範。第四,東亞區域經濟整合的實際主導力是中、日經濟大國,但東盟卻是各項整合機制的啟動者,是使東亞區域整合進程順利開展的關鍵。
Abstract
The 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asian countries minds of their safety is to strengthen regional integration will. It is necessary to maintain regional integration in order to establish common interests in East Asia and to against benefits of EU and NAFTA under globalization. The development of regional economic integration in East Asia, not only deeply affects the country’s economic development within the region, but also has an effect on the international economic change in the future.
The most active economic development in three regions is Western Europe, North America and East Asia in today''s world. The first two areas have successively established a successful regional organization - the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). Because the East Asian countries have the economic and political diversity, but also have the typical “external interference” of features in international relations. Therefore, this paper based on “Heterogeneity” of regional integration to research carried out, with the traditional theory of regional economic integration is based on “homogeneous” both options will have different theories and ways.
To study of regional economic integration in East Asia is along the main line of the ASEAN’s integration process. From the ASEAN evolution and history find out the economic effects of the formation of ASEAN integration of the main driving force. However, the effects of the economic promotion of integration are limited in that time, the role of politics is to enable further integration of ASEAN. ASEAN Integration in East Asia, who played a standard model, mechanisms, as well as those who launched a buffer between China and Japan.
The ASEAN countries are small countries which lack of funds and the market so that the combined effects of limited dependent. The ASEAN countries must find to cooperate with Northeast Asia major powers such as China, Japan and South Korea. In addition to the East Asian integration process, the analysis of international factors outside the East Asian region how they affect the East Asian regional integration, but also can not be ignored.
To be reviewed the development of pros and cons of the integration in East Asian, have through the institutionalization of the East Asian model of integration. The basis of a comparative analysis of integration models to explore the path options of regional economic integration in East Asia. Finally the possibilities of development through the integration of the path, we can find out the prospects for East Asian integration.
The results of this study are the following findings: First, the East Asian regional integration theory is based on heterogeneous integration. Traditional integration theory stressed that the countries involved in regional economic integration with homogeneity. The East Asian countries are heterogeneous integration, regional economic integration in East Asia therefore turned to the heterogeneity of the development of theoretical innovation. Second, the East Asian economic integration model is the multi-track integration. East Asian regional economic integration, initiated by the ASEAN, through the 10 +1, 10 +3 mechanism and bilateral FTA, economic integration in East Asia is an innovative model. Third, the weak institutional arrangements are needed to meet the regional integration in East Asia. Fourth, China and Japan are the real dominant force in East Asian regional economic integration process.
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宋鎮照, 2003 ,〈解析當前美中兩國亞太政策下的東南亞發展策略〉,《展望與探索》,1卷7 期,頁12-27。
宋鎮照,2006,〈從東亞經濟整合趨勢看台灣區域發展思維與策略〉,《立法院院聞》,34卷8期,頁9-26。
李一平,2009,〈中國與東盟區域合作:現狀與前景〉,《貴州財經學院學報,》 2期,頁 59-64。
李文,2002,〈東亞的崛起與東西方關係的嬗變〉,《北京行政學院學報》,5期。
杜巧霞,2007,〈東協、東亞區域整合與亞太自由貿易區〉,台商政策文件電子報,第710期,2007年5月14日。
李玉珍,2006,〈論經濟全球化中的中日韓經濟一體化〉,北京財政部:《經濟研究參考》,91期。
李星原,2008,〈中日韓自由貿易區構建探析〉,《特區經濟》,10期。
李淑娟,2006a,〈東亞地區的雙邊FTA熱與東亞經濟一體化〉,《亞太經濟》,1期。
李淑娟,2006b,〈論東亞區域內貿易發展的特點及其成因〉,福建:《當代亞太》, 1期。
李眾敏,2007,〈東亞地區貿易自由化的福利影響及前景展望〉,北京:《世界經濟與政治》,1期,頁75-80。
沈丹陽等,2004,〈區域經濟一體化第三次浪潮與構築泛亞洲經濟共同體〉,北京:《國際經濟合作》,6期。
沈伯明,2005,〈區域貿易協定與建立中韓自由貿易區芻議〉,武漢:《對外貿易實務》,10期,頁9-12。
汪斌,1998,〈東亞國際分工的發展與21世紀的新產業發展模式〉,《亞太經濟》, 7期。
周迪年,1998,〈試論地區經濟一體化〉,北京:《世界經濟》,10期。
宗像直子,2007,〈東亞經濟一體化的歷史與展望〉,日本經濟產業研究所:《經濟產業》,3月號。
邱丹陽,2005,〈中國—東盟自由貿易區:中國和平崛起的地緣經濟學思考〉,北京:《當代亞太》,1 期。
邵惟楠,2004,〈東亞區域經濟一體化:前景與問題〉,《國際經濟合作》, 6期。
侯貞貞,2001,〈東亞區域經濟整合與對我國影響〉,台北中經院:《東南亞經貿投資季刊》,14期。
南風窗社評,〈危機世界的新財富版圖〉,廣東:《南風窗》,2008年11月24日。
柳劍平、孫雲華,2006,〈垂直專業化分工與中國對東亞經濟體的貿易逆差-兼及中國美國貿易順差的比較分析〉,《世界經濟研究》,7期。
洪振義,〈全球化下台灣、東南亞國際分工生產體制之研究:WTO與FTA國際經濟體制下的產業發展戰略〉,台中亞洲大學:2008台灣的東南亞區域研究年度研討會,2008年4月25-26日。
范洪穎,2007,〈東亞雙邊貿易協定的發展及其風險〉,《世界經濟與政治論壇》,4期。
唐代彪、林永芳,2007,〈中國崛起對東亞經貿互動的影響〉,銘傳大學:胡錦濤政權之續與變學術研討會論文集,2007年6月14-15日。
孫東民,2004,〈日本:期待FTA 的助推〉,北京:《人民日報》,2004年03月26日第七版。
孫芳,2008,〈東亞地區自由貿易協定的發展現狀及中國的對策〉,深圳市社會科學院:《特區經濟》,12期 。
孫國祥,2005a,〈東亞區域整合之演進與願景:經貿、金融與安全面向的探討〉,《遠景基金會季刊》, 6卷1期,頁119-165。new window
孫國祥,2005b,〈區域間主義之研究:亞歐會議之實踐〉,《亞太研究通訊》,第3期,頁 31-53new window
耿協峰,2001a, 〈“新地區主義”研究—不同視角的評析〉,《世界經濟與政治》,1期。
耿協峰,2001b,〈西方國際關係研究中對地區主義的不同理論解釋述評〉,《歐洲》,2期。
馬春林、吳衝鋒,2004,〈全球經濟一體化還是區域經濟一體化- 經濟全球化的發展趨勢分析〉,北京:《世界經濟導刊》, 2期。
馬樹生、劉厚俊,2004,〈中國在亞洲區域合作中的地位和作用〉,北京:《國際貿易問題》, 總263期,頁47-49。
張心怡,2006,〈評析當前東亞經濟整合與台灣因應之道〉,台北:《歐洲國際評論》,2期,頁1-46。new window
張宗斌,2006,〈東亞經濟發展模式的演變與重構〉,吉林大學:《東北亞論壇》, 15卷4期。
張海冰,2003,《歐洲一體化的歷程對東亞經濟一體化的啟示》,上海:《世界經濟研究》,4 期。
張曦,2004,〈日本對中國的政府開發援助〉,北京:《世界經濟》,2期。
張曦,谷永芬,2004,〈在WTO 和APEC 框架下建立中韓貿易自由區〉,哈爾濱:《商業研究》,8期,頁74-76。
梁曉丹,2007,〈試論制度變遷對東亞經濟一體化影響〉,《湘南學院學報》,6期,頁22-26。
梁雙陸、程小軍,2007,〈國際區域經濟一體化理論綜述〉,雲南昆明:《經濟問題探索》,1期。
陳玉璽,2002,〈資訊經濟與東亞政治經濟學的蛻變〉,《國政研究報告》,2002年5月28日。
陳德民,2005,〈建立中韓自由貿易區推動東亞經濟一體化發展〉,吉林大學:《東北亞論壇》,1期,頁13-17。
陳鴻瑜,2006,〈2005年東亞峰會評析〉,《展望與探索》, 4卷1期,頁5-11
曾怡仁、張惠玲,2000,〈區域整合理論的發展〉,台北政大國關中心:《問題與研究》,39卷8期,頁53-71。new window
湯光鴻,2004,〈非傳統安全對我國國際關係理論的新挑戰〉,《太平洋學報》,1期。
焦金鳳,2005,〈東海大陸架的劃界的中日關係〉,北京:《科技資訊》, 3月號。
童益民,2005,〈東亞經濟整合對APEC的衝擊〉,《亞太經濟合作評論》,台北:中華台北APEC研究中心,13期,頁21-32。
黃金湯,2000,〈後冷戰時期中日外交關係〉,台北:淡江國際事務與戰略研究所,2000年。
馮昭奎,2002,〈中日如何向歐洲學習〉,《環球時報:國際論壇》,2002年8月18日。
黃煉,1999,〈全球化學術探討〉,武漢:《社會科學動態》, 12期。
楊力明,2005,〈從美國與中共對台戰略探討台灣安全〉,《黃埔學報》,第49期,頁49-62
楊永明,2008,〈東亞的政治經濟動脈:多重雙邊關係與東亞區域主義的交錯〉,台灣經濟研究院:《APEC重要議題研究》,頁10-18。
楊志恆,2000,〈美日安保之沿革及其對台海安全之影響〉,台北:《戰略與國際研究》,4期。
靳衛萍,2008,〈宏觀經濟學中的政治經濟學-以新政治經濟學的研究方法為視角〉,《財經問題研究》,1期。
廖舜右,2005,〈APEC之發展與我國之參與〉,《世局變化下的APEC與我國參與學術研討會論文集》,中華台北APEC研究中心。
廖舜右、宋興洲,2007,〈東北亞經濟整合可能發展之初探〉,《亞太經濟合作評論》,15期,頁52-62。
趙文衡,2002,〈東協與中共成立自由貿易區初探〉,《臺灣經濟研究月刊》,25卷2期,頁103-108。
趙洪,2004,〈日本與東亞經濟合作〉,北京:《當代亞太》, 3期。
齊志新,2005,〈歷史認知與中日政經關係:影響測度與博奕分析〉,北京:《世界經濟與政治》,9期。
劉少華,2007,〈論東盟在東亞區域合作中的領導能力〉,北京:《當代亞太》,9期,頁39-45。
劉均勝,2002,〈APEC模式的制度分析〉,北京:《當代亞太》,1期。
劉昌黎,2001,《日韓自由貿易區對我國的影響及對策》,北京:《世界經濟》,11 期。
劉紅忠、戚海,2001,〈亞元誕生的現實性思考〉,上海:《世界經濟文彙》,2期。
劉德標,2009,〈如何提高區域貿易協定優惠待遇的利用率值得重視〉,《對外經貿實務》,10期。
潘光、王震,2004,〈亞歐會議機制化問題淺析〉,北京:《現代國際關係》,7期。
鄭必堅,2003,〈中國和平崛起新道路和亞洲的未來〉,2003年11月30日在2003年博鼇亞洲論壇的講演。
鄭先武,2005,〈安全複合體理論與東亞安全區域主義〉,《現代國際關係》, 2期。
蕭全政,2001,〈東亞區域主義的發展與台灣的角色〉,台北:《政治科學論叢》,14期,頁201-222。new window
龍永圖,1999,〈關於經濟全球化問題〉,北京:《太平洋學報》,10期,頁3-9。
聯合早報,2009,〈東盟信任美國勝過中國〉,2009年11月4日。
薛敬孝、張伯偉,2004,〈東亞經貿合作安排:基於可計算一般均衡模型的比較研究〉,《世界經濟》,6期。
羅斐、莊起善,2005,〈貿易強度對東亞國家和地區經濟波動同步性的影響〉,《世界經濟研究》,2期。
龐中英,2001,〈東盟與東亞:微妙的『東亞地區主義』〉,北京中國社科院:《太平洋學報》,2期。
蘇宏達,2001,〈以「憲政主權」概念解釋歐洲統合之發展〉,《歐美研究》,31卷4期,頁629-687。new window

三、網路資料
中國評論,2006,〈中日“雙頭雁”引領東亞經濟一體化潛行〉
http://www.chinareviewnews.com
中國國家統計局
www.stats.gov.cn/was40/reldetail.jsp?docid=402375724
中國商務部統計
http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/tongji.shtml
中國商務部,2009,〈東盟與歐盟可能採取雙邊方式推進自貿區談判〉
http://www.dongmeng.org/news/asean/9283.html
中國海關統計
http://www.customs.gov.cn/tabid/400/default.aspx
中國商務部和日本經產省,2007,《中日經貿合作中長期發展規劃聯合研究》,2007年12月
www.mofcom.gov.cn/accessory/200712/1196765504553.doc
中國評論新聞,2009,〈中國全球競爭力超越印度〉, www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/7_0_100492519_1.html - 11k, 2009/4/15
白如純,〈 21世紀初日本對東南亞政策的新趨勢〉 http://www.cass.net.cn/chinese/s30_rbs/files/geren/bairc/jptodny.htm
世界銀行1997發展報告,1997
http://sard.ruc.edu.cn/chengshulan/files/jiaoxue/shbg/shbg07.pdf
江峽譯,2008,〈接觸和遏制:美國對中國的大戰略〉,《環球視野》
http://www.globalview.cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=15384
光明日報,2009,〈美加快重返東南亞步伐〉
http://china.com.cn, 2009/10/22
李文,2002,〈東亞的崛起與東西方關係的嬗變〉,《北京行政學院學報》,第5期
http://iaps.cass.cn/xueshuwz/showcontent.asp?id=63
李明星,〈 東亞經貿合作的機遇與挑戰〉http://72.14.235.132/search?q=cache:kCRE23c7bYIJ:www.neat.org.cn/uploadfiles/2008051410032612.doc+2006%E6%9D%B1%E4%BA%9E%E5%8D%80%E5%9F%9F%E5%A4%96%E8%B3%87&cd=3&hl=zh-TW&ct=clnk&gl=tw
東瀛傳真,2005,〈推動東亞合作日有心無力〉,東北網
nea.big5.northeast.cn/system/2004/12/13/018080530.shtml
宋鎮照,2003,〈解析當前美國與中國之亞太發展策略〉,《海峽評論》,第147期
http://www.haixiainfo.com.tw/FF/147-57.html
周學佑,2006,〈後冷戰時期美日同盟發展新趨勢〉,出國研究報告
http://open.nat.gov.tw/OpenFront/report/show_file.jsp?sysId=C09500701&fileNo=001
林家如、吳竹君,〈區域貿易協定對東亞發展現況、前景及對APEC影響〉,www.cept.gov.tw/upload/ECONEcoResearch/Annual/11
林華生,2008,〈東亞經濟整合的探討〉,南博網 http://big5.caexpo.org/gate/big5/info.caexpo.com/zixun/gongszs/2008-04-29/6690.html
南方新聞,2004,〈東盟扛起亞洲一體化大旗〉,南方新聞網國際新聞big5.southcn.com/gate/big5/news.southcn.com/200411290488.htm
俞新天,2007,〈東亞認同的發展與培育〉
www.shstone.net/sh_yj_cms/upics/200872695421K5FW.PDF
陸建人,〈東亞峰會:關鍵是讓東盟當核心〉,www.iapscass.cn/xueshuwz/showcontent.asp?id=688
莊奕琦,2007,〈東亞新區域經濟整合的發展評析〉,2007年11月22 日http://www.taiwanngo.tw/proinfo_more.asp?id=5594&subjectid=3713
陳玉璽,2002,〈資訊經濟與東亞政治經濟學的蛻變〉,《國政研究報告》http://old.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/IA/091/IA-R-091-062.htm
鄭永年,2007,〈美國對華戰略性貿易政策及其前景〉
http://hi.baidu.com/goodplum/blog/item/4b1e027bc07177f60bd18763.html
韓國KIEP報告,2008,《中日韓三國應考慮設立自由貿易區》,中國經濟網http://intl.ce.cn/specials/zxxx/200804/03/t20080403_15052207.shtml
張小濟、呂剛,2002,〈區域經濟一體化背景下的中日韓經濟合作〉
http://www.drcnet.com.cn/drcnet.channel.web/expert/showdoc.asp?doc_id=124915
張芳明,2009,〈美日峰會同意加強同盟普天問題成考驗〉http://n.yam.com/cna/international/200911/20091114775910.html
蘇珊.勞倫斯,2002,〈中國-東盟自由貿易區—兼顧所有人的利益〉,《遠東經濟評論》
Http://www.china.com.cn。
香港特別行政區政府,2008,〈2008年第一季經濟報告〉
www.hkeconomy.gov.hk
新加坡文獻館,2009,〈美國簽署「東南亞友好合作條約」〉
www.sginsight.com/xjp/index.php?id=3138

貳、英文部分
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