本文試圖從台灣的兩岸經貿研究文獻中，抽取出一些深具影響力、且
目前正持續被教科書所予以引述的著作，進行簡介與方法論上的內部批評；
這些具有關聯的代表性著作所採用的理論架構具有某種特點，即將台灣資
本外流中國對前者國內產值的影響予以淨效果評估。筆者除了鋪陳此理論
模型所歷經的些許改造外，並將針對目前仍被普遍接受的關鍵假設作出檢
討，以說明：原本不甚起眼、似乎頗為自然的假設修正，卻已為該理論架
構之逐漸「無足輕重化」埋下了伏筆；其影響所及，不但無法排除將外流
資本視為國際間之「自由財」的可能，實則導致該架構淪為兩岸經貿研究
中「櫥窗展示」之用的角色，並使這些著作於理論與政策面向上的重要性
旁落。本文的重要主張之一乃是：基於現今機會成本概念的重要性，對此概
念的澄清將有助於凸顯外流資本之替代國內投資的程度並無法模糊化──更
具體的說，該替代程度應視為百分之百──並且在推估台灣產值的淨增減
上，本文的文獻對象便無法導出「無法於事前確切得知資本外流中國所影
響台灣產值增減之淨效果」的結論。也因此，結語部分將簡短地提出有待
發展的若干論點，用意除了延續這些文獻的持續攸關性外，並初步闡述在
何種意義上台灣必須容忍資本外流，但赴外投資可能轉向流入中國之現狀，
並不宜被擴大引申成戒急用忍政策即應全面廢除。

This article attempts to examine and assess, mainly from a
methodological viewpoint, some selected Taiwanese studies on crossstraits trade and investments which have been influential and widely
excepted in some textbooks. It should be noticed that these works share
common framework of modeling the net effect of Taiwan’s capital
outflows into China upon the former’s GDP. Aside from explicating
major intra-developments in the works, the article addresses the issue that
the latest revision of the key assumption for modeling substitution
between capital outflows and domestic investments infringes with the
traditional conception of opportunity costs considered properly, and
makes capitals more likely to be treated as free goods trans-and-internationally; thus further undermines these works in terms of their value for
further theoretical evolution and policy recommendations. If we keep on
conforming to the well-known economics edification-‘There is no such
thing as a free launch’ –reasonably, then the assertion of ‘we cannot infer
an exactly net effect of capital outflows on Taiwan’s GDP in advance’
should not be taken at its face value. In the concluding section, a tentative
argument against abolishing straightaway the policy of ‘patience over
haste’ would be proposed; and a critical question would also be raised,
that is, to what extent and in what sense should we endure capital
outflows?