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題名:以「沈默螺旋」理論探討2001年臺北縣長選舉選民對候選人認知與臺灣前途的表達意願
書刊名:傳播與管理研究
作者:周玫楓左宗宏 引用關係
作者(外文):Chou, Mei-fengDzwo, Dustin Tzong-horng
出版日期:2003
卷期:3:1
頁次:頁69-100
主題關鍵詞:政治選舉沈默螺旋第三人效果參考團體表達意願Political electionReference groupsSpiral of silenceThird-person effectWillingness to express
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:195
  • 點閱點閱:27
本文以2001年台北縣縣長選舉為研究議題,應用「沉默螺旋理論」探討選民對於台灣前途以及候選人偏好的意見分佈情形,並進一步暸解參考團體與第三人效果感知兩個因素在驗證沈默螺旋理論時的可能影響程度。 研究結果發現此次選舉選民的民意形成過程的確契合「沉默螺旋理論」的基本假設:當個人意見與預估未來意見一致者,其表達意願會比個人意見與預估未來意見不一致者來的高。當選民支持的候選人與心中認定會當選的候選人是同一人時,認為他人比自己更容易受媒體影響的選民,表達意願較高。選民個人支持的候選人與親友支持的候選人一致時,其在公開場合表達己見的意願較高;在控制個人意見與預估未來意見的一致程度下,個人意見與親友意見一致程度並不影響表達意願。此外,政治立場傾向台灣獨立的選民的公開表達意願比主張維持現狀的選民來的強烈,但贊成統一的受訪者的公開表達意願則與上述兩者沒有顯著差異。
This study applied "Spiral of Silence Theory" to examining voters’ willingness to express opinions about candidates and Taiwan's future, one of most controversial issues in Taiwan, during the Taipei County Magistrate's Election in 2001. The findings supported the hypothesis of "Spiral of Silence Theory". Voters were more willing to express opinions publicly about Taiwan's future when their perception of the distribution of public opinion were the same as their own. Taking "third-personeffect"的the mediating factor, one who believed others would be more influenced by mass media than him/herself was more likely to express his/her own opinion when individual opinion was consistent with perceived public opinion.
期刊論文
1.翁秀琪(19970700)。選民的意見形成--以民國八十二年臺北縣縣長選舉為例檢驗「沉默螺旋理論」。新聞學研究,55,160-182。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Willnat, L.(1996)。Mass Media and Political Outspokenness in Hong Kong: Linking the Third-Person Effect and the Spiral of Silence。International Journal of Public Opinion Research,8(2),187-212。  new window
3.Taylor, D. G.(1982)。Pluralistic ignorance and the spiral of silence: A formal analysis。Public Opinion Quarterly,46,311-325。  new window
4.Perloff, R. M.(1993)。The third-person effect: A critical review and synthesis。Media Psychology,1(4),353-378。  new window
5.Noelle-Neumann, E.(1983)。The effect of media on media effects research。Journal of Communication,33,157-165。  new window
6.O'Gorman, H. J.、Garry, S. L.(1976)。Pluralistic ignorance: A replication and extension。Public Opinion Quarterly,40,449-458。  new window
7.Noelle-Neumann, E.(1989)。Advances in spiral of silence research。Keio Communication Review,10,3-34。  new window
8.Mutz, D. C.(1989)。The influence of perceptions of media influence: Third person effects and public expression of opinions。International Journal of Public Opinion Research,1(1),3-23。  new window
9.Jeffres, L. W.、Neuendorf, K. A.、Atkin, D.(1999)。Spirals of silence: expressing opinions when the climate of opinion is unambiguous。Political Communication,16(2),115-131。  new window
10.Scheufele, D. A.、Shanahan J.、Lee E.(2001)。Real talk: Manipulating the dependent variable in spiral of silence research。Communication Research,28(3),304-324。  new window
11.Noelle-Neumann, E.(1977)。Turbulences in the Climate of Opinion: Methodological Applications of the Spiral of Silence Theory。Public Opinion Quarterly,41(2),143-158。  new window
12.Oshagan, H.(1996)。Reference group influence on opinion expression。International Journal of Public Opinion Research,8(4),335-354。  new window
13.McLeod, Jack M.、Scheufele, Dietram A.、Moy, Patricia(1999)。Community, communication, and participation: The role of mass media and interpersonal discussion in local political participation。Political Communication,16(3),315-336。  new window
14.McDonald, D. G.、Glynn, C. J.、Kim, S. H.、Ostman, R. E.(2001)。The spiral of silence in the 1948 presidential election。Communication Research,28(2),139-155。  new window
15.Kennamer, J. D.(1990)。Self-serving biases in perceiving the opinion of others: Implications for the spiral of silence。Communication Research,17(3),393-404。  new window
16.Lin, C. A.、Salwen, M. B.(1997)。Predicting the spiral of silence on a controversial public issue。The Howard Journal of Communication,8,129-141。  new window
17.Glynn, C. J.、Park, E.(1997)。Reference groups, opinion intensity, and public opinion expression。International Journal of Public Opinion Research,9(3),213-232。  new window
18.Glynn, C. J.、Hayes, A. F.、Shanahan, J.(1997)。Perceived Support for One's Opinions and Willingness to Speak Out。Public Opinion Quarterly,61,452-463。  new window
19.Davison, W. P.(1983)。The Third-Person Effect in Communication。Public Opinion Quarterly,47,1-15。  new window
20.Fields, J. M.、Schuman, H.(1976)。Public beliefs about the beliefs of the public。Public Opinion Quarterly,40(4),427-448。  new window
21.陳義彥(19940500)。我國選民的集群分析及其投票傾向的預測--從民國八十一年立委選舉探討。選舉研究,1(1),1-37。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.吳乃德(19960700)。自由主義和族群認同:搜尋臺灣民族主義的意識形態基礎。臺灣政治學刊,1,5-39。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth(1974)。The Spiral of Silence a Theory of Public Opinion。Journal of Communication,24(2),43-51。  new window
24.Salmon, C. T.、Neuwirth, K.(1990)。Perceptions of opinion climates and willingness to discuss the issue of abortion。Journalism Quarterly,67(3),567-577。  new window
25.徐火炎(19960700)。臺灣選民的國家認同與黨派投票行為:一九九一至一九九三年間的實證研究結果。臺灣政治學刊,1,85-127。new window  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.左龍娣(1991)。台灣地區民眾之意見察覺與表達意願研究--沈默螺旋模式在變遷社會適應性初探(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.楊嘉容(2000)。台灣選民的統獨思考模式與投票行為之分析(碩士論文)。東吳大學,台北。  延伸查詢new window
3.蔡炯青(1995)。選民的人口學特徵、政治興趣、傳播行為、涉入程度以及自認對選情了解程度等變項與第三者效果認知強弱之關聯性研究--以民國八十三年臺北市長選舉為例(碩士論文)。文化大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.王婷玉(1988)。沈默螺旋論初探(碩士論文)。國立政治大學,臺北。  延伸查詢new window
5.王湘茹(1992)。沉默螺旋理論之實證研究--以週休二日制為例(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.林淑敏(1991)。沉默螺旋理論實證研究(碩士論文)。輔仁大學,臺北。  延伸查詢new window
7.林麗雯(1992)。沉默螺旋理論的實證研究--以「國中畢業生自願就學方案」之議題為例(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth(1984)。The Spiral of Silence。Chicago:The University of Chicago Press。  new window
2.Lazarsfeld, Paul F.、Berelson, B.、Gaudet, H.(1948)。The People's Choice。New York:Columbia University Press。  new window
3.McQuail, Denis(1987)。Mass Communication Theory: An Introduction。Sage。  new window
圖書論文
1.Donsbach, W.、Stevenson, R. L.(1987)。Die Theorie der Schweiogespirale。Medienwirkungsforschung。Tübingen:J. C. B. Mohr。  new window
2.Glynn, Carroll J.、Ostman, Ronald E.、McDonald, Daniel G.(1995)。Opinions, perception, and social reality。Public opinion and the communication of consent。New York City, NY:The Guilford Press。  new window
3.Noelle-Neumann, E.、翁秀琪、李東儒、李岱穎(1994)。提出沉默假設。民意--沉默螺旋之旅。台北:遠流。  延伸查詢new window
4.Salmon, C.、Kline, F. G.(1985)。The spiral of silence ten years later: An examination and evaluation。Political communication yearbook 1984。Carbondale, Ill.:Southern Illinois University Press。  new window
5.Glynn, C. J.、McLeod, J. M.(1985)。Implications of the Spiral of Silence Theory for communication and public opinion research。Political communication yearbook 1984。Carbondale, IL:Southern Illinois University Press。  new window
6.翁秀琪(1996)。民意與大眾傳播研究的結合。大眾傳播理論與實證。臺北:三民。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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