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題名：決策樹應用於連續性照護退休社區之市場區隔基礎研究
書刊名：經營管理論叢
作者：陳亭羽／賀千盈
作者(外文)：Chen, Ting-yu／He, Qian-ying
出版日期：2006
卷期：2:2
頁次：頁61-84
主題關鍵詞：長期照護；連續性照護退休社區；決策樹；市場區隔；區隔基礎；Long-term care；Continuing care retirement community；Decision tree；Market segmentation；Segmentation base
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社會變遷導致高齡者對於長期照護機構的需求逐年提高，加上臺灣現有之長期照護機構不論社區式或機構式皆有其缺失，故連續性照護退休社區提供了高齡者除社區式與機構式照護外的另一種退休安排的選擇。國內目前針對連續性照護退休社區的市場區隔研究尚未涵蓋完整之服務設施項目，本研究目的以決策樹演算法找出市場區隔及有效區分市場區隔之區隔基礎，以瞭解完整的連續性照護退休社區所應提供的服務類型，並提供有意在臺灣經營連續性照護退休社區之企業，有相關資訊及模式參考。本研究以人口統計變數、連續性照護退休社區提供之五大類服務設施問項為自變數，經資料前置處理後，選取三項不同的依變數，利用決策樹建立預測模型，得出市場區隔及市場區隔變數，並以卡方檢定與Schiffman and Kanuk學者提出之市場區隔準則檢定區隔變數的強健性。實證結果顯示，若以「入住意願」為目標，則最佳市場區隔變數為「影響入住選擇因素區隔」、「財務協助之工作抵費」、「不動產擁有狀況」及「每月可支配所得」。若以「影響入住選擇因素區隔」為目標，則最佳市場區隔變數為「入住意願」、「子女狀況」、「獨立自理能力」、「不動產擁有狀況」及「目前住處之房屋所有權」。
Global population is growing older, and the elder market becomes an important segment gradually, especially the needs for long-term care. In Taiwan, a new model, “Continuing Care Retirement Community (CCRC),” is proposed for the retired people. In the previous research, there was no any variable about the services and facilities within a complete CCRC used for segmenting the CCRC market in Taiwan. Therefore, the goals of our research are not only to understand the types of services and facilities a complete CCRC should provide, but also to use decision tree in finding the valid bases of market segmentation that can effectively segment the CCRC market in Taiwan. We analyze the result and provide suggestions for the enterprises that want to operate the CCRC business in Taiwan. We take the demographic variables and variables about the five types of services and facilities a CCRC should provide as independent variables. There are three cases for decision tree induction, for each case we use different dependent variable. After building the tree-like prediction models, the bases of market segmentation which are took out from the tree model must be testified by Chi-square test and evaluated by Schiffman and Kanuk's criteria. The results are as the follows. If “the will to live in a CCRC” is the dependent variable, the best segmenting variables are “factors effect the will to live in a CCRC (clustered),” “financial support-working,” “owned realty,” and “monthly income.” If “factors effect the will to live in a CCPC ” (clustered) is the dependent variable, the best segmenting variables are “the will to live in a CCRC,” “children,” “self-conducting,” “owned realty,” and “residence ownership.” dimension of service quality is not revealed positively associated with customer loyalty. The corporate image and relationship quality do play the mediator roles between service quality and customer loyalty.
期刊論文
1.Vellido, A.、Lisboa, P. J. G.、Meehan, K.(1999)。Segmentation of the on-line shopping market using neural networks。Expert Systems with Applications，17，303-314。  new window
2.劉雯(2002)。銀髮族市場發展潛力不容小覷。貿協商情周報，14，10-11。  延伸查詢new window
3.謝明玲(2004)。找尋銀法族的香格里拉。消費者報導雜誌，277，46-49。  延伸查詢new window
4.Bernard, A. K.、Kirsten, A. S.(2001)。Continuing Care Retirement Communities (with forms)。The Practical real Estate Lawyer，17(3)，35-61。  new window
5.Conover, C. J.、Sloan, F. A.(1995)。Bankruptcy Risk and State Regulation of Continuing Care Retirement Communities。Inquiry，32，444-456。  new window
6.Dasgupta, C. G.、Despensa, G. S.、Ghose, S.(1994)。Comparing the Predictive Performance of a Neural Network Model With Some Traditional Market Response Model。International Journal of Forecastings，235-244。  new window
7.Hruschka, H.、Natter, M.(1999)。Comparing Performance of Feed-forward Neural Nets and K-means for Cluster-based Market Segmentation。European Journal of Operational Research，114，346-353。  new window
8.Lawton, M. P.(1998)。Three Functions of the residential Environment。Journal of Housing for the Elderly，5，35-50。  new window
9.Neil, A. R.、Prashad(1988)。Development Issues in Continuing Care Retirement Communities。The Journal of Real Estate Development，3(3)，12-28。  new window
10.Smith, Wendell R.(1956)。Product differentiation and market segmentation as alternative marketing strategies。Journal of Marketing，21(1)，3-8。  new window
11.陳亭羽、林政賢(20050600)。高齡者進住長期照護機構意願之探討--人口統計變數、生活型態、行為變數與涉入程度之影響分析。經營管理論叢，1(1)，47-77。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.伊慶春、陳玉華(19981000)。奉養父母方式與未來奉養態度之關聯。人口學刊，19，1-32。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.陳亭羽、龔文華、賀千盈(2005)。高齡者進住連續性照護退休社區之意願及影響因素探討。第三屆全國當代行銷學術研討會。嘉義縣。333-345。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.內政部統計處(1999)。臺閩地區高齡者福利機構需求概況調查報告。  延伸查詢new window
2.行政院衛生署醫政處(200112)。老人長期照護三年計畫成果報告。  延伸查詢new window
3.吳淑瓊、呂寶靜、盧瑞芬、國立臺灣大學公共衛生學研究所［執行］(1998)。配合我國社會福利制度之長期照護政策研究。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.劉燕瑩(2000)。都會區中齡者對連貫性照顧退休社區態度之研究--以台北市為例(碩士論文)。長庚大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.龔文華(2004)。高齡者進住養生文化村意願之影響因素(碩士論文)。長庚大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.潘平定(1996)。台南地區小汽車消費者行為與市場區隔之研究--類神經網路之應用(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Schiffman, L. G.、Kanuk, L. L.(2004)。Comsumer Behavior。New Jersey：Prentice-Hall。  new window
2.經建會(1999)。台灣地區北、中、南及東部區域人口推計。行政院經建會。  延伸查詢new window
3.Abramovice, B.(1988)。Long Term Care Administration。New York：Haworth。  new window
4.Anne, R.S.、Nancy, L.S.(1992)。The Continuing Care Retirement Communities。Springer Publishing Company。  new window
5.BERSON, A.、SMITH, S.、THEARING, K.(2000)。Building Data Mining Application for CRM。New York：McGraw-Hill。  new window
6.Breiman, L.、Friedman, J. H.、Olshen, R. A.、Stone, C. J.(1984)。Classification and Regression Trees。Monterey, CA：Wadsworth and Brooks/Cole。  new window
7.Cabena, P.、Hadjinian, P.、Stadler, R.、Verhees, J.、Zanasi, A.(1998)。Discovering Data Mining From Concept to Implementation。Prentice Hall。  new window
8.Sherwood, S.、Ruchlin, H. S.、Sherwood, C. C.、Morris, S. A.(1997)。Continuing Care Retirement Communities。The Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
9.Wedel, M.、Kamakura, W.A.(2000)。Market Segmentation: Conceptual and Methodological Foundations。Boston Dordrecht London：Kluwer Academic Publishers。  new window
10.內政部統計處(2004)。臺閩地區現住人口數年齡分配。  延伸查詢new window
11.阮玉梅(1999)。長期照護概論。台北：華杏出版股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
12.Quinlan, J. Rose(1993)。C4.5: Programs for Machine Learning。Morgan Kaufmann Publishers。  new window
13.Kolter, P.(1998)。Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, Implementation, and Control。London。  new window
14.Han, Jiawei、Kamber, Micheline(2001)。Data mining: concepts and techniques。Oxford, CA：Morgan Kaufmann Publisher, Inc.。  new window
15.Barker, R. L.(1991)。Social Work Dictionary。Sliver Spring, Maryland：National Association of Social Workers (NASW)。  new window
16.謝美娥(19930000)。老人長期照護的相關論題。臺北：桂冠。new window  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.HELPGUIDE。Continuing-Care Retirement Communities，http://www.helpguide.org/elder/continuing_care_retirement_communities.htm - services。  new window
2.行政院經濟建設委員會(20040806)。中華民國臺灣地區民國93年至140年人口推計，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/indexset/indexcontent.jsp， 2004/12/10。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.謝春滿(2003)。你憑什麼退休--人口老化危機降臨。今週刊。名欣圖書。  延伸查詢new window
2.Raper, A. T.、Kalicki, A. C.(1988)。American Association of Homes for the Aging。National Continuing Care Directory。Washington, D.C.：American Association of Retired Persons。  new window
3.Bacon, L. D.(2002)。Marketing。Handbook of Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery。OXFORD University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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