今年（2014）9月初北韓最高領導人金正恩（Kim Jong-un）一段時間沒有參加正式活動，於是就有南韓與大陸網友繪聲會影地臆測年僅卅出頭的金正恩健康出現問題（如痛風等），甚至網絡瘋傳北韓發生政變，「金正恩已被軟禁」等。如稱北韓勞動黨二號人物黃炳誓（Hwang Pyong-su）10月初率領排名第三的勞動黨中央委員會書記崔龍海（Choe Ryong-hae）與排名第四負責對南韓事務的勞動黨中央書記金養健（Kim Yang-gon）乘坐金正恩的專機突訪南韓，並有金正恩的保鏢隨侍，參加仁川亞運會閉幕式以改善兩韓關係。來去匆匆，並罕見未佩戴領袖徽章，種種跡象都顯示金正恩已經失勢的可能性很大。但在消失40多天後金正恩再度拄著柺杖現身，戳破這些不實臆測。在此背景下，本文主旨即在討論金正恩政權的現況與當前兩韓關係。首先將論證金正恩政權的穩定與否，其次再剖析當前北韓所面臨的國際環境，主要聚焦於美國、中共與南韓對北韓政策的特徵，第三部份則是金正恩政府的因應對策、兩韓關係及未來發展趨勢，最後對我國的影響以及因應之道。

North Korea has been under Kim Jong-un for more than three years since Kim Jong II passed away in December 2011. There are lots of speculation revolving around the young supreme leader due to a lack of information. On the other hand, with the advent of Xi Jinping era, North Korea is confronting the most difficult time than ever before. In this article, the author attempts first to explore the Kim Jong-un regime in details and give explanations why those speculative stories are untrue, then analyze Kim Jong-un's efforts to break the diplomatic isolation, focusing in particular on inter-Korean relations, followed by North Korea's relations with Japan and Russia, and finally implications for Taiwan.