本文利用動態因子模型估計台灣的同時經濟指標，並據以建立台灣的領 先經濟指標。研究結果顯示，我們的同時指標估計值與經建會的景氣同時綜合指 數之間，存在若干差異。而兩指數間最大的差異，在於經建會的同時指數所顯示 的景氣高峰點，有若干次落後於我們的同時指標所顯示的景氣高峰點。我們亦發 現此差異係來自於在建立指數時，我們所選用的變數皆為衡量實質面的總體變 數，而經建會卻亦採用了若干名目變數。

　　　　　In this paper, we construct Taiwan's coincident economic indicatorthrough the estimation of a one-factor dynamic model. We find some discrepancies between our coincident indicator and the one constructed by theCouncil of Economic Planning and Development (CEPD). In particular, ourindicator reaches earlier the peaks of some cycles than those of the CEPD's. We also find that these discrepancies are largely due to the fact that theCEPD adopts some nominal variables (e. g., nominal sales of manufacturesand nominal wage rate) when constructing the indicator while we employonly real variables.