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題名：居住遷移與住宅選擇模式建立之研究--以住宅消費失衡與調整為觀點的解釋
作者：曾喜鵬
作者(外文)：Hsi-Peng Tseng
校院名稱：國立臺北大學
系所名稱：都市計劃研究所
指導教授：謝潮儀
薛立敏
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2004
主題關鍵詞：居住遷移；住宅選擇；無異曲線；住宅消費失衡；住宅消費調整；住宅次市場；間斷選擇模型；Probit模型；residential mobility；housing choice；indifference curve；housing consumption disequilibrium；housing consumption adjustment；housing submarkets；discrete choice model；Probit model
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居住遷移與現宅改善為國內住宅市場中常見的行為，兩者皆是家戶調整住宅消費以提昇其居住品質的方式，然而國內研究尚未針對此議題進行有系統的探討。準此，本研究連結居住遷移與住宅選擇的研究，從住宅消費失衡的觀點，建立了一個解釋家戶住宅消費調整之分析性模型，在模型中詳細說明了家戶住宅消費失衡的原因，同時針對當家戶處於不同住宅消費失衡狀態時之住宅調整行為進行推論，主要有兩個部分，第一是探討處於住宅消費失衡狀態下的家戶，如何在遷移換屋、現宅改善與不調整三個策略間做選擇的行為；第二是探討當家戶決定以遷移換屋來調整住宅消費時，為何會從都市內部的一個地方移動到另外一個地方的過程。本研究並依據此理論架構研擬三個假說，再分別用三個實證研究來驗證假說之正確性。
第一個實證研究為家戶住宅調整策略選擇的估計，利用主計處「人口及居住調查」之原始資料，透過多項Logit模型等方法，來探討家戶在遷移換屋、現宅改善與不調整三種策略間之選擇行為；第二個實證研究為遷移流向與住宅權屬選擇之估計，利用主計處「國內遷徙調查」之原始資料，以Probit模型來估計不同遷移流向者之住宅租擁選擇機率，以及住宅租擁變動者之遷移區位選擇機率，再藉由計算而得之平均機率的比較，來驗證假說的正確性；第三個實證研究為遷移者之住宅區位與權屬選擇之聯合估計，主要目的在探討遷移原因對遷移者住宅選擇的影響，做法是利用「國內遷徙調查」之原始資料，將遷移者依其遷移原因分成三類，利用多項及巢式Logit模型進行估計。三個實證結果大部份均能驗證假說所作之推論。
綜合而言，本研究將家戶之居住遷移與住宅選擇行為視為是一連續的選擇過程，彼此互有關聯，並在理論層次建立了一個連結兩者之分析性模型，除將現有居住遷移研究的議題加以延伸外，也在住宅選擇研究中納入了新觀點；此外，亦利用兩種調查資料，以機率模型進行三個與國內家戶住宅消費調整選擇有關之實證估計。研究結果除可更進一步瞭解台灣地區家戶之住宅消費調整選擇行為外，也可作為後續居住遷移與住宅選擇相關研究之基礎。
Residential mobility and home improvement are behaviors commonly seen in the housing market in Taiwan. Both are household’s strategies for adjusting housing consumption to improve the living quality. However, related researches on the topic are scant in Taiwan. This dissertation, by integrating researches on residential mobility and housing choice, established an analytical model from the perspective of housing consumption disequilibrium to explain the household’s housing adjustment behavior. The model begins by conducting a systematic framework to explain the shocks and channels of household’s disequilibrium in housing consumption, and two inferences were conducted subsequently as follows. The first is to discuss the decision made between moving, improving, and no adjustment by households experiencing different housing consumption disequilibrium; the second is to discuss why and how households move from one place to another within a specific metropolitan area when they have chosen moving as the way for adjusting their housing consumption. Three hypotheses were derived from the theoretical framework, and were tested by three empirical studies.
The first empirical study was to estimate the factors that influence the household’s decision on housing adjustment strategies choice by using the multinomial logit model. More specifically, the logit model is used to estimate the household’s choice between moving, improving, and no adjustment. The second empirical study was the estimation of mobility flows and housing tenure choices. The movers within Taipei Metropolitan areas were selected as target for empirical test, and the Probit model was used to estimate and calculate the homeownership probabilities for movers of different moving directions, and the probabilities of moving into Taipei City for movers that changed their housing tenure. The third empirical study is to empirically estimate the effects of reasons for moving on the mover’s joint decisions on housing location and housing tenure choice. The joint decision nature was described within the discrete choice models. The effects of the reasons for moving were analyzed by dividing the movers into three groups according to the moving reasons and incorporated into the logit model structure. The results of three empirical studies proved the three hypotheses in some extent.
In conclusion, this dissertation deemed the household’s decision on residential mobility and housing choice a continuous decision-making process with interconnected relationship, and established an analytical model that bridges up the above two on theoretical level. This analytical model not only extends the current research issues on residential mobility, some new viewpoints, for example, the effects of reasons for moving on housing demand, were also brought into the current housing studies. Moreover, the probability models were used to empirically estimate three decisions related to residential mobility and housing adjustment strategies choices in Taiwan. The results both from the establishment of analytical model and empirical studies provided further understanding of the housing consumption adjustment behavior in Taiwan, as well as foundations for future researches on residential mobility and housing choice.
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