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題名:以效用理論評比住宅投資案之研究
書刊名:營建管理季刊
作者:黃克明
作者(外文):Huang, Ko-ming
出版日期:2015
卷期:102
頁次:頁33-50
主題關鍵詞:Utility theoryInvestment projectDecisionEvaluation效用理論投資專案決策評估
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:60
  • 點閱點閱:12
住宅投資案通常需要投入龐大資金、時間、物力與人力,在博取高利潤的同時也要承擔相當大的風險,其中以投資案基地選擇正確與否影響最為深遠。本文嘗試以基地條件與專案條件兩個構面及基地周圍環境、公共設施完善度、交通便利性、可用容積、可售單價及購地成本等6個評估因子,經由層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)建立評估住宅投資案之層級結構圖,再結合效用理論及風險意識組構出評估模型。本研究以高雄市3個候選方案為例,投資者打算從3個方案中選出最佳方案,將各方案之基地條件與專案條件納入評估模型中,配合評估者對風險意識之偏好或厭惡傾向,選出效用值較高之方案及評估執行該方案之獲利可能性,研究結果盼能提供業者作為評估投資方案之參考。
Housing developments usually involve enormous amounts of money, time, material resources, and labor, as well as potential for huge profits or losses. Among all factors that affect the success of housing developments in Taiwan, project site selection matters most. This paper proposes a model for project site selection based on evaluation of alternatives using the two dimensions of a project: surroundings conditions and project conditions, and comprising six criteria: site environment, degree of public facility, transportation convenience, usable floor area, saleable unit price, and land acquisition cost. For a given selection scenario, the utility theory is used to evaluate the alternatives on each criterion according to the decision makers' preferences, while the analytic hierarchy process is used to obtain the weights of the criteria. Then, the alternative with the highest total utility value is recommended for selection. A case study relating to an investor's selection of the optimal project site from three alternatives for building row houses is presented for illustration of the proposed model. It is hoped that the evaluation model can be applied as an aid in decision making for housing developments.
期刊論文
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圖書
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其他
1.Meen, G. P.(1995)。Cycles in Trends in UK Housing,University of Reading, Department of Economics。  new window
圖書論文
1.Harker, P. T.(1989)。The art and science of decision making: The analytic hierarchy process。The analytic hierarchy process applications and studies。Berlin:Springer。  new window
 
 
 
 
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