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題名：民主轉型過程中政黨的重組：臺灣地區選民的民主價值取向、政黨偏好與黨派投票改變之研究
書刊名：人文及社會科學集刊
作者：徐火炎
作者(外文)：Shyu, Huoyan
出版日期：1992
卷期：5:1
頁次：頁213-263
主題關鍵詞：選舉；民主轉型；政黨重組；選民；民主價值取向；政黨偏好；黨派投票；臺灣
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(40) 博士論文(9) 專書(3) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:38
  • 共同引用共同引用:87
  • 點閱點閱:130
本文認為要了解臺灣在解除戒嚴前後的政治民主化轉型，除了必須考慮到總體層次的經社發展與變遷結果、國內外的有利環境條件外，更重要的是不能偏廢或忽略生活在轉型過程中選民大眾的態度、價值與行為等個體層次上的改變。
作者檢視解嚴前後歷次選舉投票結果的政黨得票比率之變化，發現這段期間國民黨與民進黨在選舉競爭的勢力消長，呈現出一種「持續性的政黨重組」現象。這種政黨重組的趨勢與解嚴前後的民主化過程，具有相合致的同步發展。本文利用民國72至78年之間三次增額立委選舉與80年第二屆國代選舉的全省性調查資料，來分析選民在解嚴前後的民主價值取向、政黨偏好與黨派投票行為之改變。分析的結果，一方面發現解嚴前後的持續性政黨重組現象，主要是中立的選民逐漸具有黨派性的一種變遷結果，另方面也發現選民的民主價值取向會影響他們對政黨的偏好，而且兩者也決定了選民的黨派投票。個體層次上選民的民主價值取向、政黨偏好與黨派投票行為之改變，可以視為是推動臺灣政治在總體層次上、走向競爭性政黨政治與民主化發展的重要驅策力量。
This paper argues that Taiwan's democratic transition by lifting martial law is hardly explained by looking only at its preconditions of socio-economic changes at the macro level without exploring those changes in individual attitudes, values and behaviors of the mass at the micro level. Electoral changes in popular vote-share of political parties in the 1980s is identified as a secular trend of party realignment, a synchronized mass political change as Taiwan was taking off economically. A upward trend of growing democratic values as well as changes in partisan preference toward the opposition, the DPP, is analyzed to signify the party alignment found in the 1980s. Voters' democratic values are thus found highly correlated with their partisan preferences, and both are contributing to predict partisan vote-choices in the elections. It is found that Taiwan's secular party realignment trend occurred in the 1980s is neither of the so-called "dealignment-realignment" process nor of a "switching of party identification" phenomenon. It is simply a trend of electoral change in that a significant portion of non-partisan voters has become more partisan, which is a result of increasing intensified party competition and electoral mobilization in the period of Taiwan's democratic transition. These changes in individual democratic values, party preferences and partisan vote-choices are asserted to have been associated and interacting with Taiwan's democratic transition. @@@
期刊論文
1.Hagle, Timothy M.、Mitchell, Glenn E. II(1992)。Goodness-of-Fit Measures for Probit and Logit。American Journal of Political Science，36(3)，762-784。  new window
2.Huntington, Samuel P.(1984)。Will More Countries Become Democratic?。Political Science Quarterly，99(2)，193-218。  new window
3.Key, V. O. Jr.(1955)。A theory of critical elections。Journal of Politics，17(1)，3-18。  new window
4.Huntington, Samuel P.(1971)。The Change to Change: Modernization, Development, and Politics。Comparative Politics，3，283-322。  new window
5.Key, V. O. Jr.(1959)。Secular Realignment and the Party System。Journal of Politics，21(2)，198-210。  new window
6.Converse, Philip E.(1961)。Stability and Change in 1960: A Reinstating Election。American Political Science Review，49，269-280。  new window
7.Barnes, Samuel H.(1988)。Party Identification and Party Closeness in Comparative Perspective。Political Behavior，10(3)，215-231。  new window
8.Gillespie, Michael W.(1977)。Log-Linear Techniques and the Regression Analysis of Dummy Dependent Variables: Further Bases for Comparison。Sociological Methods and Research，6(1)，103-122。  new window
9.Cumings, Bruce(1984)。The Origin and Development of the Northeast Asian Political Economy: Industrial Sectors and Political Consequences。International Organization，38(1)，1-40。  new window
10.Inglehart, Ronald、Hoschstein, Avram(1972)。Alignment and Dealignment of the Electorate in France and the United States。Comparative Political Studies，5，343-372。  new window
11.Pomper, Gerald M.(1967)。Classification of Presidential Elections。Journal of Politics，29(3)，535-566。  new window
12.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1981)。The Decline of Political Partisanship in the United States: Negative or Neutrality。American Political Science Review，75，941-950。  new window
13.胡佛(19781100)。權力的價值取向：概念架構的建構與評估。社會科學論叢，27，3-40。  延伸查詢new window
14.Lipset, Seymour Martin(1959)。Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy。The American Political Science Review，53(1)，69-105。  new window
15.徐火炎(19911100)。政黨認同與投票抉擇：臺灣地區選民的政黨印象、偏好與黨派投票行為之分析。人文及社會科學集刊，4(1)，1-57。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.Winckler, Edwin A.(1994)。Institutionalization and Participation on Taiwan: From Hard to Soft Authoritarianism?。China Quarterly，99，481-499。  new window
會議論文
1.胡佛、徐火炎(1983)。結構性的政治文化：概念、類型與面向的探討。第三次社會指標會議，47-82。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.胡佛、陳德禹、朱志宏(1980)。政治系統的權力價值取向及交互作用：內湖地區個案研究。  延伸查詢new window
2.雷飛龍、陳義彥(1991)。臺灣地區選民的投票行為：一個理論模式的探索。  延伸查詢new window
3.雷飛龍、陳義彥(1987)。轉型期社會中的投票行為：臺灣地區選民的科際整合研究 (計畫編號：NSC76-0301-H004-12)。臺北：國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Nie, Norman H.、Verba, Sidney、Petrocik, John R.(1979)。The Changing American Voter。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
2.Cnudde, Charles F.、Neubauer, Deane E.(1969)。Empirical Democratic Theory。Chicago, IL：Markham Books。  new window
3.Barnes, Samuel Henry、Kaase, Max Willy(1979)。Political Action: Mass Participation in Five Western Democracies。Sage。  new window
4.Aldrich, John H.、Nelson, Forrest D.(1984)。Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models。Beverly Hills：Sage。  new window
5.O'Donnell, Guillermo A.(1973)。Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics。Berkeley, CA：Institute of International Studies, University of California。  new window
6.Steinberg, Dan(1985)。Logit: A Supplementary Module for SYSTAT。Salford Systems。  new window
7.Pye, Lucian W.(1985)。Asian Power and Politics: The Cultural Dimensions of Authority。Cambridge, MA：The MIT Press。  new window
8.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1984)。The Decline of American Political Parties, 1952-80。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
9.Maddala, G. S.(1983)。Limited-dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometics。Cambridge University Press。  new window
10.Fainsod, Mene(1963)。How Russia is Ruled。Harvard University Press。  new window
11.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。New York：John Wiley and Sons, Inc.。  new window
圖書論文
1.Hu, Fu、Chu, Yun-han(1992)。Electoral Competition and Political Democratization。Political Change in Taiwan。Lynne Rienner Publishers。  new window
2.Przeworski, Adam(1988)。Democracy as a Contingent Outcome of Conflicts。Constitutionalism and Democracy。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
3.Przeworski, Adam(1986)。Some Problems in the Study of the Transition to Democracy。Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Prospects for Democracy。Baltimore, MD：Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
4.胡佛(19820000)。有權與無權：政治值價取向的探討。社會及行為科學研究的中國化。臺北：中央研究院民族學研究所。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Beck, Paul A.(1986)。Choice, Context, and Consequence: Beaten and Unbeaten Paths toward a Science of Electoral Behavior。Political Science: The Science of Politics。New York：Agathon Press。  new window
6.Converse, Philip E.(1966)。The Concept of Normal Vote。Elections and the Political Order。New York：John Wiley。  new window
7.胡佛、徐火炎(1983)。結構性的政治文化：概念、類型與面向的探討。中央研究院三民主義研究所叢刊。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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