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題名：「固定樣本連續訪談法」(panel studies)樣本流失問題之探討
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：陳陸輝
作者(外文)：Chen, Lu-huei
出版日期：1999
卷期：6:1
頁次：頁175-206
主題關鍵詞：內在效度；外在效度；樣本流失；固定樣本連續訪談法；政治參與；調查研究；Internal validity；External validity；Mortality；Panel studies；Political participation；Survey research
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(9) 博士論文(3) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:8
  • 共同引用共同引用:33
  • 點閱點閱:50
　　　　　在固定樣本連續訪談法（panel studies）中，受訪者非隨機性的流失 （ mortality ）， 對研究的效度會產生負面的影響。 本文作者利用美國全國選舉研究（ American National Election Studies; ANES ）在西元 1990 到 1992 年進行的固定樣本 連續訪問的資料進行分析， 發現了接受續訪的樣本（ panel sample ）與流失的樣本（ mortality sample ），在政治興趣、政治知識以及政治參與上有著顯著的差異。 因此，當 我們的研究目的是在推論母體在政治興趣、政治知識以及政治參與的分佈時，「樣本流失」 的問題會對研究的「外在效度」（ external validity ）產生顯著的影響。 當影響受訪者是否參與後續訪問的因素，與我們研究模型中的變數相互關聯時，「樣本流失 」也會對研究的「內在效度」（ internal validity ） 造成傷害。本文作者檢視「樣本流 失」對投票參與模型中，解釋變數的參數估計的影響時發現：「樣本流失」使我們低估了受 訪者年齡以及對報上選舉消息注意程度這兩個變數，對其投票與否的影響力。當我們要解釋 國會選舉中現任者的優勢時，「樣本流失」使我們高估了民主黨議員現任者優勢的重要性， 也低估了共和黨現任議員的重要性。 由於受訪者對調查研究的興趣以及態度，會影響他們參與訪談的意願，因此，作者認為，調 查研究工作者應該努力讓受訪者覺得接受訪問是一個愉快經驗，減少調查研究的拒訪率，使 研究結果更為精確。
　　　　　Mortality is a problem when it exits differential loss of respondents during our panel studies. By examining the 1990-1992 NES panel studies, I demonstrate that there were significant differences between the panel sample and the mortality sample on their political interest, political knowledge, and political participation. Mortality undermines the external validity when our research interest is to describe the political interest, political knowledge, and political participation of the mass public. When the selection process correlates with some variables in our model, mortality also undermines the internal validity of our research. I demonstrate that we will underestimate the importance of the respondent's age and his/her interest on newspaper on explaining his /her voting participation when we have the mortality problem in our panel studies. When we want to explain the importance of incumbent advantage, mortality makes us overestimate the importance of Democrat's incumbency and underestimate the importance of Republican incumbency. Participating in panel studies is a function of the respondent's interest and attitudes toward surveys. We shall always keep this in mind since the respondent's cooperation is the key point for the success of survey research. As the nonresponse rate increases in most surveys, social scientists have the obligation to make our interview more pleasant for our respondents.
期刊論文
1.Jennings, M. Kent、Markus, Gregory B.(1984)。Partisan Orientations Over the Long Hall: Results From the Three-Wave Political Socialization Panel Study。American Political Science Review，78(4)，1000-1018。  new window
2.Achen, Christopher H.(1975)。Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response。American Political Science Review，69(4)，1218-1231。  new window
3.Brady, Henry E.、Verba, Sidney、Schlozman, Kay Lehman(1995)。Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation。The American Political Science Review，89(2)，271-294。  new window
4.Converse, Philip E.、Markus, Gregory B.(1979)。Plus ça change…: The New CPS Election Study Panel。American Political Science Review，73(1)，2-49。  new window
5.Green, Donald Philip、Palmquist, Bradley(1990)。Of Artifacts and Partisan Instability。American Journal of Political Science，34(3)，872-901。  new window
6.盛杏湲(19941100)。Selection Bias in Vote Choice Models。選舉研究，1(2)，221-250。new window  new window
7.Verba, Sidney(1996)。The Citizen Respondent: Sample Surveys and American Democracy。American Political Science Review，90，1-7。  new window
圖書
1.Hamilton, Lawrence C.(1992)。Regression with Graphics: A Second Course in Applied Statistics。Pacific Grove, CA：Brooks/ Cole publishing Company。  new window
2.Brehm, John(1993)。The Phantom Respondents。Ann Arbor：The University of Michigan Press。  new window
3.Johnston, Jack、DiNardo, John(1997)。Econometric Methods。McGraw-Hill。  new window
4.Jennings, M. K.、Niemi, Richard G.(1981)。Generations and Politics。New Jersey：Princeton University Press。  new window
5.Kidder, Louise H.、Judd, Charles M.、Smith, Eliot R.(1986)。Research Methods in Social Relations。New York：CBS College Publishing。  new window
6.King, Gary、Keohane, Robert O.、Verba, Sidney(1994)。Designing Social Inquiry。Princeton University Press。  new window
7.Teixeira, Ruy A.(1987)。Why Americans Don't Vote: Turnout Decline in United States 1960-1984。New York：Greenwood Press。  new window
8.Smith, Eric R. A. N.(1989)。The Unchanging American Voter。University of California Press。  new window
9.洪永泰(1996)。戶中選樣之研究。臺北：時英出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Abramson, Paul R.、Aldrich, John H.、Rohde, David W.(1998)。Change and Continuity in the 1996 Elections。Washington, DC：CQ Press。  new window
11.Achen, Christopher H.(1982)。Interpreting and Using Regression。Sage。  new window
12.Aldrich, John H.、Nelson, Forrest D.(1984)。Linear Probability, Logit and Probit Models。Sage。  new window
13.Cook, Thomas D.、Campbell, Donald T.、Day, A.(1979)。Quasi-experimentation: Design and analysis issues for field settings。Boston, MA：Chicago：Houghton Mifflin Boston：Rand-McNally。  new window
14.Herbst, Susan(1993)。Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics。Chicago, Illinois：University of Chicago Press。  new window
15.Jacobson, Gary C.(1997)。The Politics of Congressional Elections。New York：Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.。  new window
16.Kish, Leslie(1965)。Survey Sampling。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
17.Manheim, Jarol B.、Rich, Richard C.(1995)。Empirical Political Analysis: Research Methods in Political Science。New York：Longman。  new window
18.Niemi, G. Richard、Weisberg, Herbert F.(1993)。Controversies in Voting Behavior。Washington, DC：Congressional Quarterly Inc.。  new window
19.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1994)。The Decline of American Political Parties 1952-1992。Cambridge, Massachusetts：Harvard University Press。  new window
20.Gujarati, Damodar N.(1995)。Basic Econometrics。McGraw-Hill。  new window
21.Campbell, Donald T.、Stanley, Julian C.(1966)。Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research。Rand-McNally。  new window
22.Verba, Sidney、Nie, Norman H.(1972)。Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality。New York：Harper & Row。  new window
圖書論文
1.洪永泰、陳陸輝(1995)。研究方法。選舉行為與台灣地區的政治民主化--從八十三年省市長選舉探討。台北：國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
2.Converse, Philip E.(1964)。The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics。Ideology and Discontent。Free Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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